1. Calculation of Preliminary Water Demand Projections for the Mhlabatshane Bulk Water Supply Scheme Stats SA’s IsiBalo Conference Break-Away 3: Service Delivery in a Municipal Context Moses Mabhida Stadium Durban 13 September 2013 Alka Ramnath Umgeni Water

2. Purpose Show how the preliminary water demand projections for the Mhlabatshane Bulk Water Supply Scheme were calculated.

3. Methodology: Delineation of the Supply Zones

4. Demographics: - Census 2001 Not to scale

5. Zone Name Number of People per Zone (Area Weighted) 2001 Number of Households per Zone (Area Weighted) 2001 Approximate HH Size 2001 Bhekani10522284.8 Frankland14262725.4 Hlubi867417694.9 KwaCele 11125723584.7 KwaCele K1126621505.2 KwaMadlala1012519645.0 Mabheleni (West)1023919335.1 Nhlangwini (West)1478331394.7 Qwabe P550210715.2 Shabeni609410295.1 Table 1 Number of people and households as per Census 2001.

6. Demographics: - DWA’s WSNIS (2011) Not to scale

7. Zone Name Number of People per Zone (Area Weighted) 2011 Number of Households per Zone (Area Weighted) 2011 Bhekani967203 Frankland2687556 Hlubi91821900 KwaCele 1117672440 KwaCele K200624272 KwaMadlala155693840 Mabheleni (West)162123360 Nhlangwini (West)134142836 Qwabe P64321336 Shabeni75651851 Table 2 Number of people and households as per WSNIS 2011.

8. Eskom Building Count 2008 Not to scale

9. Zone Name Number of Buildings 2008 Bhekani150 Frankland373 Hlubi1363 KwaCele 11964 KwaCele K1574 KwaMadlala1891 Mabheleni (West)1394 Nhlangwini (West)2915 Qwabe P643 Shabeni1266 Table 3 Number of buildings per supply zone (Eskom 2008).

10. Demographics: - Ugu’s Infrastructure Audit 2011 Not to scale

11. Zone Name Number of Households (Area Weighted) Bhekani139.2290 Frankland353.0500 Hlubi1113.7770 KwaCele 11870.2230 KwaCele K1405.5300 KwaMadlala1775.3440 Mabheleni (West)1003.0550 Nhlangwini (West)2769.2360 Qwabe P630.6660 Shabeni1130.0820 Table 4 Number of households per Supply Zone (Ugu Infrastructure Audit 2011).

12. Comparison of the Demographic Datasets Zone SBA Report (after Census 2001) Census 2001 Number of People per Zone (Area Weighted) WSNIS 2011 Number of People per Zone (Area Weighted) Bhekani13051052967 Frankland420014262687 Hlubi488086749182 KwaCele 1119341125711767 KwaCele K90121126620062 KwaMadlala105001012515569 Mabhaleni (West)104321023916212 Nhlangwini (West)254001478313414 Qwabe P636055026432 Shabeni1476060947565 Table 5 Comparison of the number of people per Supply Zone.

13. Zone SBA Report (after Census 2001) Census 2001 Number of Households per Zone (Area Weighted) WSNIS 2011 Number of Households per Zone (Area Weighted) Eskom Building Count 2008 Number of Buildings Ugu Infrastructure Audit 2011 (after Ugu's SDF 2011) Number of Households (Area Weighted) Bhekani261228203150139 Frankland600272556373353 Hlubi9761769190013631114 KwaCele 119892358244019641870 KwaCele K22532150427215741406 KwaMadlala21001964384018911775 Mabhaleni (West)13041933336013941003 Nhlangwini (West)31753139283629152769 Qwabe P79510711336643631 Shabeni18451029185112661130 Table 6 Comparison of the number of households per Supply Zone.

14. Demographic Projections Projection horizon = 30 years. Rates Scenario2010201520202025203020352040 DBSA Average Annual Growth Factor: KZN High Aids Impact 0.00950.00580.0008 DBSA Average Annual Growth Factor: KZN Low Aids Impact 0.01780.01510.0134 Growth Rate = 0.30.3 Table 7 Rates used for the population scenarios.

15. Scenarios Zone 20082010201520202025203020352040 Bhekani750.01,012.41,042.21,046.41,050.61,054.81,059.01,063.2 Frankland1,865.02,517.52,591.62,601.92,612.42,622.82,633.42,643.9 Hlubi6,815.09,199.39,470.09,507.99,546.09,584.39,622.79,661.3 KwaCele 19,820.013,255.613,645.713,700.313,755.313,810.413,865.713,921.3 KwaCele K7,870.010,623.410,936.010,979.811,023.811,068.011,112.411,156.9 KwaMadlala9,455.012,762.913,138.513,191.113,244.013,297.113,350.413,403.9 Mabhaleni (West)6,970.09,408.59,685.49,724.29,763.29,802.39,841.69,881.0 Nhlangwini (West)14,575.019,674.220,253.120,334.320,415.820,497.620,579.820,662.2 Qwabe P3,215.04,339.84,467.54,485.44,503.44,521.44,539.54,557.7 Shabeni6,330.08,544.68,796.08,831.38,866.78,902.28,937.98,973.7 Table 8 DBSA High AIDS Scenario (Eskom Building Count 2008 and Assuming Average Household Size of 5).

