1. The Theory of Demographic Transition
CGW4U
Unit 2: The Human Population

2. Concept
How the population changes as countries develop

3. Facts Family size is decreasing all over the world
In 60 countries, fertility rate has fallen below replacement rate
Canada: fertility rate 1.6 in 2007

4. Stage 1: Pre-transition
Wide base rapidly narrowing reflects high birthrate and high infant mortality
Number of people in each age group less than previous
High death rates in every age group
Sweden 1750: life expectancy 35
Erratic food supplies
Disease (small pox, whooping cough, measles swept population
Most children died before adulthood
Couple have 10+ kids to ensure one to take care of them
Daughters would marry and care for in laws

5. Stage 2: Early Transition
No country in world currently in pre-transition stage, all progressed at least to early transition
Dramatic drop occurs in death rate “death control”
Birth rate remains high
Beginning of population explosion
Children needed to help raise food and ensure caregiver for aging parents
Religious teachings restricted use of birth control
Declining death rate: water purification, sanitation, disease control, medical advances (vaccines) now
Acceptance of germ theory (then 19th C) – physicians noticed less dying mothers 19/20 with proper hygiene and waste disposal

6. Stage 3: Late Transition
Characterized by birth control
Birth rate drops and approaches death rate
Population growth slows
Number of people in each age group is similar
Women continued to have children, 8 surviving instead of 2
Eldest son inherited properties, younger had to find other ways to support selves, moving to new areas to farm, moving to cities, Industrial revolution
Migration
Not technological birth control- couples desire for children declined
Families living in cities – large families more expensive
Women working outside of the home – can’t look after children, more income, more afluent families,

7. Stage 4: Post Transition
Birth rate has declined to point where it reaches death rate
Birth rate and death rate are low
Population stabilizes
Urbanized, small families
Many post transitional countries, fertility rate well below replacement rate
Taiwan:

8. Stage 5?
Stage in which fertility rate declines below replacement rate?