1. And In Which State Regions Do We Need To Grow? Part I
What Program Areas
And In Which State Regions
Do We Need To Grow?
Part I
Commission on Higher Education Access and Attainment
December 10, 2012

2. Part A Introduction 2
At our last session, we explored the growth of Florida’s degree production capacity and the Board of Governor’s goals to the year If we continue on our current course, we saw that the entire higher education system—public and private institutions and the Florida College System—is likely to produce 128,000 bachelor’s degrees a year by 2025, with the public State University System producing 86,000 of the total.
We benchmarked Florida’s current degree production capacity against other nations and large states. We found that Florida was trailing many other states, which hamstrings our economy and narrows the careers and earnings of Floridians. Florida ranks in the bottom quartile of states on indicators such as net per capita GDP and net earnings, and ranks in the bottom third of states on innovation and knowledge in the New Economy Index.
We also explored potential degree production strategies that would meet the demands of the future, better positioning Florida’s economy, Florida’s employers, and Floridians to succeed in the future. Net in-migration into Florida is one way to increase the state’s knowledge capital, but although our state attracts people with college degrees, it’s very likely that many of them are retirement age and won’t contribute to our workforce needs.
Among the key take-aways from the September 26 meeting was the fact that if economic conditions stay at least relatively constant, Florida’s public State University System is on target to meet the degree production goals of the Board of Governors by the year The Florida College System (FCS), the Independent Colleges and Universities of Florida (ICUF), and the Commission on Independent Education (CIE) will also likely continue their same rate of degree production through The bigger question, however, is whether we are satisfied that this level of educational attainment will produce the kind of knowledge and innovation-based economy Florida needs. The education of Florida’s workforce lags the nation, and the state is in jeopardy of being left behind as the knowledge economy accelerates elsewhere. The presentation at the 9/26 meeting ended with a major question which the Commission will continue to address: Is Florida on track to produce the kind of future it wants?

3. Key Questions 3 Shorter-term
What industries and occupations are projected to be in greatest demand in Florida between now and 2020?
State-wide
By region
Operationalizing an example of Gap Analysis: What is the gap between projected demand and potential supply for I.T.?
For what regions
If we accept BOG degree projections to 2020, what is the potential demand for graduates in top occupations?
Longer-term
Does the Commission envision a more ambitious future for Florida – with demand for higher levels of education for future workers? If so, what is the benchmark (an overall growth factor)? The Big 4 states? High Performing States? Other?
At the Commission’s first meeting, members examined the number of bachelor’s degrees Florida produces, in an attempt to determine whether the state was on target. In today’s session, we’ll turn our attention to the second of the Commission’s three guiding questions:
For what regions and in which fields does Florida need to produce bachelor’s degrees or higher?
The Commission decided to table its decision on the first question—whether Florida was producing enough degrees—because members felt that they needed to address the second question concerning regional demand and occupational and industry projections in order to truly answer the first question.
Key questions guiding today’s discussion are:
What occupations and industries project the greatest demand in Florida to the year 2020—both by state and by regional analysis?
Choosing one occupation (I.T.) as an example, how do we determine whether there is a “gap” between supply and demand?
Given the Board of Governor’s degree projection goals to 2025, what is the demand for graduates in high gap areas?
After exploring these three questions, the Commission will circle back to the question asked at the September meeting: Does the Commission believe that higher education is on course to meet the demand for educated workers over the next decade or so? If not, what does the alternate look like? Do we stay the course – or should we aim higher?

4. Definition of Terms 4
Demand: Degree-holders employers are projected to need
Supply: Degree-holders the higher education system can potentially generate
Total Employment: All non-agricultural jobs in Florida
Total Openings: The combined job openings from both growth and replacement
Annual Openings: The projected job openings each year
Growth Job: Additional jobs above and beyond the replacement jobs total
Replacement Job: Job vacancy created by retirees and leavers
Industry Sectors: Employer industry categories of FL DEO & U.S. Dept. of Labor
SOC Codes: Standard Occupational Classification codes (FL DEO & U.S. DOL)
IPEDS: Federal Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (U.S. Dept. of Education)
CIP Codes: Classification scheme for curricular disciplines and majors (IPEDS degree categories, U.S. DOE)

