1. Sarah Cornell Andrew Watkinson, Mikis Tsimplis & Tyndall RT4 team The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils – NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and also receives some support from the DTI. UK Offshore Wind 2004 BWEA – 3 March Flood and Sea Surge: The UK’s Coastline and Global Climate Change

2. Tyndall Consortium School of Management Institute for Transport Studies Energy Research Unit Rutherford Appleton Laboratory

3. Advancing the science of integration Developing responses Motivating society Tyndall Objectives

4. 1.Integrating Frameworks 2.Decarbonising Modern Societies 3.Adapting to Climate Change 4.Sustaining the Coastal Zone Tyndall Research Themes Theme 1 – a systems approach Theme 3 – a questions approach Theme 2 – a targets approach Theme 4 – a place-based approach

5. RT4: Sustaining the Coastal Zone …To understand and anticipate key processes and interactions in the coastal zone as the necessary basis for flexible adaptation to climate change and altering environmental conditions Vulnerability assessment Regional coastal simulator Governance & stakeholder dialogue Outreach and the Foresight process

6. A vulnerable coastline Drivers of flood risk Coastal erosion Strategic assessments Environmental futures Integrated modelling Uncertainties Communication The coastline of south-eastern UK, assuming 6m of sea level rise in the wake of Greenland Ice Sheet melting

7. Flooding – drivers World Markets Global Sustainability National Enterprise Local Stewardship 1 Surges Public attitudes and expectations Surges 2 Waves Vegetation and conveyance Public attitudes and expectations Public attitudes and expectations 3 Public Attitudes and expectations Stakeholder behaviour Waves Stakeholder behaviour 4 Coastal Morphology and sediment supply Environment, ecosystems and habitats Coastal morphology and sediment supply Precipitation 5 Surges Precipitation River morphology and sediment supply 6 Land use (inc. urbanisation0 Precipitation Land use (inc. urbanisation0 Waves 7 Relative sea level rise River morphology and sediment supply Stakeholder behaviour Coastal morphology and sediment supply 8 Stakeholder behaviour Coastal morphology and sediment supply Relative sea level rise Environment, ecosystems and habitats 9 Science, engineering and technology Relative sea Level rise Agriculture and rural land management Relative sea Level rise 10 River morphology and sediment supply Land use (inc. urbanisation) Science, engineering and technology Agriculture and rural land management 11 Agriculture and rural land management Agricultural impacts Land use (inc. urbanisation) 12 Infrastructure impacts Waves Vegetation and conveyance Vegetation and conveyance Foresight 2004 …

8. Flooding – responses the potential of responses to reduce flood risk Foresight 2004

9. Vulnerability assessment STORM SURGES

10. Change in 50-yr surge height (2080s, high emissions, high SLR) Source: Jason Lowe, UKCIP STOWASUS-2100 EU ENV4-CT97-0498 Source: Mikis Tsimplis

11. Vulnerability and the NAO Strong influence on European climate Not necessarily linked to Global Change Distinguishable on-ground parameters

12. Tide and Surge model (0.5° x 0.33°, ~35 km) Tides + Wind stress + Sea Level pressure (1955-2000) Wakelin et al., 2003, GRL

13. Vulnerability and the NAO – Western Scotland Annual NAO Index & Scottish precipitation relationships ? Precipitation is mean annual total ? Time series = 1931 - 2000: Data source: Hadley Centre/CRU Gridded data for Scotland J. Coll and S. Gibb Ferry disruptions have also been examined.

14. Strong gradient in wave height from east to west SLR brings effect of waves further inshore in areas with wide tidal flats Cliffs (E) increasing wave height offshore increases wave height at coast Tidal flats (W) increasing wave height offshore does not increase wave height at coast.  Wind direction  change in longshore transport Source: Judith Wolf, POL Wave climates – North Norfolk Wave model (SWAN) for Norfolk STOWASUS shows <1% increase in the extremes.

15. Climate change and sea level rise Policy options Physical and habitat states Responses e.g. biodiversity A Regional Coastal Simulator An innovative decision-support tool for regional decision makers where climate change scenarios and policy response options are integrated with information on sediment transport, biodiversity, sea defences & socio-economic activities.

16. 1. Nested Design Regional Sub-regional Local 2. Multi-Disciplinary Approach Biodiversity Socio-economics Coastal Defences Sediment Sea Level Rise 3. Feedback Loops Stakeholders Coastal Simulator Scientific Input Integrated modelling

17. East Anglia Prototype Coastal Simulator Lincolnshire Essex Vulnerability Assessment Simulator developmen t Estuarine biogeochemistr y Tiered Flood Risk Biodiversit y & Tourism Virtual Reality GIS Sediment transport & cliff recession MCDA & Stakeholders Estuarine model Geomorphology The political arena

18. Cliff recession rate Coastal erosion Sediment supply from cliff Profile shape Shore orientation Beach volume and shape Sediment transport rate Wave conditions, sea-level rise and tide

19. Governance and stakeholder interaction County Councils District Councils Countryside Agency COASTAL MANAGEMENT AUTHORITIES Regional Development Authority Environment Agency English Nature Consultative Forum Flood Defence Committees commercial local parishes Chief Executive Planning Strategy wildlife recreation land ownership farming fishing navigation Public Private Partnerships Co-decisional planning Statutory Coastal Management Plan Sustainability Partnerships

20. Tyndall°Centre for Climate Change Research Headquarters: School of Environmental Sciences University of East Anglia Norwich NR4 7TJ 01603 591375 www.tyndall.ac.uk