1. Moving people strategy: solutions to the nation’s long term (urban) transport problems Professor John Stanley Institute of Transport and Logistics Studies Faculty of Economics and Business The University of Sydney and Bus Industry Confederation October 2008.

2. Scope 1.Summarise urban person transport problems 2.Suggest a range of solutions 3.Consider delivery responsibilities 4.Some conclusions

3. 1. Urban person transport problems 1.Congestion/competitiveness 2.Climate change contribution 3.Social exclusion 4.Coping with patronage growth! 1-3 = The externalities problem!

4. 1.1 Congestion/competitiveness Economic cost of traffic congestion was $10b in 2005 (BTRE) –Doubling by 2020 –Economic waste (1% of GDP) –Austroads data suggests average speeds are declining Impacts adversely on livability and competitiveness for high growth, knowledge-intensive industries Also a problem on public transport, with rapid demand growth

5. 1.2 Climate change Land transport third largest source and second fastest growing source Road transport accounts for almost 90% Melbourne more than double London, per capita (3t cf 1.2t)

6. 1.3 Social exclusion The demand for transport (mobility) is primarily a derived demand –Derived from a desire to work, shop, meet friends, visit a doctor, etc (i.e. a desire for accessibility) Lack of transport (or poor mobility) can inhibit the capacity to undertake the activities from which D T derives Accessibility differs between locations and groups This can contribute to (or even cause) social exclusion, impacting negatively on well-being

7. Value judgment Social exclusion refers to a person’s inability to fully participate in society Proposition = dealing with specific origins of SE can increase inclusion and wellbeing Value judgment: all people have the right to a decent basic level of mobility, irrespective of personal circumstance -as a fundamental prerequisite for being able to enjoy the opportunities afforded by our society

8. Varying trip rates

9. VAMPIRE (Dodgson and Sipe)

10. 1.4 Patronage growth (% 97-07) (Source: Peter Newman)

11. 2.1 Some solutions: road congestion (1) Time to reform road pricing –Fuel charge (carbon price) to cover GHG costs plus road damage at light vehicle end –Mass-distance charge for heavier vehicles –Differential registration charges for air pollution –GPS-based congestion pricing –Abolish excise Use congestion charge revenue to substantially improve trunk PT services as alternatives –Some targeting of transport disadvantaged

12. Congestion solutions (2) Complement pricing reform with other demand management techniques (for more efficient use) –Network operating plans, HOT/HOV lanes, TravelSmart,etc Selective road capacity additions –e.g. complete ring roads; improve some arterial capacity in fast growth areas Better integrate land use and transport planning (see below)

13. 2.2 Climate change (GHG) solutions

14. Climate change solutions (2)

15. 2.3 Social exclusion Minimum public transport service levels are a key element linking transport disadvantage with social inclusion (delivering a social justice approach) –Deals with many issues of mobility related exclusion –But fare levels, physical access, etc may still be issues requiring attention Ultimately a political process to choose MSLs –Informed by involvement of target groups Rural/regional/outer metro areas most concerns

16. MSL in outer Melbourne To give most “at risk” (of TD leading to SE) people a chance to do most things at most times –Hourly service frequency within 400m Weekdays from 6.00am to 9.00pm Saturdays 6.00am to midnight Sundays 8.00am to 8.00pm –Target ~30 minutes Longer term, focus much more on urban design for walking and cycling (Smart growth, urban densification, etc)

17. Effectiveness of MSL

18. 2.4 Land use/transport integration The “linear city” as an alternative to sprawl: Curitiba

19. Melbourne example (Rob Adams) (1)

20. Melbourne example (2) Scope to cater for 2m extra people

21. 2.5 Institutional arrangements STO model The tactical level failure –Need for well-based strategic land use/transport plans Placement of the T –Departments when well functioning –Separate agency, with the $, if major change needed

22. 2.6 Melbourne Example: Future premium bus routes

23. Melbourne possible future local bus services Now Possible future

24. Role of the Commonwealth Time to get involved in urban person transport –National interest dimension of competitiveness and climate change impacts (also exclusion) NTC to prepare and manage a National Transport Policy –Through ATC Infrastructure Australia funding as a lever to drive change within this policy framework (watch scope of IA) –Long term land use/transport plans and reformed road pricing (study at first) as funding pre-conditions –Support on capital side, for completing ring roads, major rail upgrades, BRT, bus fleet upgrade (based on Guidelines), smart systems –Performance monitoring

25. 3. Conclusions States to implement integrated land use/transport plans –TOD, including linear city model to be supported, with high quality urban design, walkability, etc Prepare for road pricing reform Complete major ring roads Supportive demand management Substantially upgrade urban PT infrastructure and services (some metros, BRT, increased frequencies) NTC (through ATC) and IA as drivers of a national approach