1. Modelling the impact of three sets of future vehicle emission standards on PM concentrations in the Lower Fraser Valley Weimin Jiang, Éric Giroux, Dazhong Yin, and Helmut Roth National Research Council of Canada

2. 2004 Models-3 Conference, October 18-21, 2004 2 Outline  Introduction  The modelling scenarios  Impact of the emission standards on PM 2.5  Other impacts  Summary and discussions

3. 2004 Models-3 Conference, October 18-21, 2004 3 Introduction  Objective: To study the impact of three sets of future vehicle emission standards on ambient PM concentrations in the Lower Fraser Valley.  The modelling system: CMAQ version 4.1 with NRC’s modifications SMOKE v1.4&2.0; MM5 v3; MCIP v2.2 NRC’s PM x post-processor (for calculating PM x,ca )  Modelling domain Nested 15- and 5-km domains focused on Lower Fraser Valley

4. 2004 Models-3 Conference, October 18-21, 2004 4 Modelling domain Analysis is focused on the 5 km resolution inner domain.

5. 2004 Models-3 Conference, October 18-21, 2004 5 Scenarios: BA, FBA, FNM 1.BA: the Pacific ’93 base case scenario 0:00 July 31 – 24:00 August 7, 1993; 2.FBA: the 2020 future base case scenario BA projected to 2020 without considering the three sets of emission standards to be modelled; 3.FNM: the 2020 future no mobile scenario FBA – mobile source emissions

6. 2004 Models-3 Conference, October 18-21, 2004 6 4.ES: the emission standards scenario FBA + three sets of vehicle emission standards: 1)The light–duty Tier 2 vehicle emission standards to be implemented from 2004; 2)The heavy–duty vehicle NMHC and NO x emission standards to be implemented from 2004; 3)The heavy duty vehicle NO x and PM emissions and low sulphur on–road diesel standards to be implemented from 2007. Scenario: ES

7. 2004 Models-3 Conference, October 18-21, 2004 7 Scenario emissions

8. 2004 Models-3 Conference, October 18-21, 2004 8 Spatial impact: episode-average PM 2.5

9. 2004 Models-3 Conference, October 18-21, 2004 9 Spatial impact: on-road mobile contributions to episode-average PM 2.5 A Mobile–Impacted Area (MIA): on–road mobile sources contribute at least 0.5  g m -3 to episode–average PM 2.5 % reduction in on–road mobile source contributions to PM 2.5 in the MIA

10. 2004 Models-3 Conference, October 18-21, 2004 10 Spatial impact: maximum 1-hour PM 2.5

11. 2004 Models-3 Conference, October 18-21, 2004 11 Temporal impact: domain-average PM 2.5

12. 2004 Models-3 Conference, October 18-21, 2004 12 Significantly impacted location and time  The emission standards tend to cause more significant PM 2.5 reductions in places where maximum 1–hour concentrations of PM 2.5 are high or the incremental contributions of on–road mobile sources to ambient PM 2.5 are more significant.  In general, the PM 2.5 reductions due to the emission standards also tend to be more significant at the hours when ambient PM 2.5 concentrations are high.

13. 2004 Models-3 Conference, October 18-21, 2004 13 Magnitude of the impact

14. 2004 Models-3 Conference, October 18-21, 2004 14 Other impacts Impact of emission projections from BA to FBA; Cumulative impact of emission changes from BA to ES impact on (ANH4, ANO3, ASO4), and (AORGPA, AORGA, AORGB, AORG); Of note: 1.Interconnected impact of NO x and SO x emission reductions and NH 3 emission increases; 2.Indirect impact of NO x emission reductions on the organic PM groups via O 3 increases in some areas; 3.Higher biogenic organic PM species concentrations than anthropogenic organic species due to dominant biogenic VOC emissions.

15. 2004 Models-3 Conference, October 18-21, 2004 15 Summary and discussions  The emission standards will be effective in controlling on– road mobile source contributions to ambient PM 2.5 levels;  The average impact on ambient PM 2.5 will vary noticeably with location and time: Reductions will be most evident where maximum 1–hour PM 2.5 concentrations are high or on–road mobile source contributions are significant, and when domain–average ambient PM 2.5 concentrations are high. Changes in other areas and hours are expected to be minor, and may dilute or offset the positive impact of the emission standards when averaged over the whole domain or episode;  Uncertainties in PM science and in emissions;  Regional nature of the results.

16. 2004 Models-3 Conference, October 18-21, 2004 16 Acknowledgements  The Pollution Data Branch, Pacific & Yukon Region, and the Transportation Systems Branch of Environment Canada, Vancouver Regional District (GVRD): Raw emission inventory data and assistance in modeling and processing the emission data ;  GVRD/Fraser Valley Regional District (FVRD), SENES Consulting Ltd./Air Improvement Resources Inc: Emission projection factors;  US EPA and CMAS: The original Models-3/CMAQ system;  Program of Energy Research and Development (PERD), Natural Resources Canada: Funding support.

17. 2004 Models-3 Conference, October 18-21, 2004 17