1. Filnamn Generic Representation of Military Organization and Military Behavior: UML and Bayesian Networks Robert Suzic Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI) robert.suzic@foi.se rsu@nada.kth.se

2. Filnamn Background Why generic modeling and why is it important? The use of generic models is motivated in command and control, and is increasing, due to issues of co-ordination, co-operation, training, decision support etc. The advantage of this modeling approach is that the same generic model can be re-used for different purposes. As the result we get models that are compatible, easy to model and reuse.

3. Filnamn Background Why modeling military organization and behavior ? To be able to model systems for C2 we have to evaluate and find appropriate methodology/ies for modeling and representation of our knowledge about military organisations and military behaviour.

4. Filnamn Purpose of this study Examine the promises of a new modeling approach that combines the class-diagram of Unified Modeling Language and Bayesian Networks representation when modeling military behavior and organization in a generic manner. Highlight segments where these two methodologies should complement each other Demonstrate by example that these two methodologies need to be further developed

5. Filnamn Unified Modeling Language (UML) Model of a company (organizational model)

6. Filnamn Planning, Doctrine and Environment

7. Filnamn Source: [Murphy, BN Toolbox, 2002] Bayesian Networks Cloudy (C) Sprinkler (S) Rain (R) Wet Grass (W) P (Cloudy = False) P( Cloudy = True) 0.5 0.5 C F T P(S=F) P(S=T) 0.5 0.9 0.1 C F T 0.8 0.2 0.2 0.8 P(R=F) P(R=T) S F T 1.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 P(W=F) P(W=T) T T T F F F 0.1 0.9 0.01 0.99 R

8. Filnamn Company Model: Bayesian Networks Company policy Company Formation Discovered ? Platoon one policy Tank one policy Tank two policy Tank three policy Platoon Formation Observed Platoon Formation Platoon model...

9. Filnamn Simulation Results Link to results.exe

10. Filnamn Conclusions 1(2) During the study of military organisation and military behaviour modelling we came to new modelling insights: UML class-diagrams need additional notation to express uncertainty BN should have better expressive power for modeling complex systems while relatively computational tractably UML is well-suited for modeling military organisations that are well-known We suggest BN as a method of designing military behaviour and less-known military organisations. On the other hand the BN lack ability to be an effective modelling approach when modelling large networks.

11. Filnamn Conclusions 2(2) Generic modelling of military organizations and military behaviour would gain by using a modelling approach that combine UML class diagram representation and BN in cases where uncertainty is involved. The disadvantage of the BN methodology is that it represents the structure and class relations with low expressive power especially when comparing to UML class-diagrams. robert.suzic@foi.se rsu@nada.kth.se