1. Demographics & Your Community: Creating a Demographic Profile 2014 Cornell Municipal Clerks Institute Robin Blakely-Armitage CaRDI – Community & Regional Development Institute rmb18@cornell.edu July 14, 2014

2. What we will cover today  Why we need data  Demographic community profiles  What data or indicators should we include?  Where do we access reliable data?  What do our profiles tell us about our communities?  Who might we share this information with in our community?

3. “Demography is like tofu……. For many people, it’s hard to stomach on its own......

4. * I am eternally grateful to Warren Brown at CISER & PAD for this quote! … But it has a lot to contribute, particularly when mixed with other things”*

5. Demography is Not Destiny  Demographic changes can propel communities upward or downward  Can pose challenges  Can enhance opportunities  Impacts of population changes are not automatic  Mediated by  Local social structure  National and international environments in which they are embedded

6. How many people? Who and where are they? Some basic demographic trends to pay attention to  Population change  Even if community population is stable, it is unlikely that the composition is stable  Change in Population Composition  Age structure  Poverty/Income  Unemployment status  Educational attainment  Other characteristics (race/ethnicity, foreign born status, renters/owners, source of income, social service participation rates, etc.)

7. Why we need demographic data

8. Discussion #1: What do local governments need data for? and/or Do YOU use demographic information in your job?

9. What do we need data for?  A primary mission of local governments is to deliver efficient services & enact policies that advance public safety & economic growth  Data can help frame issues in the proper context and help governments and other organizations create proposals, develop budgets, prioritize issues, and pursue strategies to address well-documented needs.  Data helps to identify, measure, document, and track these issues.

10. Basic questions that data can answer that are useful (necessary) for planning  What are past trends?  What are future projections?  Does your community fit the regional pattern, or is it unique?  What are the possible implications of these trends for your community?  Having good data can help you plan for these changes, anticipate the changing needs of residents, and be proactive in meeting challenges and taking advantage of opportunities, i.e., better outcomes!

11. Community Demographic Profile

12. What is a community demographic profile, & what does it allow you to do?  Describes key characteristics of a community, or other geographic unit  Allows you to compare your community to other communities, to the greater region or to any other geographic area  Track trends over time  Goal of better understanding the dynamics of your community, how is it similar to or how it varies from other places.  Can confirm or contradict assumptions about one’s community  Other?

13. What demographic indicators should we look for & use?  Some communities have a clear sense of current issues and emerging needs. This will inform what data they gather to measure and benchmark: Issues/Needs  Data  Some communities will examine data in an exploratory manner – data will help reveal current issues, emerging needs, etc, and should lead to additional data exploration Data  Issues/Needs  Data  Ideally, the process is iterative. That is, even with clear-cut ideas, a community is open to exploring data to reveal additional information about community. May lead to new priorities and goals.

14. What information or data should you include in your community demographic profile? To start, you might include indicators such as: Population trends and projections Age structure Disability status Race/ethnic composition Employment rate Unemployment rate Industrial composition of labor force Occupational composition of labor force Commuting patterns Educational attainment levels Migration patterns – net, international, internal, etc Per capita, household, family income Poverty rates for children, families, households, elderly, etc but the sky is the limit & may vary by focal area or issue

15. Discussion #2: Are there existing profiles for your community on-line?

16. What is the best data source? The Census Bureau is the gold standard, but with caveats…..

17. Census Geography: Through its many surveys, the Census Bureau reports data for a wide variety of geographic types, ranging from the entire United States down to a Census Block. The geographic types that a survey reports on will depend upon the survey's purpose, and how the data were collected.