5. Part B The Current Demand Picture5

6. Florida Employment Florida’s recession job loss was huge.6
Florida’s recession job loss was huge.
Projecting supply, demand and gaps is especially challenging in this economic climate.
Employment levels dropped to what they were almost a decade ago.
Recovery is projected to be slower than past recoveries.
More unemployed Floridians with college degrees will be seeking jobs alongside newly graduated degree-holders in the future.
Florida is projected to gain more than one million new jobs between 2012 and 2020 (1.6% annual growth).
The unemployment rate is forecast to decline to 6.5% by 2020, and projected total employment will be just over 9 million jobs.
Nearly 80 percent of projected jobs to the year 2020 will be recovery jobs—but not necessarily the same jobs—that were lost during the recent economic downturn. The projected total employment in 2020 may be only approximately 194,000 more jobs than Florida had in and about 1,005,000 more than in 2012.
Caveats to this forecast include the fact that some employees will inevitably leave Florida, drop out of employment, retire, or become self-employed.

7. Occupational Employment by Educational Requirement (Projected to 2020)7
3,244,100
2,255,400
2,540,800
1,691,400
3,524,200
3,908,500
1,743,450
435,150
495,500
305,300
448,100
518,900
1,185,200
1,106,950
1,257,000
288,500
317,900
372,300
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
9,000,000
10,000,000
2004
2012
2020 J o b s
Florida Occupational Employment by Educational Requirement
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Education Codes
Master's and above
Bachelor's Degree
Associate's Degree
Postsecondary
Vocational
High School Diploma
Less than High School
Projected
At its last meeting, the Commission agreed to use the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Education Codes, as shown here in the projections on this chart. (The Commission made this decision to use U.S.BLS Education Codes because we can then use them to compare and benchmark Florida’s workforce projections with other states and the nation.) The chart shows cumulative job openings between 2012 and Although the greatest number of job openings will require a high school degree or less, growth is still projected at bachelor’s or higher degree levels.
NOTE: To review the difference in classifying occupations by education levels using codes by the Florida Dept. of Economic Opportunity or the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, please see Supplemental Slide #2.
Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Labor Market Statistics Center, Employment Projections Program.
Prepared: October 2012.
Source: Florida Dept. of Economic Opportunity, Labor Market Statistics, Ctr., Employment Projections Program, Prepared Oct. 2012

8. Florida Projected Job Growth and Replacement (Baccalaureate Level and Higher)8
393,498
338,579
104,322
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
Requiring a Bachelor's
(RNs included)
Requiring a Bachelor’s
(RNs excluded)
Requiring a Master's or Higher
2012 -
2020
Florida Projected Job Openings Requiring a Bachelor's Degree or Higher
Cumulative Growth
(BLS Education Codes)
Column A
Column B
Column C
Job Openings (Growth and Replacement)
This chart shows the projected job openings due to both growth and replacement requiring a bachelor’s degree or higher between 2012 and For jobs requiring bachelor’s degrees, the two blue columns show job opening estimates based on whether registered nurses (RNs) are included in the bachelor’s degree projections (Column A) or excluded (Column B). Currently, about half of Florida’s nurses hold a bachelor’s degree, with the other half holding an associate’s degree as their highest degree. Both Florida and the Bureau of Labor Statistics consider the associate degree as the minimum educational level requirement for nurses to enter the profession.
Column C shows estimated job openings at the master’s degree level or higher.
Source: Florida Dept. of Economic Opportunity, Labor Market Statistics Ctr. Employment Projections Program. Prepared Oct. 2012

9. Current Jobs Requiring a Bachelor’s Degree
by Industry in Florida (2012) 9
A look at broad industry classifications can provide a starting point for determining demand for Florida employees who hold a bachelor’s degree. Of the jobs requiring a bachelor’s degree in Florida, a large portion (25%) are in education services. Professional and business services comprise another 20%.
Note that DEO’s “Projected Demand for Labor by Occupation, ,” incorporates data from both the occupational and industry perspectives.  Regarding the industry perspective, the production of the projections is based on a thorough statistical analysis of detailed industry data.  This includes a team review of selected statistical models, a review of most current industry data from administrative records, and an outside review by experts on the overall Florida economy.  Data in periodicals and publications are also used to add to the knowledge base of the analysts selecting statistical models. 
A corresponding Master’s degree chart is in the Supplemental Packet.
Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Labor Market Statistics Center, Employment Projections Program, Forecast to 2020, released September 2012.

