1. Motor Carrier Industry Overview April 2007 Tavio Headley Economist American Trucking Associations

2. Source: ATA ATA’s For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index 2000=100 ; Through February 2007

3. Source: ATA ATA’s For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index Year-over-year Percent Change; Through February 2007

4. Sources: ATA’s Trucking Activity Report & Monthly Truck Tonnage Report For-Hire Trucking Volumes 2006 percent change

5. Source: ATA ATA’s Flatbed Freight Loads Index Year-over-year Percent Change; Through February 2007

6. Sources: ATA’s Trucking Activity Report & AAR 2007 Started Poorly Year-to-date percent change through February

7. Source: ATA ATA’s For-Hire Truck Revenue Index 2000=100 ; Through February 2007 Costs: Engines Drivers Congestion

8. Source: ATA ATA’s For-Hire Truck Revenue Index Year-over-year Percent Change; Through February 2007

9. Source: ATA Real Revenue per Mile 1980=100 In 2006, real revenue per mile was still 30 percent lower than in 1980.

10. Source: U.S. Freight Transportation Forecast to…2017 Billions of Tons +31% +72%+79% +29% +21% +27% Total Percent Increase 2005 to 2017 Projected Growth in Freight Transportation Tonnage: 2005 to 2017

11. Sources: U.S. Freight Transportation Forecast to…2017 & ATA Growth in the Commercial Truck Population Total Increase from 2005 to 2017; Millions of Trucks +40% +32%

12. Trucking Capacity

13. Source: ATA’s Trucking Activity Report Growth in TL Fleet vs. Demand 2006 Increase

14. Sources: WardsAuto.com and ATA U.S. Class 8 Truck Sales ?

15. Capacity Conclusions Capacity likely to tighten throughout the year Capacity likely to tighten throughout the year Fundamentals still support tighter capacity (driver shortage) Fundamentals still support tighter capacity (driver shortage) 2007 Class 8 truck sales are expected to be significantly lower than 2006 2007 Class 8 truck sales are expected to be significantly lower than 2006

16. Drivers… The shortage continues and it is the #1 constraint to increasing capacity

17. Today’s Driver Shortage: Long-haul Truckload Drivers Source: Global Insight, Inc. for ATA

18. Source: ATA’s Trucking Activity Report Line-Haul Driver Turnover Rates

19. Source: ATA’s Trucking Activity Report TL Average Miles per Load 2006 percent change

20. Highway Congestion 1998 All Vehicles

21. Highway Congestion 2020 All Vehicles

22. Freight Corridors & Top 200 Bottlenecks: Cost to the Trucking Industry 243 Million Hours Lost Annually Cost $7.8 Billion/year Physical bottlenecks account for 40% of congestion Source: FHWA

23. Truckload Productivity: Index of Miles per Truck per Month: 2000 = 100 Trucking productivity is slipping due to: Congestion Driver Home Time Falling Average Length of Haul Hours of Service Rule Changes Source: ATA

24. Fuel Prices

25. Sources: Department of Energy & ATA Today: ≈ $2.84/gallon National On-Highway Average Diesel Fuel Price ($/Gallon)

26. Source: U.S. Department of Energy Diesel Prices Price per Gallon Forecasts

27. Source: ATA Trucking’s Annual Cost for Diesel (Billions of US$) Forecast

28. Sources: A.G. Edwards & ATA Trucking Failures vs. the Price of Diesel Fuel Failures only includes fleets with at least five trucks

29. 2007 Economic Outlook

30. Sources: BEA & ATA Real Gross Domestic Product Percent change from a year earlier Forecasts

31. Sources: ATA Goods Producing Economy percent change from a year earlier Forecasts

32. Sources: BEA & ATA Residential Investment Percent change from a year earlier Forecasts

33. Inventory Trends Total Supply Chain Source: Census Bureau Inventory-to-Sales Ratio

34. Thanks!theadley@trucking.org