1. Projecting Student Enrollment MoAsbo Spring Conference, 2001 Copies of all handouts/worksheets/presentation also found at Park Hill’s Web Site http://www.parkhill.k12.mo.us/moasbo

2. MoAsbo Spring Conference, 2001 Introductions & Agenda Introduction – Presenter Paul Kelly, Director Of Instructional Technology Park Hill School District, Kansas City, Missouri – Pvkelly@parkhill.k12.mo.us Pvkelly@parkhill.k12.mo.us – 816/741-1521 – Park Hill School District 9000 Students 13 Schools (+1 in construction)

3. MoAsbo Spring Conference, 2001 Introductions & Agenda Agenda For Presentation Agenda For Presentation – Utility of Accurate Enrollment Projections Why do School Districts Need to Project School Enrollment? – Data needed for Enrollment Projecting Defining “Enrollment” Historical Enrollment Data County Population Data & Projections County/City Building Permit (Housing Starts) Reports Projection Methods – Building the Report – Resources

4. UTILITY OF ACCURATE ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS Why Do Schools Need to Project School Enrollment? Budgeting For Future Years Project Staffing Needs Anticipating Building Needs Benefits of “Demographic Profile Report”

5. DATA NEEDED FOR ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS Getting Organized Define Enrollment Collect Current Data Collect Historical Data Decide on Projection Methodologies Analyze Data Build Report

6. DEFINING ENROLLMENT What is Enrollment? Enrollment (8858)* – Enrollment is a head count of all students registered for district programs. – Based upon enrollment on 4 th Wednesday of September and January Membership (8868)* – Includes all enrolled pupils plus students participating in external programs funded by the District ADA (Average Daily Attendance) (8076)* – Average number of students who attended school on any given day during the school year Other – FTE (Full Time Equivalent) (8544)* – Eligible Pupil * PHSD 1999-200 Figures

7. COLLECTING DATA Data Needed For Accurate Projections Current & Historical Enrollment Data Current & Historical County Population Statistics Current & Historical Housing Data

8. Current & Historical Enrollment Data

9. Enrollment By Park Hill School Official Count Day - September 2000 PAGE 9 of MO-ASBO HANDOUT

10. CURRENT & HISTORICAL ENROLLMENT DATA Enrollment by Grade Level PAGE 10 of MO-ASBO HANDOUT

11. CURRENT & HISTORICAL ENROLLMENT DATA Enrollment by School NOT INCLUDED IN MO-ASBO HANDOUT

12. CURRENT & HISTORICAL ENROLLMENT DATA Enrollment History PAGE 15 of MO-ASBO HANDOUT

13. CURRENT & HISTORICAL ENROLLMENT DATA Enrollment Growth PAGE 16 of MO-ASBO HANDOUT

14. CURRENT & HISTORICAL ENROLLMENT DATA Enrollment Growth PAGE 21 of MO-ASBO HANDOUT

15. Projection Methodologies

16. PROJECTION METHODOLOGIES Cohort Survival “How many 6 th Graders will be enrolled in Park Hill next year? – What I know: 698 5 th graders were enrolled in 2000-2001 Based Upon Historical Enrollment Data I can calculate “cohort survival” rates from 5 th to 6 th Grade 5 th Grade Class6 th Grade ClassCohort Survival Rate 97/9860398/99642+6.5% 98/9973999/00746+1.0% 99/0066400/01674+1.5% Average = 3.0%

17. STUDENT ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS Enrollment History PAGE 15 of MO-ASBO HANDOUT

18. PROJECTION METHODOLOGIES Cohort Survival “How many 6 th Graders will be enrolled in Park Hill next year? 698 5 th Graders in 2000-01 x +3.0% Cohort Survival Rate = 21 Additional Students Projecting 719 6 th Graders During 2000-01 School Year

19. PROJECTION METHODOLOGIES Cohort Survival Cohort Survival – Cohort survival is a measure of the rate at which students grouped by grade level pass into the next grade level a year later. – To minimize the effects of an exceptional year, three and seven year cohorts are calculated by averaging the cohort survival for three and seven years respectively. – Park Hill utilizes two Cohort Survival Methods : 3 Year Cohort Data & 7 Year Cohort Data U PAGE 26 of MO-ASBO HANDOUT

20. PROJECTION METHODOLOGIES Cohort Survival Cohort Survival – One problem with Cohort Survival is that there is no way to predict Kindergarten enrollment because there is no preceding grade. – Park Hill has utilized “Live Birth” Data From Platte County Birth Data http://www.health.state.mo.us PAGE 26 of MO-ASBO HANDOUT

21. PROJECTION METHODOLOGIES Cohort Survival By calculating the % of births 5 years earlier, upcoming Kindergarten class sizes can be “projected” PAGE 26 of MO-ASBO HANDOUT

22. STUDENT ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS Cohort Projections 3-Year Cohort 7-Year Cohort

23. PROJECTION METHODOLOGIES Household Data Household – Enrollment projections, based on households, provide an opportunity to determine student enrollment further in the future. Part of the downfall to this approach is the projection of both households in the district as well as the number of school age children in each household. PAGE 22 of MO-ASBO HANDOUT

24. PROJECTION METHODOLOGIES Household Data Collecting New Household Data PAGE 19 of MO-ASBO HANDOUT

25. PROJECTION METHODOLOGIES Household Data As the district continues to increase households, the number of students per household multiplied by the projected households will provide an enrollment projection. The make these projections the following steps are followed: 1. Project the number of households in the Park Hill School District based upon historical growth. 2. Project the number of students per household based upon historical growth. 3. Calculate district enrollment based upon the above two projections. 4. Distribute the enrollment across Elementary, Middle and High School levels according to historical distribution. 123 4

26. PROJECTION METHODOLOGIES Method Comparisons PAGE 33 of MO-ASBO HANDOUT

27. ANALYZING THE DATA Getting Organized Define Enrollment Collect Current Data Collect Historical Data Decide on Projection Methodologies Analyze Data Build Report

28. ANALYZING THE DATA Elementary Building Need PAGE 35 of MO-ASBO HANDOUT

29. ANALYZING THE DATA Middle School Building Need PAGE 36 of MO-ASBO HANDOUT

30. ANALYZING THE DATA High School Building Need PAGE 37 of MO-ASBO HANDOUT

31. BUILDING THE REPORT Getting Organized Define Enrollment Collect Current Data Collect Historical Data Decide on Projection Methodologies Analyze Data Build Report

32. BUILDING THE REPORT “Demographic Profile” Final report is prepared in Microsoft Word using graphs, tables and charts from Microsoft Excel. – Displayed on Internet as Adobe Acrobat (PDF) File Report also includes – Demographic Comparisons (Community & School) http://oseda.missouri.edu – Governor’s Report Card http://www.dese.state.mo.us – Maps – Definitions

33. ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS Questions?