1. Democracy in Ukraine: third attempt Iryna Bekeshkina Prepared for Conference “Democracy in Ukraine – On the Right Path?” December, 16, 2014, Budapest

2. 1991 – independent Ukraine: task of triple transformation Republic dependent on Moscow State economy Authoritarianism Independent state (army, currency etc.) Market economy Democracy

3. First phase of democratic transition: 1991 – late 1990s. Creation of democratic institutions Non-competitive obligatory elections One party’s monopoly on state power “The only true” ideology State media censored by the party Total isolation of citizens from outside world Genuine electoral competition; Multi-party system; Freedom of expression and beliefs; Independent non-state press, TV, and radio; Unlimited contacts with outside world. 1996 – adoption of the Constitution of Ukraine, first article states that Ukraine is a democratic state But Economic collapse, drastic drop in the living standards

4. Second phase of democratic transition: Late 1990s – 2004 Establishment of hybrid semi-authoritarian regime Dysfunctionality of democratic institutions, especially elections Limited privatization, creation of oligarchic capital Proliferation of corruption Authorities’ control over mass media BUT Strong opposition with high level of public support Development of civil society Economic growth, increase of the living standards and formation of middle class Several independent mass media (“Channel 5”)

5. Ukraine between East and West Which integration vector is a priority for Ukraine? May 2004 EU – 35% Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan – 44% Difficult to answer – 21%

6. Second attempt of democratic transition: 2005 – February 2010 Ukraine becomes a free country Freedom of opposition activities Freedom of mass media Freedom of assembly Free, competitive, and democratic elections BUT Degradation of political parties, transformation of them into leader-oriented financial corporations Rise of populism and paternalism Economic crisis of 2008-2009 and deep disappointment of people in politics

7. Ukraine (2005 – 2009) was a unique hybrid: free but corrupt country 2001 2.1 20022.4 20032.3 20042.1 20052.6 20062.8 2007 2.7 20082.4 20092.2

8. On the eve of 2010 presidential election, public opinion became more sympathetic towards authoritarianism

9. 14 February 2010 – beginning of rollback of democracy in Ukraine Reasons behind Viktor Yanukovych’s victory: 1. Sharp economic downfall as a result of global financial crisis. 2. Public disappointment in democracy, longing for “strong leader”.

10. Establishment of authoritarianism, curtailment of political rights and civil liberties (2010 – February, 2014) Political repressions Establishment of authoritarian hierarchy of power: degradation of parliament, total subordination of judiciary to executive Endemic and systematic nature of corruption Limitation of electoral competition Restriction of freedom of speech Curtailment of basic rights and freedoms BUT Activation of civil society Loss of illusions Consolidation of opposition

11. At the times of President Yanukovych Ukraine lost a status of free country and remains to be strongly corrupted state Indices of freedom ( Freedom House ): 2005-2009: Political rights – 3 Civil liberties – 2 Diagnosis: free country 2010-2012: Political rights – 4 Civil liberties – 3 Diagnosis: partly free country Corruption indices: 2010 – 2.4 2011 – 2.3 2012 - 2.6 Diagnosis: strongly corrupted country

12. Economy was subordinated to Yanukovych and his close relatives and affiliates Endemic corruption Monopolies For my friends, anything; for my enemies, the law Bribes on public procurements Expropriation of properties through courts Viktor Yanukovych’s son, Oleksandr, has during the last 6 months multiplied his wealth three times – from 187 to 510 million of USD.

13. Maidan (21 November 2013– 20 February 2014) – anti-authoritarian democratic revolution Maidan, having started as student demonstration for signing the Association Agreement with the EU, soon turned into anti- authoritarian democratic revolution which has ended with escape of Yanukovych and change of authorities.

14. New threats to Ukraine New challenges to democracy Russian aggression (Crimea, Donbas) Separation of Ukraine Civic War Economic default

15. Democracy at the Troubled Times: is it possible? Free and fair elections Dialog with the East and the South Radical reforms Civil society control

16. Free and fair election under conditions of military actions Ukraine has conducted pre-term presidential and parliamentary elections which have been recognized by international community as free and fair

17. Majority of Ukrainians have recognized the elections as free and fair How free and fair have the presidential elections been? Completely or rather fair – 62% Completely or rather unfair – 22% How free and fair have the parliamentary elections been? Completely or rather fair – 56% Completely or rather unfair – 28%

18. Majority of Ukrainians believe that the parliamentary elections will improve situation in Ukraine October 2012 October 2014 Yes, the elections will help to improve the situation 23234343 The elections won’t change anything 483232 No, the elections will only make things worse 77 Difficult to answer 16161919 Do you think that parliamentary elections will help to improve situation in Ukraine?

