1. The Future of the “New” Europe and its Population Francesco C. Billari Università Bocconi in collaboration with Carlo Altomonte Università Bocconi June 23, 2005

2. Outline of the talk EU and its enlargements: how many Europeans? The Social Agenda 2005-2010 Age structure and sustainability Why is the EU population ageing? Key references

3. 1957 1973 1986 1981 1995 The EU enlargements Luxembourg Group - 1998 Helsinki Group - 1999 May 2004 Turkey (?) 2007- 2009

4. The New Europe: Schengen Countries in the Schengen area, not EU Member States and not Candidate Countries EU Member States not in the Schengen area Candidate Countries EU Member States in the Schengen area

8. The Lisbon Strategy and the Social Agenda Heads of State and Government met in Lisbon (2000). Aim is to make the EU “the most dynamic and competitive knowledge- based economy in the world” 2005 under the “revamped” Lisbon strategy for employment and growth: Social Agenda with two key priorities: –Employment –Fighting poverty and equal opportunities

9. The Social Agenda: employment Creating a European labour market, through enabling workers to take pension and social security entitlements with them when they work in a different Member States and by establishing an optional framework for collective bargaining across frontiers; the Commission will also examine transition periods for workers from new Member States; Getting more people into better jobs, particularly through the European Youth Initiative and supporting women in (re-)entering the labour market; Updating labour law to address needs created by new forms of work, i.e. particular short term contracts; a new health and safety strategy; Managing the process of restructuring through the social dialogue.

10. The Social Agenda: poverty and equal opportunities Analysing the impact of ageing populations and the future of relations between the different generations, by launching a Green Paper on demography Supporting the Member States in reforming pensions and health care and tackling poverty; Tackling discrimination and inequality; the Commission will examine minimum income schemes in the Member States and set out a policy approach for tackling discrimination, particularly against ethnic minorities such as the Roma; Fostering equal opportunities between women and men, for example by setting up a gender institute; Clarifying the role and characteristics of social services of general interest.

11. The Social Agenda: poverty and equal opportunities Analysing the impact of ageing populations and the future of relations between the different generations, by launching a Green Paper on demography Supporting the Member States in reforming pensions and health care and tackling poverty; Tackling discrimination and inequality; the Commission will examine minimum income schemes in the Member States and set out a policy approach for tackling discrimination, particularly against ethnic minorities such as the Roma; Fostering equal opportunities between women and men, for example by setting up a gender institute; Clarifying the role and characteristics of social services of general interest.

12. Source: Altomonte and Nava (2005), Chapter 5 as elaborated from Morrisson and Murtin (2004). COHESION Indicators of total inequality in EU-15 9.212.413.820.134.9Poverty (20$ a day) 1.1 1.02.210.4 Absolute poverty (10$/day) 0.0070.008 0.0090.0160.017- Across-countries 0.152 0.1420.1450.1300.152- Within-country 0.1590.1600.1500.1540.1460.169Theil Index 0.3080.3090.3030.3010.2990.32Gini Coefficient 1.86 1.731.771.732.01Top 5% / Bottom 20% 200019981995199019801970Tot. inequality indicator

13. 0.8550.1900.2550.2200.160Total inequality 0.513-0.0850.0640.008 “between-country” inequality 0.342-0.1700.1560.152 “within-country” inequality World (1995) USA (1995) EU27 Turkey (1998) EU27 (1998) EU15 (1998) Inequality Index (Theil index) Source: Altomonte and Nava (2005), Chapter 5 as elaborated from Morrisson and Murtin (2004). COHESION Inequalities in the enlarged EU vs. the USA and the world

14. Age structure and sustainability The age structure of a population at a given time t is the function of: –Fertility and mortality between about t-100 and t –Immigration and emigration between about t-100 and t Moreover, the age structure of a population carries what is defined as ‘population momentum’: those who will be aged 40 in 20 years are already born…

15. An example of a ‘young’ population in the Mediterranean

16. An example of a ‘mature’ population

17. An example of a forecast ‘aged’ population