1. Energy policy and long term energy demand in Croatian households sector Tomislav Pukšec 1 dipl.ing. Prof.dr.sc. Brian Vad Mathiesen 2 Prof.dr.sc. Neven Duić 1 1 University of Zagreb, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering and Naval Architecture 2 Aalborg University 20th HED Forum Zagreb, 18th of November 2011

2.  Security of energy supply Import dependence from 50% to 70% by 2030  Employment and regional development policies Deindustrialization and trade liberalization “Boosting growth and jobs by meeting our climate change commitments”  Mitigation of global warming  Environmental protection  Sustainable development EU energy context

3. 20-20-20 till 2020  20% RES  20% CO2 emission reduction  20% less energy consumed Energy - climate package 2008

4.  Decarbonising power  Renewables  Carbon capture and storage (CCS)  Nuclear?  Four pillars of Post carbon society  Renewable Energy  Buildings as Positive Power Plants  Energy Storage  Smart grids and Plug-in Vehicles Towards 2050

5.  Main goal  to develop the methodology and mathematic model of future energy demand of a households sector (HED Model - “Households Energy Demand” Model)  Implementation of energy regulation  Build upon already existing energy planning tools developed at the Faculty of Mechanical Engineering and Naval Architecture  Methodology applicable to other countries  HED Model  tested on Croatia as a case study Motivation

6. Methodology  Bottom up approach  Data intensive  Modeling the base year (2008)  Describing all the mechanisms  Summarizing all sub-categories which leads to final results  Modeling long term energy demand of households sector  Making a referent scenario  Possibilities of constant modifications and add-ons  Comparing the results with the National energy strategy

7. Methodology  Developing methodology to project official national energy strategy  Period between 2030. – 2050.  Demography  GDP/capita  Energy intensity

8. Methodology  Wedges approach  How does a certain measure influence future energy demand

9. Methodology – transport wedges

10. Methodology – industry wedges Final energy demand –Croatian industry sector (strategy) Final energy demand –Croatian industry sector (modeled referent scenario)

11.  Modeling available surfaces  Geographic distribution  Different usage types  Renovation/demolition/building tempo Heat demand  Heat losses Transmission and ventilation  Heat gains Solar and internal Methodology – households sector

12. Cooling degree days  Electrical appliances Specific energy consumption and energy efficiency  Cooking & hot water  Using available norms  Survey/literature data  specific consumption and energy efficiency  Fuel and technology mixes  Cooling demand Methodology – households sector

13. UTJECAJ TEHNOLOGIJE I FINANCIJSKIH MEHANIZAMA NA POTROŠNJU ENERGIJE 13. Zagreb, 13.8.2015.

14. Results  Referent scenario  3 refurbishment scenarios  3 different fuel mix options  Comparison with the national energy strategy

15. Results – impact of zero energy buildings on distribution of final heat demand

16. Results – different yearly refurbishment rates

17. Results – referent scenario

18. Results – comparison with the National energy strategy (2030-2050 is modeled based on previously presented methodology)

19. Results – biomass option

21. Results – district heating option

23. Results – heat pumps option

25. UTJECAJ TEHNOLOGIJE I FINANCIJSKIH MEHANIZAMA NA POTROŠNJU ENERGIJE Zagreb, 13.8.2015. Results

26. Conclusion  Methodology is applicable to other energy systems and its households sector  Great possibilities for energy savings  Key element is enforcing current building codes for all buildings that are being built or refurbished  Results show that heat pumps ill have significant role in future households allowing significant savings regarding final energy demand.  One of the conclusions drawn from the presented results is the fact that Croatian national energy demand scenarios regarding households sector needs to be considered with a certain reserve since bottom up modelling shows a certain room for energy savings improvements.

27. Thank you for your attention! E-mail: neven.duic@fsb.hr Department of Energy, Power Engineering and Environment