1. Water Conflict: Global Issues and Cooperative Opportunities
Sandra Ruckstuhl, PhD
2010 Summer Teacher Institute
University of Chicago
29 June 2010

2. Structure of Presentation
CONF 695 Water and Conflict
Conflict Analysis and Resolution
Environmental Conflict
Water Conflict
Water and Dennis Sandole’s Three Pillar Model
Cases
Conclusion
Interrupt me

3. CONF 695: Water and Conflict
Integrate conflict theory, water concepts, and case literature
Case study approach to highlight social and environmental challenges and perspectives at different levels
Critical thinking and internal debate
Guest speakers from the field
Student presentations – on cases, on research, on policy proposals
See reading list handout

4. Conflict Analysis and Resolution Principles
Conflict studies = analysis and resolution
Interdisciplinary - social psychology, international re, development studies, cultural studies
Promotes critical thinking about social relationships, needs, aspirations and power between individuals and groups
Conflict is not necessarily bad (innovation)
Violence is a negative manifestation of conflict
Cooperation is an inherent opportunity in everything
For policy classes important to think about political economy of decision making
Geography – including political, cultural, economic
Environmental history

5. Conflict Analysis and Resolution Integrative Practice
PEACE-
BUILDING
PREVENTIVE
ACTION
PEACEMAKING

6. Conflict Analysis and Resolution Christopher Mitchell’s SPITCEROW Model
S = Sources
P = Parties
I = Issues and interests
T = Tactics
C = Changes
E = Enlargement
R = Roles
O = Outcomes
W = Winner

7. Conflict Analysis and Resolution Dennis Sandole’s Three Pillar Model
Conflict Conditions
Individual level
Societal level
International
level
Global/ecological level
PILLAR 1
Conflict Sources
Parties (violent)
Issues
Objectives
Means
Conflict-handling orientations
Conflict environment
PILLAR 3
Conflict Resolution
Prevention
Management
Settlement
Resolution
Transformation

8. Environmental Conflict What is it?
“Environmental conflict” boils down to conflict (or “disputes”) over environmental resources.
Analysis = What is the nature of these disputes?
Resolution = How can we address them?
The answer to both questions lies in an interdisciplinary approach

9. Environmental Conflict What are the “resources”?
Conflict over non-renewable (finite) resources
Minerals (diamonds, oil, coltan)
Land (property rights)
Conflict over renewable resources
Forests and timber
Air
Water

10. Environmental Conflict What are the dynamics?
Competition increases as access decreases (perception)
Changes in the quantity/quality of resource
Changes in demographics
Individual implications
Difficulty meeting basic human needs
Communal and global implications
Conflict develops within communities
Conflict develops between communities

11. Environmental Conflict What are the dynamics?
The environment (water resources included) is neither a necessary nor sufficient cause of violent conflict
Consumption means environmental degradation and increased competition and risk of conflict.
Thomas Homer-Dixon made a splash with Environment, Scarcity and Violence (2001). He warned that rapid growth in the global economy will spur ever increasing demands for natural resources. The world will consequently face growing scarcities of such vital renewable resources as cropland, fresh water, and forests. These environmental scarcities will have profound social consequences--contributing to insurrections, ethnic clashes, urban unrest, and other forms of civil violence, especially in the developing world.
After some debate over the book, THD pointed out that the effects of environmental scarcity are indirect and act in combination with other social, political, and economic stresses, and that human ingenuity can mitigate conflict.

12. Environmental Conflict What are the dynamics?
RELATIVE SCARCITY + POOR INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY = POTENTIAL CONFLICT
Supply-, demand-, structurally driven scarcity leads to conflict (Homer-Dixon 1999)
Demographic stress (environment + population) leads to state failure/exploitation (Kahl 2002)
Differential power and differential impacts of environmental degradation (Peluso and Watts 2001)
BUT if we think critically and creatively human ingenuity can overcome…
Consumption means environmental degradation and increased competition and risk of conflict.
Thomas Homer-Dixon made a splash with Environment, Scarcity and Violence (2001). He warned that rapid growth in the global economy will spur ever increasing demands for natural resources. The world will consequently face growing scarcities of such vital renewable resources as cropland, fresh water, and forests. These environmental scarcities will have profound social consequences--contributing to insurrections, ethnic clashes, urban unrest, and other forms of civil violence, especially in the developing world.
After some debate over the book, THD pointed out that the effects of environmental scarcity are indirect and act in combination with other social, political, and economic stresses, and that human ingenuity can mitigate conflict.

13. Water Conflict
But as the environment and institutions change this pattern could change too.
History demonstrates peace and cooperation in managing shared water resources.
The case of international waters -- The assumption is that there is a history of conflict (readings will imply that). Historically there has been more cooperation than conflict over transboundary waters… But the world is changing, and depending on human capapibility to adjust, social disruption could result…

14. Water Conflict
Popular coverage of and rhetoric around international “water wars”
Indirect role in intrastate, rather than interstate, violent conflict
Internal fragility associated with inequity of water scarcity problems
Problems with quality and quantity
SCARCITY IS RELATIVE. Scarcity as an economic term - meaning an item is relatively scarce and thus there is competition over it.

