1. Systems Dynamics and Equilibrium
Dr. Fred Mugambi Mwirigi
JKUAT

2. What is a System?
A group of interacting, interrelated, and interdependent elements forming a complex whole
A configuration of parts connected and joined together by a web of relationships
The whole is different from, and greater than, the sum of its parts

3. Parts of an Elephant
One way to see this system – reduce it to its parts, when in reality the sum is more than and different from the sum of its parts – refers to a Hindustani tale in which people are blindfolded and asked to describe what they touch. All are right, but they misidentify the whole – an elephant

4. Systems Thinking
A way of understanding reality that emphasizes the relationships among a system’s parts, rather than the parts themselves.
Concerned about interrelationships among parts and their relationship to a functioning whole
Sees underlying patterns and structures

5. Foundations of Systems Theory
Cybernetics: system feedback, information; differences (that make a difference); human – machine analogy; inclusion of the observer and the observed in the system
General systems theory: open systems; system integrity; nested system hierarchy, boundaries, webs, emergence (sum greater than parts)
Recent theories developed starting in the 1920’s to describe the interrelatedness of organisms in ecosystems
Cybernetics –early (Gregory Bateson, Norbert Weier, Warren McMulloch, Margaret Mead, Ross Ashby, Talcott Parsons
General systems theory – Ludwig von Bertalanffy, Kenneth Boulding, Geoffry Vickers, Howard Odum and Fritjof Capra
Late cybernetics – Heiz von Foerster, Stafford Beer, Humbarto Maturana, Niklas Luhmann, Paul Watzilawick

6. Systems Theories
Soft and critical systems: human systems - multiple perspectives, power issues, intractable problems without simple solutions
Systems dynamics: systems have reinforcing and balancing feedback loops, circularity, system archetypes, mental models, unintended consequences
Soft and critical systems – C. West Churchman, Russell Ackoff, Peter Checkland, Werner Ulrich, Michael C. Jackson
System Dynamics – Jay Forrester, Donnella Meadows, Peter Senge

7. More Systems Theories
Complexity theory: complex adaptive systems; semi-independent, interacting agents; self-organization; emergence; nonlinearity; co-evolution; past is irreversible; future is unpredictable
Learning systems: the way that people learn and the systems in which they learn
Complexity theory – Ilya Prigogine, Stuart Kauffman, James Loveback, Ralph Stacey
Learning Systems – Kurt Lewin, Eric Twist, Chris Argyris, Donald Schon, Mary Catherine Bateson

8. System Boundaries Shows what is inside and outside of the system
Geographical (location)
Organization (department, unit or function)
Physical (money, material, information)
Conceptual (goals, mission, purpose, rules)
Intangibles (perceptions, awareness, models)
Natural or man-made
The change of a boundary can affect an entire system. We just experienced the 20th anniversary of a boundary shift that changed history – the fall of the Berlin Wall – it was part of a cascading set of changes from Perestroika to the break-up of the Soviet Union – that was one of the major paradigm shifts in the last century – the elimination of an “iron curtain”.

9. System Relationships (Interconnections)
Connections and exchanges among system parts, parts and the whole, and the whole and its environment
Flows of information
Flows of funding
Client referrals
Collaborative partnerships
Family, community, and social networks
The creation of new relationships is an important tool of diplomacy for system change/paradigm shifts. Nixon’s visit to China to meet with Mao Zedong, Zhoe Enlai and others led to normalization of relations between the U.S. – Chinese.

10. System Perspectives Stakeholders’ worldviews and purposes
System agents who have different perspectives may pursue different purposes within a given situation
Patterns of (mis)alignment of purposes and processes within and across system levels

11. System Change
System differences generate creative tension or energy within a system
Positive or negative, energy provides potential for system change
System change: shifts in patterns (similarities and differences) of system relationships, boundaries, focus, timing, events and behaviors over time and space

12. System Dynamics Random (unorganized) Organized (simple or complicated)
Adaptive (organic, self-organizing)
All three system dynamics can be present in a complex situation

13. Random System Attributes
Random activity – no pattern
Unconnected collection of parts
No cause-effect relationships
Turbulence – no stability or equilibrium
Answers are unknowable
No purpose or direction – people react blindly in a war zone or natural disaster

14. Random System: Hurricane Katrina

15. Organized (Simple) System Attributes
Stable, static pattern
Parts tightly connected machines
Predictable cause-effect relationships
System can be reduced to parts and processes and replicated
Directive leadership, designed change
Answers are knowable, with recipes or prescriptions for action

16. Single Organized System: Ring-Around the Rosie
Simple system – parts are tightly connected, process is simple and straightforward – sing a verse and fall down

17. Simple Organized System: Riding a Bicycle
Another simple system that includes a human with machinery.

18. Organized (Complicated) System Attributes
Dynamic patterns of feedback loops with many interrelated parts within and across subsystem levels
Recursive, non-linear cause-effect relationships; reinforcing and balancing feedback loops maintain equilibrium
Expert analysis can identify causal loops, deep structural causes to actions

19. Adaptive (Complex) System Attributes
Dynamical patterns – parts adapting, co-evolving with each other and environment
Parts are massively entangled and interdependent; nested webs, networks
Parts self-organize, learn, and change
Equilibrium in flux, sensitive to initial conditions; system change emerges through interactions among parts

20. Ecological View of an Elephant
When you can the boundaries of inquiry, you can see an elephant’s adaptation and co-evolution in its context – hot, dry, grassy, with dangerous predators and need for migration across large spaces for food and water

21. Complex Interdependencies

22. Alignment of Context, Program, and Evaluation Dynamics
Context can be random, organized, adaptive, or combination of dynamics
Program design uses random, organized (entity-based), or adaptive (paradigm-based) or a combination of dynamics
Evaluation design (content and process) can be entity-focused (organized), paradigm-focused (adaptive) or a combination of both

23. Three Dynamics of a Social System and its Context

24. Initiative Renewal Design
Match of Evaluation Designs to Dynamics of Social Systems and Their Context
Exploratory Design
Initiative Renewal Design
Organic Design
Predictive Design

25. Complex Adaptive Systems and Adaptive (Self-organizing) Dynamics
Self-organizing/adaptive/organic
Sensitivity to initial conditions
Emergence
Macro pattern

26. Complex Adaptive Systems and Adaptive (Self-organizing) Dynamics (cont
Feedback
Co-evolution
Pattern formation and points of influence

27. Implications for Evaluation and Action
Small differences can create large effects.
The past influences but does not predict the future.
Many points of influence exist.
Boundaries, differences, and relationships are levers of influence toward a purpose.

28. Implications for Evaluation and Action
Simple rules underlie patterns.
Pattern-based feedback and actions are iterative.
Tensions are not resolved.
Patterns are outcomes.

29. Four Stages of Evaluation
Design Evaluation
Shape Practice
Collect Data
Make Meaning from Data

31. End