1. 1SlideBusiness Modelling Team, Consultancy UK OR in Shell Lauretta Ciuffardi Strategy & Business Modelling Consultancy UK

2. 2SlideBusiness Modelling Team, Consultancy UK An Overview of OR Activities in Shell MC-UK has one of the longest established OR teams with consultants working throughout the company. There are a number of small pockets of OR activity, typically focussed on a specific business. The MC-UK team works with all Shell businesses. OR is used throughout the Shell Group, having started off in refinery operations it is now used extensively elsewhere. What we do… We link customers with off-the-shelf or bespoke IT tools through our consultancy and modelling skills. We develop, run and maintain IT tools and models that are used to aid and support (strategic) business decision making

3. 3SlideBusiness Modelling Team, Consultancy UK Strategy & Business Modelling Offering Simulation Modelling (Software: Witness, Vensim,Crystal Ball) Both discrete and continuous (system dynamics) models Optimisation (Software: Aimms, CPLEX, What’s Best) Use of linear programming, local search methods and bespoke algorithms Bespoke Modelling (Software: VB, 3 rd Party Suppliers) Development of bespoke solution tools that result in a model that is robust to continuing change with the attendant capacity to interpret subtle sensitivities. Process Mapping and Problem Structuring Workshop facilitation that enables problem parameters to be identified and analysed using systems thinking techniques.

4. 4SlideBusiness Modelling Team, Consultancy UK Recent Business Modelling Projects Modelling of LNG terminal operations (Shell operating company in India) –Problem: Assess the operational difficulties of an LNG terminal when dealing with uncertain demand and suggest terminal management policies. –Technique used: Witness simulation Logistics modelling for pipeline construction (Shell operated JV in Russia) –Problem: Support infrastructure upgrade decisions and gain a better understanding of conveyance options. –Technique used: Witness simulation LNG Optimiser (Gas & Power in London) –Problem: Develop a strategic optimisation tool to address global LNG supply/demand balancing –Technique used: AIMMS & CPLEX LNG storage capacity analysis (Gas & Power project team in Mexico) –Problem: Aid the configuration (e.g. capacity, throughput) of a new LNG receiving terminal. –Technique used: Bespoke ADGENT simulation

5. 5SlideBusiness Modelling Team, Consultancy UK Example - Liquefied Natural Gas Logistics Planning Tool (Adgent) High value product (each shipment costs ~$15M), projects have large capital costs (~$2B) Complex interdependent system Generic model was developed to look at: Supply side Liquefied Natural Gas process from well-head, through liquefaction and loading on to Vessels and demand side transporting and delivery to receiving terminals Normal case study simulates1-3 producer terminals and 5-10 receiving terminals Up to 30 vessels with over 200 cargo deliveries per year.

6. 6SlideBusiness Modelling Team, Consultancy UK LNG Logistics Tool (Adgent)

7. 7SlideBusiness Modelling Team, Consultancy UK Example – Liquefied Natural Gas Terminal Models Realistically models the dynamic interactions (e.g. queuing) of elements in the system (such as vessels, LNG Tank, weather patterns etc) through Discrete Event Simulation Used to assess terminal operations Ability to track when and why specific events occur and trace their explicit impact on the system

8. 8SlideBusiness Modelling Team, Consultancy UK LNG Terminal Models Tank Level, Individual Shippers Tank Content, Percentage Borrowed Berthing of Cargoes at Terminal Hourly Supply vs Demand Current Cargo Details

9. 9SlideBusiness Modelling Team, Consultancy UK Where OR is in Shell today IT skills to be integrated with core businesses rather than as part of Shell IT Shared Service OR community needs to adjust as a result, however, modelling work will continue….