1. European Foreign Policy Quo Vadis, Europa? Eugeniusz Smolar The Polish Institute of International Affairs

2. European Foreign Policy Foreign Policy OPPORTUNITIES !!!  To further EU’s interests and objectives  To strengthen EU’s role in the world  To limit the uncertainties in international relations 2

3. European Foreign Policy CHALLENGES CHALLENGES ! A task difficult to implement 27, 28, … sovereign Member States Consequences of the Lisbon Treaty Threats, problems, responsibilities 3

4. European Foreign Policy and on top of it all…  Present economic and financial crisis !!! Спасите наше души … 4

5. European Foreign Policy 27, 28, … and more sovereign Member States Large and small with:  different history and political traditions,  different foreign relations and…  different 27 geopolitics.  Can the European Union have common foreign policy? look at the map… 5

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7. European Foreign Policy THE OBJECTIVE: To make Europe „Whole, free and at peace”… The consequences of enlargement 6 – 7 – 12 – 15 – 27… and growing 7

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11. European Foreign Policy 11

12. European Foreign Policy Candidate Countries: Croatia – 2013 The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia Turkey (?) In the future: other countries of Western Balkans? WHO ELSE ? Who knows??? 12

13. European Foreign Policy The enlargement became the most successful foreign policy tool of growing European Union. Broadening the area of peace, stability and economic affluence Exporting democratic values and benefits of free and open market 13

14. European Foreign Policy Lisbon Treaty – BIG Change ! One amended treaty and not many treaties OFFICIAL DESCRIPTION OF INTENIONS: „It is designed to make the EU more democratic, efficient and transparent, and thereby able to tackle global challenges such as security, climate change and sustainable development”. More efficient, also in Union’s relations with the world 14

15. European Foreign Policy IN FOREIGN AFFAIRS The EU became a legal entity with capability and competences towards all external actors: o Other states or groups of states; o International organisations: United Nations, NATO, OSCE, Council of Europe, IMF, G8 or G20, etc. 15

16. European Foreign Policy Creation of the post of High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Catherine Ashton, High Representative, as Vice- President of the European Commission, ensures the consistency and coordination of the EU external action. The High Representative is assisted by the European External Action Service (EEAS) – new diplomatic service. 16

17. European Foreign Policy THE COUNCIL THE COMMISSION THE PARLIAMENT HIGH REPRESENTATIVE{ THE BUDGET } EUROPEAN EXTERNAL ACTION SERVICE 17

18. European Foreign Policy WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE? ЧТО ДЕЛАТЬ??? Old and new threats known in a diplomatic language as challenges Instability in the Balkans Afghanistan Iran Broader Middle East Neighbourhood in the South – the Arab Spring Neighbourhood in the East 18

19. European Foreign Policy  BIG WORRY: Energy security including our friend Further economic development and competitiveness depends on it. 19

20. European Foreign Policy 20 International organised crime Cyber attacks Piracy Terrorism

21. European Foreign Policy TO DEAL WITH ALL THOSE „CHALLENGES” we have Member State’s Central and local administration Police Security services Armies Money Diplomacies 21

22. European Foreign Policy 22 C OORDINATION CAPACITIES OF THE EU Now we have the European diplomacy WORK IN PROGRESS 1 year-old baby Natural tensions: With the interests and diplomacies of SOVEREIGN Member States o Particularly of big and active Member States – Germany, France, United Kingdom

23. European Foreign Policy The task is to: Integrate agreed policies at the EU level into: European Foreign and Security Policy Common Security and Defence Policy  Trade through norms and regulations, access to the biggest market in the world (some 450 million consumers)  International aid  Visa-free travel and controlled immigration  Measures against and soft and hard security threats 23

24. European Foreign Policy The task: Create EU and services institutions and assure mechanisms of integration with:  Member States’ policies, institutions and services  International bodies and organisations There is a new relationship between domestic issues, economic development, social stability and foreign policy, f.ex. immigration. Look at Greece, Portugal, Spain, Italy or France now. 24

25. European Foreign Policy We have to be prepared as we all learned to expect the unexpected  Wars  Revolutions  Terrorist attacks  Energy flow stoppage and we know that… shit happens ! 25

26. European Foreign Policy Our closest friends, THE AMERICANS should better tell us should better tell us about THEIR plans. about THEIR plans. 26

