1. CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACT ON WATER RESOURCES VANDANA RAO, Ph. D
CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACT ON WATER RESOURCES VANDANA RAO, Ph.D. Massachusetts Executive Office of Energy and Environmental Affairs November 05, 2014 Mass Envirothon UMass Amherst
Introduction Me
EOEA
On behalf of Governor and Secretary

2. Granted, we don’t have this……
Location: Mumbai (Bombay), India

3. Or this………

4. But we are ALREADY seeing more of this….
July 10, 2010 Storm – 4 inches in 1 hour
Source: John Bolduc, Environmental Planner, City of Cambridge

5. and this…….

6. and this…..
Source: Boston Globe
Plum Island

7. And on the other hand…..
………….this too!

8. So what is really going on?

9. GLOBAL SCALE

10. Atmospheric CO2
Atmospheric CO2, CH4 and N2O have increased at levels unprecedented in at least last 800,000 yrs
CO2 has increased by 40% since pre-industrial times primarily from fuel emissions and net land use change emissions
Ocean has absorbed 30% of emitted CO2 causing ocean acidification

11. Observed Global Atmospheric Changes
Each of the last three decades has been successfully warmer than any preceding decade since 1850
Source: IPCC 5th Assessment Report, 2013

12. Predicted Global Atmospheric Changes
Source: IPCC 5th Assessment Report, 2013

13. Predicted Surface Temperature
Source: IPCC 5th Assessment Report, 2013

14. Global Sea Level Rise (SLR)
Rate of SLR since the mid 19th century has been larger than the mean rate during the previous two millennia (high confidence).
Between SLR rose by 0.19m

15. Source: Draft National Climate Assessment

16. Ice & Snow Cover Over last 2 decades,
Greenland & Antarctic ice sheets losing mass
Glaciers continued to shrink worldwide
Arctic sea ice & Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover continued to decrease
Very High Confidence that extent of northern hemisphere snow cover has decreased since the mid-20th century – 1.6% per decade for March and April; 11.7% per decade for June over period.
Source: IPCC 5th Assessment Report, 2013

17. REGIONAL SCALE

18. Observed Precipitation
Image Credit: New England Integrated Sciences and Assessment,

19. Observed Precipitation
Annual Total
Heavy Downpours
Observed Change in Annual Heavy Precipitation i.e. 1% of all daily events from 1901 to 2012
Observed Annual total precipitation changes for compared to
Source: Climate Change Impacts in the United States. U.S. National Climate Assessment, 2014

20. Precipitation Flooding
Increased precipitation
Left: showing percentage increases in heavy precipitation (heaviest 1% of all events) from 1958 to 2007 for each US Region. Clear trends in the Northeast towards heavy precipitation.
Right: the frequency of extreme storms from 1948 to Northeast has seen the greatest increase in the frequency of extreme storm events.
Percent increase in amount of precipitation falling in very heavy events (heaviest 1% of all daily events) from 1958 to 2012
Source: U.S. Global Change Research Program
Source: When It Rains It Pours, Envi. America, 2012

21. Predicted Precipitation

22. Comparing 100-year 24-hour rain event – Old vs New data
More Intense Storms 100-year - 24 hour Design Storm Comparison County
TP-40 Rainfall ( )
(inches)
NRCC Rainfall – aka Cornell
( )
Percent
Change
NOAA - Atlas14 draft
( )
Barnstable
7.1
8.2
16 %
Between 7.0 – 8.51
Berkshire
6.4
7.6
19 %
Bristol
7.0
8.6
22 %
Dukes
7.2
8.3
15 %
Essex
8.8
38 %
Franklin
6.2
7.4
Hampden
6.5
8.0
23 %
Hampshire
Middlesex
8.5
33 %
Plymouth
6.9
8.7
26 %
Worcester
29 %

23. More Water……YAAAYY!!! .
So, What’s the problem??

24. Impacts from Typical Development
The Problem………….
Impacts from Typical Development
Pre-Development

25. The Problem…………. High Evapo-Transpiration
Decreased recharge because of
less snowpack
less snow melt
high intensity storm events
Short term droughts

26. Low Flow due to Excessive Water Supply Pumping
In addition………
Low Flow due to Excessive Water Supply Pumping
Aquifers provide 70-80% of river baseflow (up to 100% in drought)

27. Potential Effects of Sea-Level Rise on Coastal Hydrologic Systems
and………
Potential Effects of Sea-Level Rise on Coastal Hydrologic Systems
2. Higher Water Table, Reduced Depth-to-Water
1. Higher Sea Level
3: Increased
Baseflow
4: Saltwater Intrusion

28. and……… 4 foot compliance without SLR, but only 2 foot with SLR
Source: Horsley Witten Group, Inc.
4 foot compliance without SLR,
but only 2 foot with SLR

29. “Sandy was a whole other story
“Sandy was a whole other story.” Jim Cooper, Superintendent of Milford (CT) Wastewater Division

30. In other words……. Changing Water Regime impacts our - AQUATIC RESOURCES - INFRASTRUCTURE - BUILT ENVIRONMENT

31. So how is Massachusetts addressing its long-term
Water Sustainability?

32. Protect Existing Supplies
Aquifer Land Purchase
Protect Existing Supplies
Allocate Water Wisely
Ensure Recharge
Stormwater, Low Impact Development
Permit Mitigation
Use Water Wisely
MA Water Conservation Standards
Permit Conditions
Smart Growth
State Funding & Technical Assistance
Green Infrastructure
State Funding - EEA, CZM

33. (617) 626-1248 email: vandana.rao@state.ma.us
Thank you!
Vandana Rao
(617)
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