1. Integrating and Evaluating Multiple PSN Strategies in Chicago Trace Meares Andrew Papachristos University of Chicago Jeffrey Fagan Columbia University

2. The Northern District of Illinois Taskforce included: Taskforce included: Chicago Police Department Chicago Police Department ATF ATF US Attorney’s Office US Attorney’s Office Cook County State’s Attorney’s Office Cook County State’s Attorney’s Office Illinois Department of Corrections Illinois Department of Corrections Cook County Probation Cook County Probation City Officials City Officials Multiple Community Organizations/Actors Multiple Community Organizations/Actors Research Partners (University of Chicago and Columbia University) Research Partners (University of Chicago and Columbia University)

3. The Problem Homicides: Guns and Gangs on the West-Side

4. Goal 1a – Reduce Gun Homicides Annual Homicide Counts in Chicago, 1990 to 2004 400 500 600 700 800 900 Total Number of Homicides 1990199520002005 Year PSN Begins

5. Gangs, Guns, and Drugs Total and Gang Homicides, 1990 to 2004 0 200 400 600 800 1000 Total Number of Homicides 1990199520002005 Year All Homicides Gang Homicides

6. Goal 1b: Going after the guns and gun offenders Moran’s I =.378, p =.001 Control Beats PSN Beats Guns and Homicides are not randomly distributed Guns and Homicides are not randomly distributed Treatment: Treatment: 24 beats on West Side 24 beats on West Side Control: Control: 30 beats on South side 30 beats on South side ATF Gun Seizures 0 - 15 16 - 31 32 - 48 49 - 67 68 - 117

7. Crime Indicators City (All Beats) (N = 281) Control Beats (N = 30) PSN Beats (N = 24) 2002 Homicide Rate 22.3 (648) 49.6 (102) 75.5 (115) 2002 Gang-Related Homicide Rate 4.5 (133) 7.8 (16) 13.8 (21) 2002 Aggravated Assault & Aggravated Battery 862.2 (25005) 1851.9 (3812) 2005.4 (3053) 2002 Average ATF Gun Seizure Rate 215.6 (6252) 438.2 (902) 620.8 (945)

8. PSN Strategies Ex-Offenders, Gun Teams, and Prosecutions

9. PSN Chicago - Program Design Total Population Ex-Offender Population Crime Arrest State Court Federal Court Disposition General Model of Offending and Criminal Justice System PSN Programs and Initiatives Multi-Agency Gun Teams and Task Forces Case Review of all gun cases by local and federal prosecutors. Decision at which level to prosecute. Case Review of all gun cases by local and federal prosecutors. Decision at which level to prosecute. Offender Notification Letters Offender Notification Meetings Community, Media, & School Programs

10. PSN Interventions 1. Increased Federal Gun Prosecutions Deterrence Deterrence 2. Increased Federal Prison Sentences Incapacitation Incapacitation 3. Increased Firearms Policing Supply-side strategies Supply-side strategies 4. Offender Notification Meetings Deterrence Deterrence Normative change Normative change

11. Evaluation Quasi-Experimental Design

12. Research Design Quasi-Experimental Panel Design Quasi-Experimental Panel Design Use Near-Equivalent Control Group Use Near-Equivalent Control Group Panel data of every “neighborhood” in Chicago from 1999 to 2004 Panel data of every “neighborhood” in Chicago from 1999 to 2004 Multi-level modeling strategy to assess within and between group variation Multi-level modeling strategy to assess within and between group variation Data Data Multiple sources – CPD, ATF, IDOC, and the Census Multiple sources – CPD, ATF, IDOC, and the Census Geocoded to police beat – (~ to “neighborhoods”). Geocoded to police beat – (~ to “neighborhoods”). Quarterly from January 1999 to December 2004 Quarterly from January 1999 to December 2004

13. Variables Dependent Variables / Outcome Measures: Dependent Variables / Outcome Measures: Homicide Rate (logged) Homicide Rate (logged) Gun Homicide Rate (logged) Gun Homicide Rate (logged) Gang-Related Homicide Rate (logged) Gang-Related Homicide Rate (logged) Aggravated Assault and Battery Arrest Rate (logged) Aggravated Assault and Battery Arrest Rate (logged) Neighborhood Social Indicators: Neighborhood Social Indicators: Deprivation Deprivation Concentrated Immigration Concentrated Immigration Residential Stability Residential Stability Spatial Lag of beat-level Homicides (Moran’s I) Spatial Lag of beat-level Homicides (Moran’s I)

14. PSN Treatment Variables 1. Offender Notification Meetings – percent of offenders in beat who have attended a meeting 2. Federal Prosecutions – number of prosecution in beat (logged) 3. Federal Prison Sentences – person-month sentences (logged) 4. ATF Gun Seizures – number of guns seized by beat (logged) 5. Index of Components – additive score of where each beat falls on quintiles of other predictors (ranges from zero to 20).

15. Annual Homicide Rates, 1991 to 2004 PSN Group Control Group Other areas of City PSN Begins 20 40 60 80 100 Homicide Rate per 100,000 1990199520002005 year

16. Change in Neighborhood Homicide Rates, Before and After Start of PSN PSNNeighborhoodsControlNeighborhoods -10 -5 0 5 10 mean of change

17. Change in Monthly Homicide Rates in PSN Area 1st Parolee Forum 1st PSN Prosecution 0 2 4 6 8 10 Homicide Rate per 100,000 01 Jan 0001 Jul 0101 Jan 0301 Jul 0401 Jan 06

18. Figure 3. Change in Quarterly Homicide Rates by Assignment Groups 1st Parolee Forum PSN Group Control Group Rest of City 1 2 3 4 5 6 Homicide Rate per 100,000 01 Jan 0001 Jul 0101 Jan 0301 Jul 0401 Jan 06

19. Summary of Findings Find negative effect on Homicides for: Find negative effect on Homicides for: Forums – largest effect. Forums – largest effect. Prosecutions Prosecutions ATF Seizures ATF Seizures Additive Index Additive Index No significant effect of: No significant effect of: Sentence Length on Homicides Sentence Length on Homicides Any predictor on Agg. Battery and Agg Asslt. Any predictor on Agg. Battery and Agg Asslt.

20. Summary of PSN “Treatment” Effects on Quarterly Neighborhood Homicide Rates -40.1 -2.2 -2.7 -0.8 -11 -45 -40 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 Control Variables Forums Gun Recoveries Prosecutions Sentence Length Combined Effect **N.B.: Random Effects Poisson Regression Percentage decrease in Log(Homicide Rate) associated with a one-unit increase in PSN “treatment”

21. Conclusions The observed drop in homicide is larger in the treatment vs. control area (35 percent). The observed drop in homicide is larger in the treatment vs. control area (35 percent). Find a significant negative relationship between various PSN interventions and homicide Find a significant negative relationship between various PSN interventions and homicide Forums appear to be having the largest effect, but there is a clear additive effect. Forums appear to be having the largest effect, but there is a clear additive effect.

22. This paper can be found at... Social Science Research Network: Social Science Research Network: www.ssrn.com www.ssrn.com www.ssrn.com

23. Direction Individual Level data: Individual Level data: Recidivism of those who attend the forum as compared to non-attendees? Recidivism of those who attend the forum as compared to non-attendees? The Chicago Gun Project The Chicago Gun Project Offender perceptions of legitimacy/legal authority? Offender perceptions of legitimacy/legal authority? The role of social networks in: The role of social networks in: Gun markets Gun markets Patterns of Offending Patterns of Offending Nexus between community and offender capital Nexus between community and offender capital