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State of the Industry Presentation Andres Lopez April 2015
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Macro-economic overview Packaging market performance Glass segment performance Industry challenges Alternative packaging Disruptive technologies, innovations and trends Agenda
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2015 = The year of the consumer Economic Tailwinds & Headwinds for Glass Headwinds Normalization of U.S. interest rates U.S. Dollar appreciation Weak global economy (outside U.S.) Geopolitical risks Tailwinds Lower gasoline/energy costs Employment growth Housing price recovery Consumer confidence in broad-based recovery Economic recovery could prove to be tailwind for glass demand if positive momentum continues
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On a consumption basis, glass share remains steady (U.S. decline offset by import growth) Packaging Market Overview Packaging Type ShareShare Change 201120142011-2014 Flexible Packaging (total)29.729.4 -0.3 Stand-Up Pouches1.92.2 0.3 Metal21.420.6 -0.8 Liquid Cartons12.912.5 -0.4 Glass8.0 0.0 Rigid Plastic28.329.8 1.5 Rigid plastic and pouches benefiting from consumer trends toward healthy options and convenience
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Glass segment shipments continue steady decline U.S. Glass Segment Shipments (Historical)
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Empty and filled imported glass containers now account for one third of glass volume in U.S. Glass Segment Volume Share kT2014CAGR 2011-14 Domestic6,900-1% Unfilled Imports 1,100+5% Filled Imports 2,200+1% Total glass segment 10,200-0.1% Source: GPI as reported: domestic shipments, U.S. census for unfilled imports, trade association and industry sources for filled imports. Note filled imports includes beer, wines and spirits only
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Glass losing share to cans: major beer using cans to drive growth; Craft embracing cans for new usage occasions; specialty beer cans Domestic Beer Glass versus Metal Share
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Industry Challenges
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Alternative Packaging – Disruptive Technologies Next Generation Pouches Rigid plastic: technological advances; UV protection specialty liquid cartons Evercan: 90-100% recycled cans
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Industry Challenges – New Consumption Experiences Wine kegs: New on- premise consumption experience Mass customization K-Cups: new home consumption experience
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“Specialty” cans now firmly in the mainstream Suppliers developing selling story to customers/consumers Evercan: the next specialty can? Evolution of Metal Beverage Cans 1960: 12oz bev. can 1970’s: pop tab closure 2013/14: Specialty proliferation, reclosability, & print / decoration capability improvement 2013/14: Specialty proliferation, reclosability, & print / decoration capability improvement What’s Next: Sustainability Leveraging print capabilities & functional benefits What’s Next: Sustainability Leveraging print capabilities & functional benefits 2004: Specialty metal can and bottle launched
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Pouch suppliers further driving sustainability selling story Increased functionality / usability Next Generation Pouches Elementary Pouch Premium / Functional Pouch Next Generation: Recyclable/ re-closable Pouch (e.g. ecolean) Next Generation: Recyclable/ re-closable Pouch (e.g. ecolean)
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Technology advancements allow new end use categories UV blockers Shaping technologies Thermal stability (hot fill) PET manufacturing flexibility Liquiform technology PET – UV protection technology for beer
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Aseptic cartons developing “specialty” packaging to target premium segments TetraPak (USA), IPI (Germany) driving category innovation Liquid cartons – specialty and slim line cartons Traditional Basic Aseptic Fill Carton Traditional Basic Aseptic Fill Carton Experimentation Category diversification, shaping development Experimentation Category diversification, shaping development Specialty Development: Specialty packaging development via shaping, decoration, closure Specialty Development: Specialty packaging development via shaping, decoration, closure
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“In 2014, Free Flow shipped 160,000 nine-liter case equivalents in kegs. The company has doubled its sales volume in each of the past three years, and it expects similar growth this year.” - Shanken News Daily 01/27/2015 Wine bar/ Wine Kegs
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The Keurig® KOLD™ Drinkmaker is a revolutionary new way to make your favorite cold drinks at home. Imagine…sodas and sports drinks along with iced teas, craft sodas, flavored seltzers and waters. All made fresh by you, at the push of a button. - Keurig website Disruptive Technologies: Keurig® KOLD™ Potential threat to single serve glass packaging
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Supermarkets are already testing to 3D print customized cakes, restaurants are offering printed desserts. Some even claim that there will be a 3D food printer in every home in just two years. One thing is certain: this rapidly developing market has huge potential. -3D Food Printing Conference Disruptive Technologies: 3D Food Printing Potential to reduce process/packaged food demand
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Thank You
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Unemployment rate projected to decline driving growth in disposable income and consumption expenditures Consumption expenditures projected to average +3% in 2015 and 2016 versus +2% in prior years Economy- Unemployment
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Consumers feeling confident as household net worth and housing prices recovers, positive for consumption expenditures going forward Economy- Household Net Worth
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Glass Segment End Use Category Volume Share
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Packaging Market close to 600 MM units, sequential improvement in growth rates Rigid plastic gaining share at expense of other packaging types Key end use category shares relatively unchanged Packaging Market- Glass Share
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Packaging Market Overview (PM) in 2014 Share (∆ v 2011) 2014 vs PY CAGR (3 year) CAGR (5 year) Key DriversO-I implications Total Packaging Market NA0.1%0.3%0.0% Growth in rigid plastic offset by declines in other packaging types Glass share steady at 8, keeping pace with packaging market growth Glass benefiting from growth in high end alcoholic beverages and premium NAB/food Opportunity to grow organically and by attracting existing non-O-I business Organic growth opportunities in craft, wines and spirits, and premium/private label food and NAB Flexible Packaging 29.4 (-0.3) -0.0%-0.4% Growth in food (convenience meals/frozen foods, baby foods), alcoholic drinks, & pet food offsetting decline in tobacco, beauty/personal care, & juices Pouches threat to O-I in baby food and sauces, wine, RTD, categories traditionally friendly to glass; advances in pouch technology Metal 20.6 (-0.8) -0.2%-1.2%-1.0% Growth in energy drinks & RTDs unable to offset conversion in carbonated soft drinks and food (canned soup, fruit, and sauces) Excess can capacity driving can competitors to target craft and mainstream beer (screw top cans) for growth Paper Container/ Liquid Cartons 12.5 (-0.4) -0.1%-1.0%-0.9% Fruit juices, tobacco and personal care drove decline, offsetting increase in hot coffee drinks Tobacco and fruit juices driving decline Glass 8.0 (0.0) 0.0% Share stabilization Consumption growth driven by high end alcoholic beverages (ciders, craft beer, wines & spirits) and NAB (RTD Tea & premium soft drinks) Offset conversion in mainstream beer (cans), NABs (bottled water, juices), & foods Leverage pockets of growth in high end Attract existing non-O-I business (ABI, Diageo, Gallo) Import substitution (Safeway, etc.) Rigid Plastic 29.8 (+1.5) 0.4%1.8%1.7% NABs (bottled water and RTD tea conversion & category growth) & yogurt drove growth Advances in PET hot fill technology threat to O-I in sauces, salsa and pickles, categories traditionally friendly to glass
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