15. Water Conflict
Environmental change (including global warming) means more water in some areas, less water in others, and pollution worldwide
Environmental change can cause social stress and lead to conflict if institutions cannot adjust to those changes in a productive way

16. Water Conflict A source of destruction, poverty & dispute
A source of production, growth & cooperation
Drought
Flood & inundation
Landslide
Desertification
Contamination
Epidemic & disease
Dispute, even conflict
Healthy people
Healthy ecosystems
Food production
Energy production
Navigation
Cultural Value
Cooperation

17. Conflict Analysis and Resolution Dennis Sandole’s Three Pillar Model
Conflict Conditions
Individual level
Societal level
International level
Global/ecological level
PILLAR 1
Conflict Sources
Parties (violent)
Issues
Objectives
Means
Conflict-handling orientations
Conflict environment
PILLAR 3
Conflict Resolution
Prevention
Management
Settlement
Resolution
Transformation

18. Three Pillar Model Conflict Sources: Parties
There are many different users of water:
Water for people (supply and sanitation)
Water for environment (ecosystems)
Water for food (irrigation)
Water for energy (hydropower)
Water for other purposes (e.g., culture or religion)
They have different, sometimes competing needs.
Overlapping
Looking at each of these questions helps us to understand different perspectives on water disputes

19. Three Pillar Model Conflict Sources: Parties
upstream vs. downstream
urban vs. rural
rich vs. poor
haves vs. have-nots
Overlapping
Looking at each of these questions helps us to understand different perspectives on water disputes

20. Three Pillar Model Conflict Sources: Parties
Water resources (e.g., rivers, aquifers, lakes) cross different kinds of jurisdictional lines
Interstate
Intrastate

21. Three Pillar Model Conflict Sources: Issues
Relative scarcity + institutional capacity deficiencies = conflict
Ownership
Who has the right to it?
Consumption
How should it be used?
Distribution
Who has access and who does not?
Management
How should it be governed?
Overlapping
Looking at each of these questions helps us to understand different perspectives on water disputes

22. Three Pillar Model Conflict Sources: Issues
Category
Type
Renewable natural resource changes
Quality
Quantity
Temporal
Variability
Other physical changes
Demographic
Infrastructure
Relational changes
Behavioral
Parties (individuals and groups)
Institutions
Power and influence
Conflict tactics
Eco-economic changes
Value of and relationship to the resources
Overlapping
Looking at each of these questions helps us to understand different perspectives on water disputes

23. Three Pillar Model Conflict Sources: Issues

24. Three Pillar Model Conflict Sources: Issues

25. Three Pillar Model Conflict Sources: Issues
Direct/indirect control over resources = power
Control over supply (domestic and industry)
Control over food production (domestic and export)
Control over environment (drought and flood)
Control over health issues (diseases)
Control over energy production (hydropower)

26. Three Pillar Model Conflict Conditions: Individual/Societal
Water Scarcity 2025

27. Three Pillar Model Conflict Conditions: Individual/Societal

28. Three Pillar Model Conflict Conditions: Societal/International
Projected Population
Developing & Transition Countries (DTC) and OECD
Mega cities
Rapid urban growth in secondary cities & towns
Population size
Population density
Rapid rates of urbanization
Infant mortality
Youth bulge (large numbers of people between 15 and 24)
Scarcity of cropland and freshwater per capita (food security)
Dependence on natural resource exports
And more…
Still many in fragile rural areas

29. Three Pillar Model Conflict Conditions: International
More than 260 river basins with more than 2 countries…

30. Three Pillar Model Conflict Conditions: International
Tensions longstanding and growing with demand…

31. Three Pillar Model Conflict Conditions
Physical Effects of Climate Change
Increased variability, availability and access to resources
Changes in precipitation
Glacial melt
Reduced quality of land (erosion, contamination)
Increased desertification
Changes to crop seasons
Changes in biodiversity
Rising sea levels
Flooding coastal areas, including urban habitats and farmland
Disruption of aquatic habitats and fish populations
Natural disasters and extreme weather events (i.e. hurricanes, flash floods, droughts, landslides, wild fires, spread of disease and pestilence)

32. Three Pillar Model Conflict Conditions
Social Impacts of Climate Change
Loss of livelihoods
Economic shocks and instability
Food shortages and food insecurity
Human health impacts (e.g. disease)
Food insecurity
Trade relations
Migration
Political instability and state fragility
Spillover effects impacting neighboring areas
Inequitable impacts and social tensions

33. Three Pillar Model Conflict Resolution
Conflict prevention (early intervention/diplomacy)
Conflict management (security operations and peacekeeping)
Conflict settlement (coercive peacemaking)
Conflict resolution (non-coercive peacemaking)
Conflict transformation (social cohesion, resilience, capacity)

34. Three Pillar Model Conflict Resolution
Building capacity to deal with conflict:
Organizations
(e.g., policy and official administrative structures)
and
Institutions
(e.g., norms, values, perceptions, behaviors, knowledge)

35. Three Pillar Model Conflict Resolution
Environmental Peacebuilding Capitalizes on ecological interdependencies to promote social, economic, and political relationships through joint environmental management and benefit sharing Opportunities both for prevention and transformation are everywhere…

36. Cases Nile River Basin

37. Cases The Sahel Region

38. Cases Yemen

39. Cases Israel and the Palestinian Territories
Visible water politics in Israel and Palestinian territories

40. Cases The Dead Sea
1973, 1975, 1987, 2001

41. Cases Indus River Basin
Implications of one water agreement - Indus Waters Treaty allocated use and rights in certain areas

42. THANK
YOU.