27. European Foreign Policy It would also help if we would know his plans… 27

28. European Foreign Policy Or their plans… 28

29. European Foreign Policy RUSSIA – EU’s NEIGHBOUR AND PARTNER  Russia’s foreign and defence policy  Difficult relations with the EU, NATO and the U.S. Energy  S elf-evident Trade  WTO membership important EU – Russia  Neighbourhood NATO – Russia  N eighbourhood – Enlargement? US – Russia  Missile Defence, neighbourhood 29

30. European Foreign Policy  Problematic relations with the sovereign states in our common neighbourhood 30

31. European Foreign Policy 31 WHY NATO when we discuss the EU? European membership of the EU and NATO

32. European Foreign Policy 32 Difficulties with formulation of: EFSP – European Foreign and Security Policy & CSDP – Common Security and Defence Policy

33. European Foreign Policy THE REASONS  Generation change – a war in Europe??? Abstract concept after 65 years of peace  Lack of strategic thinking and political will  Diverse interests and traditions of MS  The EU has interests but can hardly have common GEOPOLITICS 33

34. European Foreign Policy A particular challenge: TRANSATLANTIC RELATIONS  NATO is the main mechanism of discussing security and negotiating possible actions;  Majority of EU members wish to strengthen EFSP & CSDP, but without weakening NATO;  Many MS do not wish to see the EU as an actor engaging in hard security.  THE EU HAVE BEEN REGARDED AS A ‘SOFT SECURITY’ ACTOR 34

35. European Foreign Policy What has changed lately?  Clear weakness of the European defence capabilities. o The Europeans together have bigger army than the US but can effectively use less than 1/3. o To many relics of the Cold War strategies: armament and deployments. o Cuts in defence spending.  There are „challenges” and instabilities but no threat of a major war in Europe.  Expeditionary/defence capabilities are now needed. 35

36. European Foreign Policy THREATS ARE NOW COMING FROM DISTAND LANDS There are no illusions that just ”soft power” will persuade those guys to occupy themselves with something peaceful… 36

37. European Foreign Policy MAKE LOVE NOT WAR 37

38. European Foreign Policy There were 22 EU missions abroad since the 90th :  Military: Bosnia, Chad, off the Somali coast, completed – in Macedonia and two in the Democratic Republic of Congo.  Paramilitary: to reform the security sector in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Guinea-Bissau, completed in the Sudanese region of Darfur. 38

39. European Foreign Policy EU missions abroad…  Civilian: mainly policing operations, in Afghanistan, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Bosnia, Kosovo, Macedonia, and Palestine.  EU civilian observers have also been stationed in Georgia since the war of August 2008, as well as at the Rafah border crossing in the Palestinian Gaza Strip. 39

40. European Foreign Policy EU Missions Objectives:  To save lives (stop the civil war)  To mediate in international conflicts  To assure stability and help with the reconstruction  Nation-building in weak states EU International Aid – effective tool of EU foreign policy 40

41. European Foreign Policy THE CASE OF LIBYA Not EU operation ! French-British led with international support 41

42. European Foreign Policy  Britain did not want EU involvement, always investing into the future of NATO;  France did not want NATO and was persuaded by Obama to accept it;  Germany (and Poland) decided to go on holidays… Common approach at its best??? 42

43. European Foreign Policy 43 LIBYA IS NOT A GAME-CHANGER  It is a ‘coalition of the willing’ with France and the UK in the driving seat  The US really took a back-seat (a shock to many)  The EU will remain a „soft power” power, like in Tunisia, Egypt or mediating in the Israeli – Palestinian conflict

44. European Foreign Policy  The participants in Libya campaign realised their relative weakness – limited capabilities  Will Europe do something about it???  Probably YES but not as the EU for years to come. 44

45. European Foreign Policy There could be no such animal… determined British gentlemen 45

46. European Foreign Policy 46 There is and… there is no European Foreign and Security Policy at the moment, but we are working on it. We have o Experiences o Institutional structure Political will follows the needs CRISIS ALWAYS HELPS

47. European Foreign Policy Immediate challenge: the Neighbourhood S OUTH AND E AST How to change THREATS into shared OPPORTUNITIES 47

48. European Foreign Policy  From diverse interests, lack of trust and mutual recriminations to collective responsibility.  We do not pretend to be able to take responsibility for global security.  But we all have to contribute to global security and development. 48

49. European Foreign Policy We could build such policy with you Russia might even join the EU You are welcome! Thank you for your attention 49