10. Total Jobs: Workforce Demand within Industries by Educational Level (if current trends continue)10
INDUSTRY
TOTAL
JOBS
Projected for 2020
Associate Degree
Bachelor's & Higher # %
TOTAL, All Industries
9,092,891
518,913 6%
1,629,281
18%
Education and Health Services
1,928,405
284,055
15%
634,886
33%
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
1,651,109
16,068 1%
100,373
Professional and Business Services
1,287,322
92,888 7%
325,046
25%
Leisure and Hospitality
1,105,742
7,468
27,776 3%
Self Employed
706,032
30,037 4%
138,987
20%
Government
569,907
27,767 5%
135,182
24%
Financial Activities
526,575
6,521
97,883
19%
Construction
449,302
23,871
23,988
Other Services (Except Government)
345,770
15,334
57,341
17%
Manufacturing
311,954
10,370
46,095
Information
130,016
4,137
39,451
30%
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting
77,513
307 0%
2,122
Mining
3,244 90
151
Actual numbers of total jobs—not just percentages--are necessary to consider in projecting workforce demand. For example, Florida’s projected demand for education and health services employees exceeds all other sectors by a comfortable number. Of the almost 2 million workers estimated to be employed in this sector by the year 2020, a little more than half will require less than an associate’s degree. Nevertheless, 15%, or 289,000 employees, will need an associate’s degree. And 33%, or 635,000, will need a bachelor’s degree. But because this projection is for total jobs, not just openings, the 635,000 workers who will need a Bachelor’s does not correspond to the need to produce that many bachelor’s degrees.  Only a portion of this number will be associated with job openings, and that portion will show the demand for degree production. 
Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Labor Market Statistics Center, Employment Projections Program, Forecast to 2020, released September 2012.
(*Projections rounded to the nearest 100.)

11. Annual Average Occupational Demand Growth by Specific Occupation (Baccalaureate Level)11
To project occupational demand, we need to consider two components: 1) new job openings that are expected because of growth in the occupation and 2) job openings that occur because of retirements and other separations from work. This chart shows, for example, that, for auditors and accountants, more job openings are expected to occur because of an aging workforce and/or other reasons for job separation than because of any anticipated growth in the occupation itself.
Note: Numbers in the chart for both occupations and salary are rounded to the nearest 10.
Source: Dept. of Economic Opportunity, Labor Market Statistics Ctr., Employment Projections Program, Forecast to 2020, released Sept NOTE: Data rounded by FL Board of Governors.

12. Regional Considerations in Workforce Demand
Part C
Regional Considerations in Workforce Demand 12

13. Florida’s Workforce Regions13
Florida’s workforce system consists of Workforce Florida (the policy board), the Florida Department of Economic Opportunity (the state agency responsible for administrative and fiscal affairs, and for statistics), and the 24 Regional Workforce Boards (primarily responsible for service delivery).
The 24 Regional Workforce Boards are responsible for providing services directly to Florida’s businesses and job seekers through more than 90 service centers, including job placement and recruitment assistance as well as funding for skills training. Their efforts are often geared toward specific industries or populations identified as targets in their areas because of demand and wage potential. Each region is able to determine what workforce services are most needed to support employment, training and local economies.
Occupational projections and other labor market statistics are prepared by the Florida Department of Economic Opportunity for each of the Regional Workforce Boards regions, and can also be provided for multiple boards in a specific geographic region.
Source: Workforce Florida Inc.
The Researcher Group looked at multiple options for regional analysis, such as Enterprise Florida/Workforce Florida regions, MSAs, and various roll-ups of Workforce Regions.  However, in the end, the use of the 24 individual Workforce Regions best enabled the use of existing demand occupational data and provided the most flexibility for regional supply analysis going forward.