19. Ukrainian put main responsibility for separatism in the East of the country on Russia In your opinion, what are the reasons for separatism in the East of Ukraine? (Respondents could choose up to three answers) Provocations and subversions of Russia60,6 Pro-Russian attitudes of large part of inhabitants of this region 37,9 Actions of Donbas “oligarchs”29,7 Change of authorities of the country in February 2014 27,7 Mistakes of new Ukrainian authorities19,7 Events in Crimea17,3 Poor socio-economic situation in this region17,3 Provocations and subversions of Western countries 9,9 Excessive centralization of power in Ukraine4,8 Other1,8 Difficult to say3,4 The survey was conducted during September 5-10, 2014, by Razumkov Centre

20. Russian started to treat Ukrainians – as well as Ukrainians started to treat Russians – worse. Still, Russians have more negative attitude towards Ukrainians Dynamics of positive attitude of Ukrainians towards Russians and Russians towards Ukrainians

21. In Ukrainians’ public view, Eastern foreign vector is no longer on a same part as Western Positive attitudes towards joining union with Russia and Belarus and towards joining the EU (Data of the Institute of Sociology of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine )

22. Support of EU membership dominates in all regions, except Donbas Popular attitudes towards EU membership WestCenterSouthEastDonbasUkraine Positive756838371151 Negative7931336324 Difficult to say 172331302625

23. Ukrainians have changed their opinion on NATO and started to see it as a guarantor of security Which option of foreign security policy, in your opinion, is best for Ukraine? (Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation, Kyiv International Institute of Sociology)

24. Popular attitudes towards NATO vary in different regions Which option of foreign security policy, in your opinion, is best for Ukraine? WestCenterSouthEastDonbas Joining the NATO 78,352,724,832,45,7 Military union with Russia and other CIS countries 1,43,214,823,945,5 Non-alighed status of Ukraine 6,917,936,723,739,8 Other 0,00,11,90,50,3 Difficult to say 13,426,121,919,48,7

25. In Ukraine, national self-identification has grown Who do yourself consider in the first place? July 2013July 2014 An inhabitant of my village/town/city 2916 An inhabitant of my region 88 A citizen of Ukraine5165 A representative of my ethnos 22 A citizen of the USSR75 A citizen of Europe11 A citizen of the world22 Other11

26. Identification with Ukrainian citizenship dominates in all regions, except Donbas WestCenterSouthEastDonbasUkraine An inhabitant of my village/town/city 14 25141816 An inhabitant of my region7255278 A citizen of Ukraine7076596734 65 A representative of my ethnos321312 A citizen of the USSR0369145 A citizen of Europe311111 A citizen of the world113252 Other110011

27. In Ukraine, national pride has grown July 2013July 2014 Very proud or rather proud 4863 Not proud at all or rather not proud 2510 Difficult to answer 27 Are you proud of being a citizen of Ukraine?

28. Ukrainians are generally satisfied with president’s and prime minister’s actions Completely and mostly satisfied with activities of Prime Minister Yatseniuk – 52% Completely and mostly dissatisfied with activities of Prime Minister Yatseniuk – 40% Completely and mostly satisfied with activities of President Poroshenko – 49% Completely and mostly dissatisfied with activities of President Poroshenko – 42% November 2014, Rating Group

29. Main tasks for Ukraine Establishment of peace in Donbas Conduction of radical reforms Renewal of authorities and improvement of quality of politics

30. Main hot points of democratic reforms in Ukraine Anti-corruption reform Law enforcement and judiciary systems reform Lustration of former officials Civil service reform Electoral reform

31. Ukraine at the crossroad: to be or not to be? Ukraine as independent country could survive only as integral part of Europe. If Europe turns away from Ukraine, it will cease to be value-based community. The future of post- communist part of Europe is now being determined on Ukrainian soil.