1. Price Outlook, 2015 and Beyond 2015 GREAT LAKES PROFESSIONAL CATTLE FEEDING AND MARKETING SHORTCOURSE East Lansing, MI Bowling Green, OH Wyoming, ON Jim Hilker Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics Department Michigan State University February 10, 11, 12, 2015

4. Topics: Cattle Price Drivers and … Beef Demand –Domestic –Foreign Markets and Competition Some Feedstuffs Comments Poultry and Pork Production More on Cattle Markets –Review Price Levels –U.S. Cattle Inventory –Cost and Return Prospects –Price Outlook Summary: The Economic Environment USDA Data Sources – NASS, AMS, FAS, and ERS Most Forecasts – LMIC

5. US Consumer Demand and Consumption (Disappearance)

6. Data Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

7. Data Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Livestock Marketing Information Center 2009 Dollars Calculated

8. Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

9. Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Forecasts by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

10. Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, USDA-ERS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

11. Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, USDA-ERS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

12. International Perspective

13. Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

14. Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS Livestock Marketing Information Center

15. Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

16. Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS Livestock Marketing Information Center

17. Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS Livestock Marketing Information Center

18. U.S. Meat Trade Million Pounds February 10, 2015

19. Feedstuffs -- Corn

21. Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

22. Data Source: USDA-AMS Livestock Marketing Information Center

23. Data Source: USDA-AMS Livestock Marketing Information Center

24. Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Forecasts by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

25. Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Forecasts by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

27. Poultry and Pork

28. Data Source: USDA-AMS Livestock Marketing Information Center

29. Data Source: USDA-AMS Livestock Marketing Information Center

30. Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

31. Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS Livestock Marketing Information Center

32. Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

35. Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

36. Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS Livestock Marketing Information Center

37. Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

38. Cattle

39. Data Source: USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center

40. Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled and Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

41. Data Source: USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center

42. Data Source: USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center

43. Data Source: USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center

44. Data Source: USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center

45. Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center

46. Data Source: CanFax Livestock Marketing Information Center

47. Data Source: CanFax Livestock Marketing Information Center

48. Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center

49. Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

50. Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

51. Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

52. Data Source: USDA-AMS Livestock Marketing Information Center

53. Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled and Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

54. Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

55. Data Source: USDA-AMS Livestock Marketing Information Center

56. Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center

57. Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center

60. Data Source: USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center

61. Data Source: USDA-AMS, NASS, Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

62. Data Source: USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center

69. Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

70. Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center

71. Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled and Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

72. Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled and Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

73. Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled and Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

75. U.S. Meat Production and Prices February 10, 2015

76. August Cattle Futures 2-9-15

77. Economic Environment … Domestic Consumer Meat Demand Strong, Foreign Demand ???? Chicken and Pork Output Ramping-Up Summer of 2014: Cyclical Turn-up in U.S. Cattle Numbers Began Feedstuffs ???? Annual Cattle Price Peak: 2014, 2015, or 2016? Cattle -- Slow Herd Expansion, Prices Erode Not Collapse Expect More Normal Price Seasonality Producer Profitability in 2015 Compared to 2014: Very Profitable (Slight Slip): Cow-calf; Breeding Stock Providers Profitable, Small Year-Over-Year Increase: Lamb Profitable, But Well Less: Hogs, Chicken, and Dairy. Likely Not Profitable Up To Breakeven: Cattle Feeding (after best year since 2003 in 2014), and Stockers (????).

78. Jim Hilker’s Web Page http://firm.msue.msu.edu/ Market Outlook & Probabilistic Price Forecasts for Grain & Livestock or http://www.msu.edu/user/hilker/ Thanks Questions/Discussion