1. Hands-on practice: developing GDP per capita and total population projections for your country in the 21 st Century

2. Expected outputs: 1.Country-level projections of GDP per capita and population derived from SRES storylines;

3. SRES storylines 199020002010202020302040205020602070208020902100 A1 A2 B1 B2 Population projections SRES storylines 199020002010202020302040205020602070208020902100 A1 A2 B1 B2 GDP projections

4. Expected outputs: 1.Country-level projections of GDP and population derived from SRES storylines; 2.Preliminary analysis on the range of projections under different SRES storylines, and on the consistency of the projected trends with relation to current trends; 3.Selected presentations (two volunteers required! ) to share with the group: The projections; Insights on the credibility of such projections; and Comments on the process of downscaling SRES storylines to country-level socio-economic projections

5. Data to work with: 1.Projections of GDP growth and population change (both in percentage terms) for Asia derived from the four SRES storylines; 2.World Bank country-level population in 1990; 3.World Bank country-level growth rate of GDP during 1990~2003; 4.World Bank country-level GDP in current US$ for 2003; 5.The equation below can be used to calculate the GDP or population for a given decade following a particular SRES storyline:

6. Time lines: 1.Projections – 20 minutes; 2.Analysis – 20 minutes; 3.Presentations and discussions – 20 minutes