14. Greatest Number of Annual Openings by Workforce Region14
Occupational Titles (BLS Baccalaureate Level)
Statewide
Jacksonville
Miami
Orlando
Accountants and Auditors
3,300
230
420
540
Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education
3,060
220
370
470
Secondary School Teachers, Exc. Special and Voc. Ed.
1,670
110
200
250
Management Analysts
1,650
130
190
270
Middle School Teachers, Exc. Special & Voc. Education
1,290
100
210
Sales Representatives, Wholesale & Mfg, Tech. & Sci. Products
1,250 90
Public Relations Specialists
820 70
120
160
Recreation Workers
770 .
Graphic Designers
750
Compliance Officers, Exc. Safety, Agri, Constr & Transp.
740
170
Civil Engineers
Securities and Financial Services Sales Agents
Chief Executives
140
Sales Managers
Grand Total
15,300
1,180
2,050
2,470
Regional variability in the job market is also a piece of the workforce demand puzzle. We can’t assume that lack of statewide demand will mean lack of demand in specific regions. We also can’t assume that larger metropolitan areas will necessarily have a larger workforce demand in a specific occupation.
SOURCE: Board of Governors staff analysis of Dept. of Economic Opportunity Occupational Projections.
NOTE: DEO 2020 projections have been rounded to the nearest tens digit.

15. Part D Gap Analysis 15

16. CIP: Classification of Instructional Program16
CIP codes provide more detailed information on degree production at the two-digit, four-digit, and six-digit levels, respectively.
CIP Code 11: Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services
Computer Programming
Computer Programming/Programmer General
Computer Programming, Vendor/Product Certification
Computer Software and Media Applications
Computer Graphics
Modeling, Virtual Environments and Simulation
To classify curriculum, we use CIP codes, which is a reporting system for curriculum called “Classification of Instructional Programs” that the U.S. Dept. of Education has developed. CIPs can be “rolled up” from the six-digit level, or “exploded” from the two-digit level. There are pros and cons to both portrayals. For cross-walking to SOCs, six-digit CIPs are necessary. But for policy-level strategic planning, the four-digit CIP level may be most effective. The two-digit CIP is generally considered to be too broad to be the most effective strategic planning tool.

17. Elements of a Demand-Supply Gap Analysis17
Surveyed by FDEO to determine projected hiring using USDOL Standard Occupational Classification codes
SOC codes have been cross-walked to related educational CIP codes by the National Crosswalk Center
Classification of Instructional Programs (CIP) codes assigned to educational programs using a taxonomy established by the U.S. Department of Education
Colleges and universities offer degrees identified by CIP codes which can be reasonably aligned with SOC codes
Educational Institutions
(SUS, FCS, ICUF, CIE)
US Dept. of Education (NCES/IPEDS)
USDOL & National Crosswalk Center
Employers
In Florida
DEMAND
SUPPLY
This chart identifies the key elements and processes used in showing the relationship between occupations and education programs.
Column 1: Employers in Florida indicate their projected hiring needs to the Florida Department of Economic Opportunity within various sectors (public, private, for-profit, not-for-profit) through surveys. These hiring needs are translated into Standard Occupational Codes (SOC) established by the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL) to standardize data reporting across the states.
Column 2: SOC codes at the six-digit level have been aligned to related educational CIP codes at the six-digit level by the National Crosswalk Center. This crosswalk is used by USDOL and the Florida Department of Economic Opportunity (DEO) to identify education programs reasonably related to occupations in the state.
Column 3: All educational institutions receiving Title IV Financial Aid are required to report data to the Department of Education using Classification of Instructional Programs (CIP) codes established by the National Center for Educational Statistics (NCES) and reported into the Integrated Postsecondary Educational Data System (IPEDS).
Column 4: The educational supply by degree program CIP code can be compared against projected occupational demand by SOC code using the SOC/CIP Crosswalk. It is not a clean one-to-one relationship in most cases, but when calculated at the six-digit level and then rolled up to the three-digit SOC level, it provides the underpinning for a defensible gap analysis.