16. Zone 20082010201520202025203020352040 Bhekani750.01,012.41,091.81,167.41,248.31,334.81,427.31,526.3 Frankland1,865.02,517.52,714.92,903.03,104.23,319.33,549.33,795.3 Hlubi6,815.09,199.39,920.710,608.211,343.312,129.312,969.813,868.6 KwaCele 19,820.013,255.614,295.215,285.816,345.017,477.618,688.719,983.8 KwaCele K7,870.010,623.411,456.512,250.413,099.314,007.014,977.616,015.5 KwaMadlala9,455.012,762.913,763.814,717.615,737.516,828.017,994.119,241.0 Mabhaleni (West)6,970.09,408.510,146.410,849.511,601.312,405.213,264.814,184.0 Nhlangwini (West)14,575.019,674.221,217.122,687.424,259.525,940.627,738.129,660.2 Qwabe P3,215.04,339.84,680.15,004.45,351.25,722.16,118.66,542.6 Shabeni6,330.08,544.69,214.79,853.210,536.011,266.112,046.812,881.6 Table 9 DBSA Low AIDS Scenario (Eskom Building Count 2008 and Assuming Average Household Size of 5).

17. Zone 20082010201520202025203020352040 Bhekani750.01,012.41,067.01,106.91,149.41,194.81,243.21,294.7 Frankland1,865.02,517.52,653.22,752.52,858.32,971.13,091.33,219.6 Hlubi6,815.09,199.39,695.310,058.110,444.710,856.811,296.311,764.9 KwaCele 19,820.013,255.613,970.414,493.015,050.115,644.016,277.216,952.5 KwaCele K7,870.010,623.411,196.211,615.112,061.612,537.513,045.013,586.2 KwaMadlala9,455.012,762.913,451.113,954.414,490.715,062.515,672.216,322.4 Mabhaleni (West)6,970.09,408.59,915.910,286.810,682.211,103.711,553.212,032.5 Nhlangwini (West)14,575.019,674.220,735.121,510.822,337.623,219.124,158.925,161.2 Qwabe P3,215.04,339.84,573.84,744.94,927.35,121.75,329.15,550.1 Shabeni6,330.08,544.69,005.49,342.39,701.410,084.210,492.410,927.7 Table 10 Middle Scenario (Eskom Building Count 2008 and Assuming Average Household Size of 5).

18. Zone 20082010201520202025203020352040 Bhekani 750.01,012.44,537.220,334.591,132.8408,428.91,830,451.58,203,514.4 Frankland 1,865.02,517.511,282.650,565.1226,616.91,015,626.64,551,722.720,399,405.8 Hlubi 6,815.09,199.341,228.3184,772.6828,093.53,711,257.616,632,702.574,542,600.9 KwaCele 1 9,820.013,255.659,407.5266,246.11,193,232.35,347,696.223,966,711.4107,411,348.6 KwaCele K 7,870.010,623.447,610.7213,376.5956,287.04,285,780.919,207,537.686,082,211.2 KwaMadlala 9,455.012,762.957,199.4256,350.01,148,881.05,148,927.423,075,891.7103,418,971.6 Mabhaleni (West) 6,970.09,408.542,166.0188,975.1846,927.63,795,666.217,010,995.876,237,993.9 Nhlangwini (West) 14,575.019,674.288,173.6395,166.71,771,014.37,937,135.635,571,773.8159,421,630.0 Qwabe P 3,215.04,339.819,449.687,167.1390,656.01,750,798.77,846,535.435,165,731.8 Shabeni 6,330.08,544.638,294.3171,623.0769,160.93,447,140.215,449,010.569,237,661.6 Table 11 Growth Rate = 0.3 (Eskom Building Count 2008 and Assuming Average Household Size of 5).

19. Water Projections  Water consumption pattern – income levels.  Average daily consumption per capita (kl/c/day) = 0.075  Water losses = 1.3 Assumptions:

20. Results

21. Household size and income distribution useful. Mid-Year Population Estimates. Evidence-based planning, users appear more comfortable with a Building Count dataset. Unavailability of datasets at required scale for the Component Method of population projections. Lessons Learnt

22. Thank you!