18. 18 American Community Survey (ACS)  Data is currently available for all geographic areas down to the block group level. Areas with a population 65,000+: 1-Year Estimates Areas with a population 20,000+: 3-Year Estimates Areas below 20,000 (incl. census tracts & block groups): 5-Yr. estimates

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20. ACS – Housing Characteristics  Tenure  Occupancy & Structure  Housing Value  Taxes & Insurance  Utilities  Mortgage/Monthly Rent

21. ACS – Social Characteristics  Education  Marital Status  Fertility  Grandparent Caregivers  Veterans  Disability Status  Place of Birth  Citizenship  Year of Entry  Language Spoken at Home  Ancestry / Tribal Affiliation

22. ACS – Economic Characteristics  Income  Benefits  Employment Status  Occupation  Industry  Commuting to Work  Place of Work

23. ACS – Demographic Characteristics  Sex  Age  Race  Hispanic Origin

24. Key Differences Between the ACS and Census 2000 ACS  Annual Updates  Period Estimates  Smaller Sample  Controls are Estimates  Margins of Error Published  Annual Updates  Most Recent 2011/2012  Sample: 1-in-40 Households (each year) Census 2000  Once a Decade  Point Estimates  Larger Sample  Controls are Counts  Margins of Error Not Published  Every Ten Years  Most Recent 2000  Sample: 1-in-6 Households (every 10 years)

25. Caution using sample data Remember: the ACS is based on a sample  As sample size decreases relative to total population, the variation in the estimate – the margin of error - increases.  The margin of error is a way to express how “good” an estimate is. It describes the uncertainty, because of sampling, that surrounds an estimate – it is what we predict the likely range is.  Margins of error are reminders of the limitations of the estimates.  The multi-year estimates may have smaller margin of errors than the single year estimates. 25

26. Where can we find reliable data?

27. Where can you find reliable data for your community? U.S. Census Bureau http://census.gov PAD – Cornell Program on Applied Demographics http://pad.human.cornell.edu Headwaters Economics http://headwaterseconomics.org/tools/eps-hdt

28. Lets visit those sites briefly…..

29. U.S. Census Bureau http://www.census.gov “ Quickfacts” on left-hand side of page is a good start http://www.census.gov

30. Cornell PAD Program on Applied Demographics The Program on Applied Demographics brings skills in demographics, economics, statistics, data gathering and data analysis. PAD works closely with the New York State Department of Economic Development, the U.S. Census Bureau and other organizations to assist them in their activities. http://pad.human.cornell.edu Maps, Data, Projections, ACS Calculator, Workshops, Publications, etc NYS County profiles: http://pad.human.cornell.edu/profiles/index.cfm Sub-County profiles (Cities, Towns, & Villages): http://pad.human.cornell.edu/profiles/subcounty/SchuylerMCD.pdf

31. http://headwaterseconomics.org/tools/eps-hdt Create regions, compare geographies, run 14 different reports, includes study guides, data for sub-county units as well. Headwaters Socio-Economic Profile Toolkit – It’s FREE!!!

32. Example #1: Run a socio-demographic report for a “region” (using whatever counties and/or states you choose)  Download free EPS-HDT software to your computer  Open Excel  Select “Add-ins” from top menu  Select “EPS-HDT” from top left, click “Select Geographies” from drop-down menu  Select 1 st General Report, Socioeconomic Measures (check box)  Select counties or states to include in a region, and give your region a “title”  select geography to compare as a benchmark (entire state, non- metro part, etc).  “Run” 32

33. Example #2: Run a summary report comparing two or more counties  Select “Add-ins” from top menu  Select “EPS-HDT” from top left, click “Select Geographies” from drop-down menu  Select “Detailed Reports, Summary” (check box)  Select counties to compare individually (select state first). By default the system will also create a “region” of these individual counties (even if it doesn’t make sense…) so you may want to give this region a “title”. Otherwise, ignore the region in the resulting report.  “Run”

34. Example #3: Run a demographic report comparing two or more towns, villages, cities, and/or counties (sub-county geography only available for Demographic detailed report)  Select “Add-ins” from top menu  Select “EPS-HDT” from top left, click “Select Geographies” from drop-down menu  Select “Detailed Reports, Demographics” (check box)  First select the state within which you will select smaller geographies.  Then select the geographic level. Cities and towns will be found by selecting “County subdivisions” in drop-down menu and are organized alphabetically within counties. Villages will be found by selecting “Cities and Towns and Census Designated Places (CDP)” and are organized alphabetically for the whole state.  “Run”

35. Examples #4-11 !!!!: Run reports comparing two or more counties, creating a region, etc using the following reports:  Demographics  Mining & Energy  Services  Travel & Tourism  Government  Non-Labor  Timber  Land Use