18. Step 1 of Supply-Demand ‘Gap’ Analysis for Computer Occupations, SOC 15-11 (as an example)18
1st step: Identify the 6-Digit SOC/CIP relationships for Computer Occupations
SOC Titles & Codes
Computer and Information Research Scientists ( )
Computer Systems Analysts ( )
Computer Programmers ( )
Software Developers, Applications ( )
Software Developers, Systems Software ( )
Database Administrators ( )
Network and Computer Systems Architects and Administrators ( )
Computer Support Specialists ( )
Information Security Analysts and Web Developers ( , )
Computer Occupations, All Other ( )
Associated Degree CIP Codes
It’s not possible to calculate occupational supply/demand with 100% accuracy.  Using all known supply/demand data, however, does allow a best approximation of under- or over-supply. 
Supply/demand models rely on nationally developed crosswalk files that align the educational requirements of occupations (SOCs) to training provided by educational programs (CIPs) calculated at the six-digit code level.
Some SOC to CIP crosswalks have a one-to-one relationship, some have a one-to-few relationships, while others have one-to many relationships. This becomes more complex when worked backwards again from CIP to SOC, because each of the CIP codes may track backwards to multiple, and different, SOC codes.
Therefore, each occupation’s supply is comprised of graduates with education/training that  prepares them to enter an occupation, or potentially several, occupations (e.g., I.T. Occupations, Business, Science, Teacher, and  Language programs, etc). This can lead to the conclusion that an occupation is over-supplied if consideration is not given to the fact that graduates have several occupational options.
However, if all available demand and supply is known and there is still more demand than ALL supply,  one can accurately state that the occupation is under-supplied. 
Calculating Demand/Supply using the SOC/CIP crosswalk is not precise like a thermometer, it can be used somewhat akin to a barometer-- providing a directional trending of each occupation’s supply and demand status.
Rolling up SOC/CIP calculations to the three-digit SOC level when feasible eliminates much of the data noise created by the one-to-many correlation that can occur at the six-digit level, thereby eliminating much of the duplicated graduate headcount that can occur as a result of the one-to-many correlation. This allows for a more reasonable approach for calculating supply for the occupational demand and better facilitates policy-making.
CIP codes in RED are associated with more than one SOC code.

19. Step 2 of Supply-Demand ‘Gap’ Analysis for Computer Occupations (as an example)19
2nd Step: Total Projected Demand and Determine Unduplicated Supply
6-DIGIT
SOC CODE
6-DIGIT SOC TITLE
PROJECTED
DEMAND
DUPLICATED SUPPLY*
Computer and Information Research Scientists 18
1,160
Computer Systems Analysts
865
1,157
Computer Programmers
556
468
Software Developers, Applications
651
1,112
Software Developers, Systems Software
537
1,118
Database Administrators
222
652
Network and Computer Systems Architects and Administrators
629
Information Security Analysts and Web Developers ( )
800
457
Computer Occupations, All Other ( )
150
660
 3-DIGIT
3-DIGIT SOC TITLE
TOTAL DEMAND
UNDUPLICATED SUPPLY
15-11
COMPUTER OCCUPATIONS (SOC )
4,428
2,330*
This slide shows that individual occupations can appear to be over-supplied at the six-digit level SOC level, but under-supplied at the three-digit level.
Note that six of the nine occupations appear to have many more graduates than job openings. This occurs because the SOC for the occupation maps to multiple CIP codes, which in turn map to multiple SOC codes as illustrated in the previous slide.
This creates substantial duplication of program graduate counts within the analysis at the six-digit level, but these duplications are eliminated if the analysis is rolled up to the three-digit SOC level and each associated CIP code is only counted once.
However, it may still be necessary to perform the Gap Analysis at the more targeted, six-digit CIP level for certain occupations that have a more direct one-to-one SOC/CIP relationship, such as Information Security Analysts and Web Developers, CIP on this table.
The Department of Economic Opportunity has also developed a Supply/Demand Portal (Help Wanted Online – HWOL -- data) that can be used as a supplemental methodology for estimating short-term occupational demand.  A slide describing this portal is included in the supplemental materials.  
*Note: Due to individual CIP codes being associated with more than one SOC code, considerable duplication of degree graduate counts occur at the six-digit SOC/CIP level. Rolling the analysis up to the three-digit SOC level provides a more accurate Gap Analysis of Demand/Supply.

