1. www.odi.org.uk/food-security-forum Facilitating debate on policy options for strengthening food security 500 stakeholders in the region, 100+ in Malawi Bunda College APRU CIPs, Theme Papers, international e- discussions, draft Synthesis Paper Deadline June 2004

2. Perspectives on changes in 1990s Interpretations Increasing vulnerability (CARE) Increasing poverty under liberalisation (National RRA) but Increasing incomes, opportunities under market liberalisation (Orr & Mwale, Orr & Orr) IndicatorsEarly 90sLate 1990s Nutrition (1) Moderate stunting, <5 yrs 49.2%49.0% Moderate underweight, <5 27.6%25.4% Economy (2) GDP/cap/constant US$ 147168 Welfare (2) Human Development Index 0.360.40 Infant Mortality, % 123103 Primary enrolment, gross % 73131 Data sources: (1) DHS, (2) WDI Why the differences?

3. Malawi indicators of food security 2 Crop production Source: FAOSTAT Highest increase in region in food production index 1990-2000 ( WDI, 2002 ) But largely non-maize Maize yields only 1/3 of potential ‘000 tonnes 1979 -81 1989- 91 1999- 01 2000200120022003 All cereals 1,3411,5602,3362,6311,7421,7102,145 Maize1,2741,4802,1902,5011,5891,5561,983

4. Malawi indicators of food security 3 Population below poverty line Source: State of Food Insecurity in the World, 2003 Local poverty line: US $ 0.41 p.p. per day (US $ 0.25 p.p. per day for 35% ultra poor) Malawi 163 out of 174 ldc’s Poverty line = 80% food  families below poverty line cannot secure minimum food needs 1997-98RuralUrban Lesotho5429 Malawi6755 Mozambique7162 Zambia8356 Zimbabwe488

5. Food security policy options Key: Time-frame for impact on food security if implemented today: Current year After minimum 1–3 years FOOD UTILISATION Food and nutrition interventions for vulnerable groups Nutrition education FOOD AVAILABILITY Business Employment Social protection Food imports Food stocks Market development (inputs, outputs, finance, land) Decentralisation Price stabilisation Agricultural diversification Education Health Food security information collection and utilization Food aid ACCESS TO FOOD

6. Market-based economic development Coordination risks can be severe in emerging markets … … the search for effective economic institutions, including –Public role in setting grades and standards, contract law, etc – and not forgetting stable and consistent macro-economic policies –Private role in forms of cooperation, contracting, interlocking markets (institutional innovation) Dorward, A (2003) `Modelling poor farm-household livelihoods in Malawi: lessons for pro-poor policy’ http://www.wye.ic.ac.uk/AgEcon/adu/research/porjects/ppag/mlhhmdrf.pdf http://www.wye.ic.ac.uk/AgEcon/adu/research/porjects/ppag/mlhhmdrf.pdf

7. Vulnerability How to reduce vulnerability? Maximising growth vs reducing risk e.g. HYV vs OPV maize in Malawi Safety nets: affordability – fiscal impacts? Safety nets a residual - important role for fiscal and monetary policy, productive Ministries Entitlement and targetting: economic vs political case More nuanced indicators of vulnerability in EWS; greater use of VAC data Farrington et al (2004) `Social Protection and Agricultural Growth’ ODI Natural Resources Perspective Paper www.odi.org.uk

8. Policy implementation External Influences political context evidence links Campaigning, lobbying Politics and policymaking Media, advertising, networking Research, learning & thinking Scientific information exchange & validation Policy analysis & research

9. Tiyeni tonse tipange kuti Malawi akhali ndi chakudya chokwanira