1. The Economic Future of British Cities: What should urban policy do? Prof. Henry Overman (LSE, SERC, WWC)

2. ‘Resurgent’ cities

3. Growth (%) PlaceRegion 1991-2001 2001-2011 Great Britain 4.17.5 London 7.213.1 BirminghamW. Midlands 0.57.9 StokeW. Midlands -0.13.2 ManchesterNorth West 9.3 LiverpoolNorth West -2.11.4 NewcastleNorth East -0.24.4 SunderlandNorth East -3.5-1.3

4. Cities as places of production

5. Industry GroupAgglomeration Average all manufacturing0.077 Publishing, printing, repro of media0.105 Advertising0.137 Average all services0.197 Motion picture, video and TV0.222 Hotels and restaurants0.224 Finance and insurance0.251 Public services0.292 Business and man. consultancy0.298 Transport services0.325 Manufacture radio, TV and comms 0.382

6. CityWorking age pop %NVQ4+ (2010) Oxford53.7 Cambridge50.7 Edinburgh47.4 Brighton44.1 Aberdeen43.5 London40.9 York39.9 Cardiff39.8 Reading39.6 Dundee36.5

7. Cities as places of consumption

10. Understanding urban economic performance

12. People versus place Max/Minp90/p10 p75/p25 Raw67%26%11% Full controls 16%7%4%

14. Industry GroupAgglomeration Average all manufacturing0.077 Publishing, printing, repro of media0.105 Advertising0.137 Average all services0.197 Motion picture, video and TV0.222 Hotels and restaurants0.224 Finance and insurance0.251 Public services0.292 Business and man. consultancy0.298 Transport services0.325 Manufacture radio, TV and comms 0.382

15. The economic future

17. Industry GroupAgglomeration Average all manufacturing0.077 Publishing, printing, repro of media0.105 Advertising0.137 Average all services0.197 Motion picture, video and TV0.222 Hotels and restaurants0.224 Finance and insurance0.251 Public services0.292 Business and man. consultancy0.298 Transport services0.325 Manufacture radio, TV and comms 0.382

18. What can urban policy do?

19. Policy and area effects

20. Single Regeneration Budget Local Enterprise Growth Initiative Regional Selective Assistance Road building Employment training; Business advice; Major sports and cultural projects; Access to finance; Innovation policies Broadband; Transport (revenue and capital) Regional Growth Funds; Area based initiatives High Speed Rail

21. Policy and the cost of living

22. Cost of living: Housing

23. 0 1 2 3 4 5 GERMANY SWITZERLAND JAPAN SWEDEN FINLAND USA NORWAY FRANCE ITALY CANADA DENMARK AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND NL BELGIUM IRELAND SPAIN GB Annual average real house price growth 1970-2006

25. Costs of doing business: offices

27. 20% increase in costs of shopping

28. The move to Town Centre First

29. But do costs really matter?

32. What else could policy do?

36. Conclusions Future is bright for (some) British cities What can/should policy do in response? – ‘Productivity’ vs ‘Costs’ – Focus on specific cities … but this may widen spatial disparities Whether we should worry about this depends on impacts on people not places Not a view shared by constituency based policy makers

37. Where next?

38. High level arguments about conceptual underpinnings will continue Increased focus on policy - ‘what works?’ Picture from impact evaluation evidence is very depressing on policy effectiveness More efforts to embed impact evaluation in policy design process – ‘what works better?’ Challenging conventional wisdom but moving from upstream to downstream from policy

39. References Who you are as/more important then where you live, raw disparities overstate area effects; area disparities and area effects persistent despite intervention: – http://www.spatialeconomics.ac.uk/textonly/SERC/publica tions/download/sercdp0060.pdf http://www.spatialeconomics.ac.uk/textonly/SERC/publica tions/download/sercdp0060.pdf Evidence on ineffectiveness of mixed communities: – http://www.spatialeconomics.ac.uk/textonly/SERC/publica tions/download/sercpp002.pdf http://www.spatialeconomics.ac.uk/textonly/SERC/publica tions/download/sercpp002.pdf People trade off wages, costs of living and amenities: – http://www.spatialeconomics.ac.uk/textonly/serc/publicat ions/download/sercdp0065.pdf http://www.spatialeconomics.ac.uk/textonly/serc/publicat ions/download/sercdp0065.pdf

40. References Evaluations of LEGI, SRB, RSA and new transport schemes – coming soon – http://www.spatialeconomics.ac.uk/ http://www.spatialeconomics.ac.uk/ Impact of planning on house prices – http://www.communities.gov.uk/documents/housing/pdf/ 1767142.pdf http://www.communities.gov.uk/documents/housing/pdf/ 1767142.pdf – http://www.spatialeconomics.ac.uk/textonly/SERC/publica tions/download/sercpp004.pdf http://www.spatialeconomics.ac.uk/textonly/SERC/publica tions/download/sercpp004.pdf

41. References Impact of planning on office rents – Hilber and Cheshire, Economic Journal 2008 Impact of planning on retail productivity – http://www.spatialeconomics.ac.uk/textonly/SERC/publica tions/download/sercdp0066.pdf http://www.spatialeconomics.ac.uk/textonly/SERC/publica tions/download/sercdp0066.pdf Evidence on devolving powers and city ‘performance’ – http://www.spatialeconomics.ac.uk/textonly/SERC/publica tions/download/sercpp005.pdf

42. Disclaimer This work was part of the research programme of the independent UK Spatial Economics Research Centre funded by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC), Department for Business, Innovation and Skills, Communities and Local Government, and the Welsh Assembly Government. The support of the funders is acknowledged. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not represent the views of the funders

43. Total impact town centre first plus restrictiveness

44. Resilience

45. LFS

46. Treatment areas: London

47. Round 1–3 (5–6) projects

48. LEGI

50. Impact of LEGI on Emp 1km rings

51. RSA

52. 1988 2000

53. Roads

54. Road improvementsChanges in accessibility