20. Which Emerging Businesses Should Be a First Priority for a Gap Analysis?20
Aviation & Aerospace
Clean Technology
Solar
Biofuels
Storage
Ocean
Smart Grid
Advanced Materials & Products
Green Buildings
Water
Air & Environment
Financial/Professional Services
Homeland Security/Defense
Information Technology
Modeling, Simulation, and Training
Photonics/Optics
Digital Media
Software & Computer System Design
Computer & Microelectronics
Telecommunications
Life Sciences
Biotech
Medical Devices
Pharmaceuticals
Health Care
A final consideration in our discussion about the method to follow in conducting a gap analysis of workforce demand and educational supply is that of emerging occupations. This is one of the more difficult variables involved in projecting workforce demand. Little data often exists to project workforce demand for emerging occupations, and many start out small but grow rapidly.
Enterprise Florida and the Florida Department of Economic Opportunity have an ambitious economic development strategy which Targets Business Clusters and Strategic Areas of Emphasis that can grow rapidly and will boost Florida beyond its projected growth. Enterprise Florida & FDEO are recruiting these targeted businesses to locate in Florida and supporting these targeted businesses already located in Florida.
The growth of each of these targets by Enterprise Florida and FDEO can not be projected, but the workforce for these rapidly growing businesses must be supplied rapidly. Beyond supplying projected demand of targeted industry sectors and occupational groups, Florida Higher Education must support these efforts by planning, proposing and producing the highly-educated workforce that these targeted business clusters will demand as they grow in the future.
These emerging clusters are the job growth above and beyond projected recovery, growth, and replacement that will boost Florida’s competitiveness and profile as a highly-educated location for new and innovative businesses.
The use of the DEO occupational demand projection methodology enables the estimation of additional demand (if desired) for degree-holders based on industry classification (e.g., for specific economic development rationales or initiatives).  DEO can “artificially” increase demand in a given industry (e.g., life sciences) in the projection model and then convert the increased demand into occupational demand by occupational code in a spreadsheet.
Sources:
Enterprise Florida (2011) Annual Incentives Report. Retrieved from
Enterprise Florida (2012). Florida Industry Clusters. Retrieved from

21. Part E The Longer-Term Future for Florida?21
When we started this presentation, we discussed the need to consider both short-term and longer-term demand for higher education in Florida. We are now circling back to information that was presented in the September 26, 2012 meeting, regarding the longer-term strategic direction that must be a part of the Commission’s discussion.

22. Re-cap: Florida’s National Rankings22
% of yr. olds enrolled in college: 31st
High school to college continuation rate: 38th
% of 2010 population with a bachelor’s or higher: 37th
Bachelor’s degrees per 18-24yr population: 34th
Per capita gross domestic product: 40th
Per capita net earnings: 45th
Knowledge jobs in 2010 New Economy Index: 33rd
As a reminder of where Florida ranks on national indicators of economic and social well-being, this information in this slide was provided in the Commission’s September 26, 2012 meeting materials. (All sources are contained in those materials.)
Trying to raise the number of degrees produced to match those in the nation or the top-achieving states may be misguided if those graduates will not be able to find a job needing their skills and will leave Florida to find a job in places where the demand for jobs requiring a degree is higher.  A recent Georgetown report calls this effect the “chicken-or-the-egg” story, stating, “Over the long term, slow and consistent increases in state postsecondary attainment can attract high-value-added industries.  But in the short term, the available jobs determine the demand for postsecondary talent.  As a result, increasing postsecondary attainment without increasing the share of jobs that require postsecondary talent will simply further the brain drain into states where college-level jobs are available. “

