1. Economic Outlook 2000 Hawaii Economic Association Annual Conference April 28, 2000

2. Hawaii Economic Association Conference April 28, 2000 http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO Economic Outlook 2000 1999 Year in Review Business Cycle Expansion Signals Clear End to Growth Recession1999 Year in Review 2000 Economic Outlook *US Economic expansion continues amazing run *Japanese Economy showing some signs of growth *Hawai’i economic engine firing on all cylinders

3. Hawaii Economic Association Conference April 28, 2000 http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO 1999 Year in Review Visitor Industry Returns to Growth *Decline in Eastbound Arrivals slows *Westbound Arrivals growth strong *Room rates rise 1.7 %

4. Hawaii Economic Association Conference April 28, 2000 http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO 1999 Year in Review Construction Sector Bottoms Out *Real contracting tax base ? *Home Resales continue strong *Permits growth signals rebound in construction

5. Hawaii Economic Association Conference April 28, 2000 http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO 1999 Year in Review Job Growth Resumes *Non Ag Job growth resumes *Employment growth continues *Unemployment nears US average

6. Hawaii Economic Association Conference April 28, 2000 http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO 1999 Year in Review Expanding Economy Grows Real Tax Base *Retail tax base grows with visitor industry *Hotel Tax Base down in real terms --looks like allocation problem! *Overall tax base expanding more slowly than income

7. Hawaii Economic Association Conference April 28, 2000 http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO 1999 Year in Review Income Growth and Prices *Nominal income growth exceeds 2% for third year *Inflation returns to islands *Real income growth expected above 2%

8. Hawaii Economic Association Conference April 28, 2000 http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO Year 2000: Global Outlook US fairytale expansion continues to set records *No clear signs of end to expansion with consumer and business spending strong *Inflation still moderate Japanese Economy still plugging along *Real GDP grew by just 0.3% in 1999 *Government spending 47% of 1999 growth *Business expectations and profit rates improving

9. Hawaii Economic Association Conference April 28, 2000 http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO US Income Growth Strong Japan ? Were Still Waiting

10. Hawaii Economic Association Conference April 28, 2000 http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO NASDAQ Growth Forecast

11. Hawaii Economic Association Conference April 28, 2000 http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO 2000 Outlook: All Sectors Contribute to Growth Visitor growth expected to exceed 3.5 % Real contracting will expand at a 4.5 % rate Job and employment growth continue at near 1% Real income to grow at 2.4% Inflation will accelerate to 1.8% rate

12. Hawaii Economic Association Conference April 28, 2000 http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO Visitor Arrivals Growth Expected to top 3%

13. Hawaii Economic Association Conference April 28, 2000 http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO Expected Contracting Growth Strongest in 10 years

14. Hawaii Economic Association Conference April 28, 2000 http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO Labor Market Firms

15. Hawaii Economic Association Conference April 28, 2000 http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO Moderate Real Income Growth Continues

16. Hawaii Economic Association Conference April 28, 2000 http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO Honolulu Inflation Still Playing Catch Up

17. Hawaii Economic Association Conference April 28, 2000 http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO 2000 Outlook