36. Features of the Headwaters System:  Similar to PAD profiles, you can copy graphics and tables from reports  Nice cover page, table of contents, etc.  Includes a “study guide” on opposite page which includes “what do we measure on this page”, “why is it important”, “methods”, and additional resources”. PAD profiles also includes a glossary of terms.  Estimates with higher margins of error are noted by orange or red font – use cautiously!  Demographic data for all U.S. states, counties, cities, towns, villages, american indian areas, and congressional districts

37. Links to some other useful data sources:  Home Mortgage Disclosure Act Data: http://www.ffiec.gov/hmda/default.htmhttp://www.ffiec.gov/hmda/default.htm  Postal Service Vacancy Data: http://www.huduser.org/portal/usps/home.htmlhttp://www.huduser.org/portal/usps/home.html  American Housing Survey: http://www.census.gov/housing/ahs/http://www.census.gov/housing/ahs/  Survey of Building Permits: http://censtats.census.gov/bldg/bldgprmt.shtmlhttp://censtats.census.gov/bldg/bldgprmt.shtml  Housing Assistance Council, Rural Data Portal: http://www.ruraldataportal.org/http://www.ruraldataportal.org/  Thematic Maps of NYS: http://205.232.252.81/thematic_maps.asphttp://205.232.252.81/thematic_maps.asp  State and County Quickfacts: http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/  American FactFinder (population, income, education, and social characteristics): http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/index.xhtml http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/index.xhtml  County Business Patterns: http://censtats.census.gov/cbpnaic/cbpnaic.shtmlhttp://censtats.census.gov/cbpnaic/cbpnaic.shtml  Net Migration Rates for U.S. Counties: http://www.netmigration.wisc.edu/http://www.netmigration.wisc.edu/  New York State Department of Labor Statistics: http://www.labor.ny.gov/stats/index.shtmhttp://www.labor.ny.gov/stats/index.shtm  USDA – Economic Research Center: http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/state-fact-sheets.aspxhttp://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/state-fact-sheets.aspx  Center for Urban Research - http://www.urbanresearch.org/resources/census-2010-NYS-links-rounduphttp://www.urbanresearch.org/resources/census-2010-NYS-links-roundup  New York State County Health Indicator Profiles: http://www.health.state.ny.us/statistics/chip/index.htmhttp://www.health.state.ny.us/statistics/chip/index.htm  NYS Department of Health- Health Statistics: http://www.health.ny.gov/statistics/http://www.health.ny.gov/statistics/  Comparison data on purchasing power, business activity, and workforce density for all residential ZIP codes and the 100 largest metro areas in the U.S. http://www4.uwm.edu/eti/etizip.cfmhttp://www4.uwm.edu/eti/etizip.cfm  Aging – NY State Office of the Aging: http://www.aging.ny.gov/http://www.aging.ny.gov/

38. Understanding & interpreting the data you’ve collected

39. Understanding & Interpreting Data: Important things to consider  No single indicator is representative of the entire community or county or region or state.  One time point does not necessarily represent the community over time.  Local data is most useful and informative when:  Examined over time – need trend data.  Compared to other places.  Multiple measures are used.  Graphs, charts and maps are usually better than tables of numbers for communicating data to an audience.  Does the data make sense?  Data and numbers do not tell the story without interpretation, context, etc.  Pay attention to Margins of Error!!!!

40. Let’s create a demographic profile of your community & then we’ll have a general discussion, starting with these questions….  What are some population trends that you notice about your community?  Any surprises?  Are there any trends or patterns you see that might present challenges for your community?

41. General Discussion  Do you use data in your community to make decisions?  If yes, what sources do you trust and typically rely on?  If not, what other kinds of information is used?  What kinds of data and information do you need to make everyday decisions in your community?  Are there specific types of data that you wish were available but are difficult to access?  Do you typically find it difficult to find and access the data you need?  Please share some examples of how you use data in your planning and decision- making efforts in your community.  What groups and organizations might you share your community profile with?

42. Thank you & Good Luck!!! Robin Blakely-Armitage rmb18@cornell.edu