23. Case Examples (Baccalaureate Level)23
SOC Code
SOC Title
2012 Base Employment
Additional Demand Needed: Benchmarking Florida’s Workforce to Other Indicators
Top 5 Occupational Density)
Top 10 Occupational Density
National Average Occupational Density
Big 4 Occupational Density
High Performing Occupational Density
113021
Computer and Information Systems Managers
8,200
2,600
1,950
1,300
1,100
2,200
132011
Accountants and Auditors
81,400 60
-300
-1,700
-700
-500
Financial Managers
18,200
3,300
2,500
1,400
1,600
2,100
Source: Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Labor Market Statistics Center. Projected Demand for Labor by Occupation ( ). Occupations Requiring Bachelor’s Degree, sorted by Annual Total Openings (Growth and Replacement) BLS Education Codes.
The question of whether Florida should stay the course for the Board of Governors’ degree goals to the year 2025 is one that was considered at the Commission’s first meeting and recommended for further consideration once information about workforce demand and supply was added to the conversation. Today’s meeting (Dec. 10th) is the first of two sessions during which the Commission will consider the issue of workforce supply and demand.
Decisions made by Commission members at today’s meeting regarding the method for gap analysis will enable staff from the participating entities to perform more detailed and thorough analysis for the Commission’s next meeting in March.
One of the major decision points is whether the Commission members are interested in pursuing alternate scenarios for workforce demand—and concomitant degree production goals—based upon other possible benchmarks, such as parity with High Performing states or the Top 5 states regarding occupational density.
This slide T’s up the conversation about alternate models regarding workforce demand for those holding a bachelor’s degree or higher. If Florida were to be competitive with other states that are clustered into high performing or high density groups, and to the nation, how many additional employees would the state need, for example, in three sample occupational groups (computer and I.T. managers, accountants and auditors, and financial managers)? The chart illustrates that additional demand by various comparison groups that Commission members might consider for Florida to its national and global competitiveness.
As the Commission discussed at its September 26 meeting, if Florida aspires to a future in which the state is not in the bottom third or quartile of states on measures such as per capita GDP or in knowledge and innovation in the New Economy Index, it can benchmark the educational attainment levels it needs to states that are already high-performing. We could choose to benchmark bachelor’s degree production to states that are in the Big 10 in terms of population, or on per capita GDP, or on other measures such as “occupational density.” Occupational density, for example, would be a way in which Florida could identify target occupations that it would like to grow and then to benchmark itself against the top 5 or 10 states in which those occupations are filled. This slide shows what additional demand for bachelor’s level employees Florida would need if it were to aspire to compete with the top 5 or top 10 states in which computer and information systems managers, and other desirable occupations, are in evidence.

24. Workforce Demand Is Florida’s Projected Workforce Demand Competitive with Other States?24
JOB PROJECTIONS BY STATE & BY EDUCATION LEVEL Projected Total Job Openings (New & Replacement) as a Percentage of Total Jobs in 2008
Educational Levels
United States
BIG10
California
Florida
Georgia
Illinois
Michigan
New York
North Carolina
Ohio
Texas
Less than high school
38%
39%
40%
35%
45%
34%
46%
High school diploma or equivalent
29%
28%
25%
33%
26%
23%
Some college, no degree
41%
49%
30%
36%
Postsecondary non-degree award
32%
Associate's degree
27%
31%
Bachelor's degree
Master's degree
48%
51%
Doctoral or professional degree
37%
42%
ALL LEVELS
More than 105% of BIG 10
+/-5% of BIG 10
Less than 95% of BIG 10
This chart compares the educational attainment levels of Florida’s projected workforce needs to each of the other “Big 10” states, to the “Big 10” as a whole, and to the U.S. as a whole. The chart is best read across, by row. For example, reading across the row entitled “Bachelor’s Degree,” we find that Florida’s projected job openings at this level (32%) is lower than the U.S. as a whole (38%), than the “Big 10” states as a whole (35%) and than all of the individual “Big 10” states except New York, with Michigan and Ohio projecting the same rates (32%).
This chart is based upon 2008 to 2018 projections to illustrate the comparative concept. Data and projections for 2010 to 2020 are not yet available.
SOURCE: Projections Central - State Occupational Projections

25. Questions and Next Steps25
Questions and Next Steps
Is the gap analysis method appropriate?
Focus first on under-supply relative to projected demand
Use six-digit SOCs and CIPs, but aggregate at the three-digit SOC levels
Use the 24 workforce regions to customize demand
Should we accept the status quo for baccalaureate degree production or consider a more ambitious, competitive future for Florida?
In wrapping up this presentation, we circle back to the two questions posed at the beginning that need to be answered in order for staff to move forward with the work of the Access and Attainment Commission:
Is the method for gap analysis, as presented here, acceptable to Commission members?
Does the Commission wish to use Florida’s “status quo” regarding degree production as the basis for the more detailed gap analysis, which will be held at the Commission’s next meeting in March? Or does the Commission wish to consider one or more alternate scenarios upon which to base future workforce projections for Florida?