1. National Weather Service Protecting Lives and Property Red River of the North 2009 Record Flood Synopsis Scott Dummer North Central River Forecast Center

2. National Weather Service Protecting Lives and Property 2009 Flood Background Conditions:  Colder than normal fall and winter  Wetter than normal late summer into fall freeze up  Greater than normal snow pack (but less than 97)  Quick initial melt: warm rain on snow event  Forecasted well by WFO for short term

3. National Weather Service Protecting Lives and Property GoToMeeting Jan. 8, 2009 Addressed Significant Threat for Major Flooding  CR, NOHRSC, NCRFC, WFO FGF, USACE, MN DNR, USGS, FEMA, NDSWC, Manitoba Water Resources, Wilkin County EM, Red Lake River Watershed District  Reviewed Red River Valley Current Conditions  Discussed snow depths, frozen ground, soil moisture  Issued request for SWE Measurements  As a result of Meeting, NCRFC issued early suite of probabilistic forecasts for Red River Valley

4. National Weather Service Protecting Lives and Property Fargo January 14 - April 30 Top 5 Climate Yrs 1979 1969 1965 1997 1975 Early Outlook prepared for GoTo Meeting presented Jan. 8, 2009; updated to AHPS web Jan. 9, 2009 1897 Record Flood 40.1 ft. 2009 Crest 40.8 ft Large Shift – Key Indicator of Risk

5. National Weather Service Protecting Lives and Property Modeling Difficulties  Lack of accurate and reliable gage data  Temperature  Precipitation (radar and gage)  SWE – Especially Manual Surveys  Automated river gages – Freeze-ups  Ice affected stages – Ice Jams & induced Shifts  Temporary storage of runoff until conduits thaw (culverts, ditches, drainage tiles) - Waffle  Snow mods used to retain volume artificially

6. National Weather Service Protecting Lives and Property Modeling Difficulties  Inter-basin flows – “Break-outs”  Snow melt timing and rates  Frozen soil  Significant rating shifts and loops common  Hydraulic effects – “Valley” formed by Glacial Lake Bed (slope six inches per mile)

7. National Weather Service Protecting Lives and Property Unique Challenges  Early spring rains  Ice affected stages during 1 st crest  Complex Melt Scenario  Significant snow storm in middle of event  Overland flow became sheet ice

8. National Weather Service Protecting Lives and Property Unique Challenges  Special issuance of probabilistic forecasts for “Second Crest”  Unexpected quick warm up in far north basins (Pembina)  National Media Circus  “Uncharted territory” above top of rating

9. National Weather Service Protecting Lives and Property Service Successes  High participation rate on daily conf. calls  Data collecting coordination (SWE, etc) with states and local partners  Flow measurement Coordination (USGS, DNR)  Close USACE and USGS coordination through in-office liaisons

10. National Weather Service Protecting Lives and Property Service Successes  Media brief workload distributed between four offices – MPX SSH assisted SCH  “Katrina-like” planning done for service backup of WFO FGF at MPX  Early “heads-up” given to communities and local government officials in January

11. National Weather Service Protecting Lives and Property Service Successes  Daily coordination with NOHRSC allowed quick data gaps closure via data acquisition and field reconnaissance.  Public-private partnership - Private sector coordination with those working for local communities in flood fight  Webinar briefings

12. National Weather Service Protecting Lives and Property Service Short-falls  Partners received Forecast information at times arrived before NWS EOC Staff  Mayor openly disagreeing w/ NWS crest forecasts hurt NWS credibility (psychology/local politics)  Continued dissatisfaction with and misuse of probabilistic outlooks.  Time Crunch - Difficulty producing timely information for the morning EOC briefings

13. National Weather Service Protecting Lives and Property Unique & Innovative Techniques  Aggressive outreach started early January (e.g. GoTo meetings, on-site meetings)  Predator B Live Video Feed - NOAA UAS Program  Hi-Res Satellite Imagery  “Departure From Hydro-climatologic Normal” outlooks  NWSChat Interagency chat room

14. Major Flooding Departure From Hydro-Climatologic Normal (CS – HS = “Departure”)

15. [13:30:45] Greg Kruse: what‘s your recent measurement at Alvarado? [13:47:42] Also Roseau if you've got it [14:55:59] usgs-steve.m.robinson: crew visited the grafton gage, dcp needs a -3.76 ft correction @ (04:17:52 PM) usgs-steve.m.robinson: the pressure sensor for the Grand Forks gage is drifting a bit due to the high flows. Apply a +.4 correction to the stage reading from the pressure transducer [17:09:23] We have a technician shaking loose ice from frozen stilling well floats today at Hawley, Plummer, and Thief River Falls. Stage readings should be called in to NWS as each gage visited. [17:11:17] Thank you James Fallon [17:36:16] 05101000 Tongue River At Akra,Today at 1025, Q=192, GH=10.41, Shift=+.56 ft, Clear [17:42:35] Thanks Lorraine NWSChat Coordination Example ncrfcagencies chat room

16. National Weather Service Protecting Lives and Property Unique & Innovative Techniques  Extended 6 day QPF for 1st crest forecasts worked well – Extended lead time to a week+  Extended temperatures  10 day forecast from Grand Forks WFO  14 day NAEFS mean/median temperature forecast  Rating extensions developed prior to flooding

17. National Weather Service Protecting Lives and Property Successes  Unprecedented interagency coordination  Federal, State, Municipal, Private Consultants  Extended January probabilities through April 30  Advanced lead time > 30 days beyond normal 90 day outlook  Recognized extreme & unique situation where extended 6 Day QPF and Fcst Temps paid off  Improved accuracy  extended lead time to > week

18. National Weather Service Protecting Lives and Property Successes  Coordination with NOHRSC pilots  Multiple gamma surveys conducted upon request  Daily coordination with Customs & Border Patrol  Predator Live video feed extremely valuable  Excellent visible imagery provided detailed info at key points

19. National Weather Service Protecting Lives and Property What did not work well  Updated probabilities vs. updated deterministic – 2nd crest scenario identified immediate need for HEFS capability  User experience with major floods doesn’t match probability  Recent major floods have crested near 10% exceedence  User comments “we’re going to use 10% from now on” for crest prediction  Perceived lack of reliability in probabilistic outlooks

20. National Weather Service Protecting Lives and Property What did not work well  Rating extensions somewhat unreliable and increased uncertainty  Extensions established well in advance of flood did not perform well  Lack of adequate preparation for interagency liaisons  Need to have logistics coordinated in advance  Lack of observed frost depth reports  SWE estimates

21. National Weather Service Protecting Lives and Property What did not work well  Re-freezing of overland flow  Major factor in Fargo second crest  Common problem e.g. 1997 flood  Sac-HT shows possible improvement  DSS: “Scheduling of talking points”  Coordination with CR EOC staff and HSD restricted open interagency communication in morning operations

22. National Weather Service Protecting Lives and Property END

23. National Weather Service Protecting Lives and Property Fargo April 1 ESP 1997 39.5 ft 2009 40.8 ft Greater than 60% chance of exceeding 40.8 ft. on second crest Observed crest 34.0 ft April 16

24. National Weather Service Protecting Lives and Property 2009 Flood Ambient Conditions: Snow Depth Departure from Normal - March 12

25. National Weather Service Protecting Lives and Property