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Somali Region Early warning department,Disaster concept & history of disaster 22 – 23 March 2012 March 22 -23 Jijiga
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O VERVIEW 1.Introductory note on disasters 2.Overview of Disaster in Ethiopia 3.Hazard trends in the Somali Region 4.Learning from the past 5.Situation scenarios in 2011
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I NTRODUCTION NOTE ON D ISASTERS Cause h uman tragedy – Deaths, displacement & suffering Cause crippling economic losses – costing countries millions Hamper development – shifting of resources & logistical disruptions, halting progress of dev. projects Increase future vulnerability to disasters Increase dependence on humanitarian assistance Increase social unrest & reduce political stability
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O VERVIEW OF D ISASTERS IN E THIOPIA No of events : 1980-2010 No of people killed:313,486 No of people affected:57,382,354 Average affected per year:1,851,044 Ecomomic Damage (US$ X 1,000): 31,700 Ecomomic Damage per year (US$ X 1,000): 1,023
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O VERVIEW OF D ISASTERS IN E THIOPIA Number of Disasters Reported
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O VERVIEW OF D ISASTERS IN E THIOPIA Top 10 Disasters – Affected people DisasterDateAffectedRemark Drought200312,600,000 Drought19837,750,000 Drought19877,000,000 Drought19896,500,000 Drought20086,400,000 Drought20096,200,000 Drought19994,900,000 Drought20052,600,000 Drought1997986,200 Flood2006361,600
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O VERVIEW OF D ISASTERS IN E THIOPIA Killed by Disaster Type
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O VERVIEW OF D ISASTERS IN E THIOPIA No affected & Killed by Disaster Type
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H AZARD T RENDS IN THE S OMALI R EGION Major hazards in SRS: Droughts, diseases, Floods & Conflict Drought is historically the biggest killer, followed by diseases SRS is one of the most prone areas to droughts & conflicts Droughts have grown in frequency over the last 2 decades Recovery period is reduced, increasing vulnerability Numbers of IDP & destitute groups are growing over time Dependence on humanitarian assistance is therefore growing Critical trend that has serious implications for Dev’t & security
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H AZARD T RENDS IN THE S OMALI R EGION SRS Droughts 1999-2011 YearSeverityAffected areas 1999-2000Very severe7 Deyr receiving zones 2002-2003Very severeShinile & FIK 2004ModerateGode 2005SevereGode, Liban & Afder 2007SevereGode, Fik, Korahe, Warder & Dagahbur 2008Very severe& deyr receiving zones 2009Severe/ very severeAll the Region
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L EARNING FROM THE PAST One of the basic objectives of this workshop is to help us predict the likely social and economic consequences of 2011 gu failure One way of predicting the future outcome of such an event is to look the outcome of a similar event in the past Which drought year we need to choose for analysis? The most similar in asset levels, market situation, migration pattern, disease prevalence and levels of stress The most likely drought that comes into picture using such criteria is that of 2007-2008
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L EARNING FROM THE PAST Comparison of the drought situations of 2007/08 & 20110/11
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L EARNING FROM THE PAST Comparison of the drought situations of 2007/08 & 20110/11
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L EARNING FROM THE PAST NDVI in May 2008
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L EARNING FROM THE PAST NDVI in May 2008
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L EARNING FROM THE PAST
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S ITUATION SCENARIOS IN 2011
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S ITUATION SCENARIOS IN 2012 Basic current Facts Rains failed in seven zones led to Emergency water tankering for around 1 million people Emergency food requirement for 1.7 people Likely increase of numbers and needs in the months ahead Livestock in the deyr areas is facing dire feed & water scarcity Animals failing to trek to water points & grazing areas already reported among the nugul species A failure of the coming gu rains will be a decisive blow for both
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S ITUATION SCENARIOS IN 2011 Possible scenarios cases Worst case scenario – complete failure of rains Mid level case scenario – rains perform inadequately but rains do not fail completely – most likely scenario Best case scenario – rains perform normal to good Assumption – no large scale disease outbreaks and dramatic changes in other food security and livelihood parameters beyond the influence of rainfall.
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S ITUATION SCENARIOS IN 2011 Possible scenarios cases Details of each scenario case will need to be developed Its implications for response have to be clearly defined and quantified Resource requirements and availability have to be identified in each case The gap and potential sources and mechanisms of bridging that gap need to be also outlined.
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