1. Conflict in the Horn Introduction to the module Understanding theHorn.org © UC Regents 2013

2. Curriculum Overview © UC Regents 2013 1.Conflict patterns  Types of conflict: inter-state vs. intra-state  Regional differences: Horn of Africa vs. Sub-Saharan Africa 2.Conflict consequences  Conflict-related deaths in the Horn of Africa  Internally displaced persons & refugees in the Horn of Africa 3.Conflict sources  Violent events & ecosystems in the Horn of Africa 4.Conflict management  Local strategy: peace committees in Kenya  National strategy: Ministry of Federal Affairs in Ethiopia  Regional strategy: Intergovernmental Authority on Development

3. Conflict between countries (inter-state conflict) is a relatively rare occurrence. Example: war broke out between Ethiopia and Somalia in 1977-1978 over control of the Ogaden region that is controlled by Ethiopia Conflict within countries (intra-state conflict) remains a recurrent problem. Example: the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) fought a civil war against the national government of Ethiopia between 1975 and 1991 © UC Regents 2013 Violent conflicts in the Horn of Africa conform to broader regional patterns found across much of Sub-Saharan Africa

4. Conflicts in Sub-Saharan Africa are mainly intra-state Source: Correlates of War; Fearon and Laitin (2003)

5. Conflicts in the Horn of Africa are also mainly intra-state Source: Correlates of War; Fearon and Laitin (2003)

6. © UC Regents 2013 Source: Fearon and Laitin (2003) Civil wars have occurred in nearly half of the countries in Sub-Saharan Africa Civil war No civil war Not in sample Note: civil wars are defined as conflicts resulting in more than 1,000 battlefield deaths

7. © UC Regents 2013 Source: UCDP Sudan Ethiopia Somalia Eritrea Djibouti Kenya Insurgencies across the Horn of Africa Note: points indicate approximate geographic location of insurgencies

8. The countries of the Horn, on average, experience more violent events than countries in the rest of the continent. Unlike the rest of Sub-Saharan Africa, two civil wars in the Horn have resulted in secession – the birth of new countries. Eritrea became an independent country after separating from Ethiopia in 1993 South Sudan became an independent country after separating from Sudan in 2011 © UC Regents 2013 Conflict patterns in the Horn of Africa also differ from the rest of Sub-Saharan Africa in important ways

9. © UC Regents 2013 Source: SCAD 3.0 Countries in the Horn experience more political violence Note: political violence refers to government and anti-government violent events

10. Ethiopia Sudan Somalia Eritrea Djibouti Kenya © UC Regents 2013 Source: SCAD 3.0 Note: points indicate approximate geographic location of violent events Violent events across the Horn of Africa (1990-2011)

11. © UC Regents 2013 Source: SCAD 3.0 Countries in the Horn experience more protests Note: protests refer to organized and spontaneous demonstrations

12. © UC Regents 2013 Example: Ethiopia has more episodes of protest than Eritrea Eritrea Ethiopia There are differences in conflict patterns among the countries of the Horn of Africa Source: SCAD 3.0

13. © UC Regents 2013 Source: Arriola (2013) There are also differences in conflict patterns within countries Post-election protest No protest Example: protests in Ethiopia’s largest region, Oromia, occurred only in select districts in 2005.

14. © UC Regents 2013 Conflicts in the Horn of Africa have severe consequences: thousands of soldiers and rebels are killed annually Source: Lacina and Gleditsch (2005)

15. © UC Regents 2013 Conflicts in the Horn of Africa have severe consequences: internally displaced persons and refugees number in millions Source: USCRI/Marshall

16. Poverty Economic competition Weak governance institutions Political & social grievances Ethnic and religious differences Difficult terrain Environmental stress © UC Regents 2013 Conflicts in the Horn of Africa are associated with many of the factors related to conflicts across Sub-Saharan Africa

17. © UC Regents 2013 Source: SCAD 3.0; AAG/USGS Violent events and ecosystems some scholars argue that conflicts are sparked by environmental conditions

18. © UC Regents 2013 Persistent drought across much of the Horn of Africa affected 13 million people in 2011 and 2012 Source: UN OCHA

19. © UC Regents 2013 Source: Understanding the Horn Communal conflicts in Kenya (2000-2008) Example: conflicts between ethnic groups in Kenya appear to be concentrated in the arid parts of the country’s north. Of 239 communal violence events coded between 2000 and 2008, 50% involved cattle rustling and another 22% involved land and water access. Note: points indicate approximate location of communal conflicts within districts

20. © UC Regents 2013 A local strategy in Kenya relies on traditional forms of mediation to reconcile members of different groups Peace committees have been formed in parts of northern Kenya where government institutions are weak or absent Peace committees have been formed across northern Kenyan districts like Garissa, Isiolo, Moyale, and Wajir Community elders typically meet to discuss the sources of conflict (e.g., farmer vs. pastoralist land access), options for restitution, and means for preventing future violence Multiple strategies are pursued to manage conflict in the Horn

21. © UC Regents 2013 A national strategy in Ethiopia relies on a government organization to monitor and intervene in conflicts The Ministry of Federal Affairs was established to manage conflict resolution between ethnic groups as well as the ethnically-defined states of the country’s federal system The Ministry studies existing conflicts, makes policy recommendations for their resolution, and can deploy the Federal Police to intervene when violence erupts The Ministry has actively intervened in conflicts in the states of Afar, Benishangul-Gumuz, Gambella, and Somali Multiple strategies are pursued to manage conflict in the Horn

22. © UC Regents 2013 A regional strategy pursued by the countries of the Horn is to work jointly towards conflict management through the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) Multiple strategies are pursued to manage conflict in the Horn IGAD is a regional organization that includes Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, South Sudan, Sudan and Uganda In 2002 IGAD members established a Conflict Early Warning and Response Mechanism (CEWARN) to issue reports on incidents of conflict, especially among pastoralist communities

23. Further explorations Explore existing data sources  Examine how they define and code episodes of conflict  Compare how different data sources code the same conflicts Explore different types of conflict  Example: pastoralists conflicts in Ethiopia  Example: communal conflicts in Kenya Explore different strategies of conflict management  Example: peace councils in southern Ethiopia  Example: African Union’s Peace and Security Department For More, See http://understandingthehorn.org/ http://understandingthehorn.org/ © UC Regents 2013

24. Further explorations Data sources on conflict  Social Conflict in Africa Database (SCAD) <http://www.strausscenter.org/scad.html  Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) http://www.pcr.uu.se/research/UCDP/  Armed Conflict Location & Event Dataset http://www.acleddata.com/ Reports on conflict-related events and trends  Conflict Early Warning and Response Mechanism (CEWARN) http://www.cewarn.org/  Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) http://www.fews.net/east  Reliefweb http://reliefweb.int/disaster/dr-2011-000029-ken © UC Regents 2013

25. CREDITS Understanding the Horn of Africa © UC Regents 2013

26. Understanding the Horn of Africa An online curriculum project of the Center for African Studies, University of California, BerkeleyCenter for African Studies This material was developed under a Title VI International Research and Studies grant from the U.S. Department of Education. However, the content does not necessarily represent the policy or views of the U.S. Department of Education, or imply endorsement by the Federal Government.International Research and Studies Principal Investigator: Leonardo Arriola Project Coordinator: Martha Saavedra Project Assistant: Tami Driver, Web Development: Kim Carl and Howie Lan Web Designer and Graphics: Casondra Sobieralski http://understandingthehorn.org/ © UC Regents 2013