1. Residential Lighting Ryan Firestone Regional Technical Forum June 16, 2015

2. Overview RTF Residential UES measure is due for an update – Sunset date June 30, 2015 – New ENERGY STAR specification v1.1. (September, 2014) – technology neutral – Changing market / new market data (NEEA/BPA) – Estimates of extent and impact of Commercial participants in retail programs (SBW/PSE/NorthWestern Energy) – Interpretation of current practice baseline in light of very different product lifetimes and an impending federal standard – RTF judgement and confirmation required on many details of analysis – Requesting a sunset date extension to September, 2015 Allows time for Bonneville to complete market analysis and Staff/CAT to incorporate in measure update Structure of Bonneville analysis is dependent on today’s RTF judgement/confirmation 2

3. Presentation Outline Today’s Objectives: Get RTF guidance on methodology and data source selection Extend sunset date Outline: Sunset Date Extension Current Practice Baseline – How replacements implicit in the baseline during the lifetime of the measure are modeled Non-residential Participants in Retail Programs – How to account for this in the baseline – Uncertainty = Planning measure? Measure Identifiers – Lumen bin definitions ProCost/Measure Workbook Modeling – Modeling savings that vary over the lifetime of the measure Residential Hours of Use – What data source to use? LED Cost and Performance – Extrapolate data to time of measure implementation? 3

4. Sunset Date Extension 4

5. Current sunset date June 30, 2015 Numerous points of judgement required in analysis; Staff/CAT would like RTF input before proceeding with analysis Bonneville has shelf/sales data – needs some guidance from RTF to structure analysis so that it feeds into measure assessment 7 th Plan could use updated savings numbers in final plan if available in September Propose extending sunset date to September 30, 2015 with plan to bring measure update to RTF in August. 5

6. Decision “I, __________, move to extend the sunset dates for the following UES measures to September 30, 2015: Residential Lighting – LEDs Residential Lighting – CFLs Residential Lighting – Specialty CFLs” 6

7. Current Practice Baseline 7 Key Questions: What should be assumed for replacements required in the baseline after the time of the measure installation? Should EISA 2020 be factored into the replacement model? What replaces incandescent/halogen in the baseline for EISA-covered categories in 2020 and onward? Do sales need to be normalized by lamp life to estimate the baseline? What baseline should be used for for post-delivery replacements the Direct Install delivery mechanism?

8. Current Practice Baseline Model Interpretation of the Current Practice Baseline is required because of the range of lifetimes of light bulbs: – Incandescent/halogen – 1,000 hours – CFLs (derated for switching) – ~5,000 hours – LEDs – 25,000 – 30,000 hours (capped at 12 years for RTF measures) A portion of the Current Practice baseline has a much shorter lifetime than the efficient product – What happens to the incandescent/halogen (and CFL) lamps in the baseline at the end of their lifetime? 8 Current Sales Efficient Case ? ? Complicated further by EISA 2020 federal standard (45 lumen/Watt) – Unlikely to be compliant incandescent/halogen products

9. Current Practice Baseline - Guidelines 9 Roadmap Section 1.3.2, Introduction >> Key Concepts >> Savings “Savings is defined as the difference in annual energy use between the baseline (see section 3.2) and post (after measure delivery) periods, which is caused by the delivery of a measure…The current practice baseline defines directly the conditions that would prevail in the absence of the program (the counterfactual), as dictated by codes and standards or the current practices of the market.” Section 3.2.1 Measure Specification >> Savings Baseline >> Current Practice “For these measures, the baseline is defined by the typical choices of eligible end users in purchasing new equipment and services at the time of RTF approval. The RTF estimates this baseline based on recent choices of eligible end users in purchasing new equipment and services.” Section 1.3.3., Introduction >> Key Concepts >> Lifetime Savings “Savings may vary over the lifetime (see Lifetime guideline) of a measure. For measures with a current practice baseline the savings estimate should apply throughout the period between measure delivery and the end of the measure lifetime.”

10. Current Practice Baseline – Guidelines Applied to a typical appliance measure (Clothes Washers) 10 Roadmap Section 1.3.2, Introduction >> Key Concepts >> Savings “Savings is defined as the difference in annual energy use between the baseline (see section 3.2) and post (after measure delivery) periods, which is caused by the delivery of a measure…The current practice baseline defines directly the conditions that would prevail in the absence of the program (the counterfactual), as dictated by codes and standards or the current practices of the market.” Section 3.2.1 Measure Specification >> Savings Baseline >> Current Practice “For these measures, the baseline is defined by the typical choices of eligible end users in purchasing new equipment and services at the time of RTF approval. The RTF estimates this baseline based on recent choices of eligible end users in purchasing new equipment and services.” Section 1.3.3., Introduction >> Key Concepts >> Lifetime Savings “Savings may vary over the lifetime (see Lifetime guideline) of a measure. For measures with a current practice baseline the savings estimate should apply throughout the period between measure delivery and the end of the measure lifetime.” Counterfactual Baseline: Consumer purchases and installs a clothes washer in 2015 It lasts for 15 years Efficient Case: Consumer purchases and installs an efficient clothes washer in 2015 It lasts for 15 years For the lifetime of the measure (15 years): Baseline clothes washer remains the same Efficient case clothes washer remains the same Savings is the difference in energy consumption between the two purchases Baseline: Market average efficiency of recent sales

11. Current Practice Baseline Model – Clothes Washer 11 The only decision that needs to be modelled for baseline for this measure is what clothes washer gets installed at the time of the efficient case install.

12. Current Practice Baseline – Guidelines Applied to Residential Lighting 12 Roadmap Section 1.3.2, Introduction >> Key Concepts >> Savings “Savings is defined as the difference in annual energy use between the baseline (see section 3.2) and post (after measure delivery) periods, which is caused by the delivery of a measure…The current practice baseline defines directly the conditions that would prevail in the absence of the program (the counterfactual), as dictated by codes and standards or the current practices of the market.” Section 3.2.1 Measure Specification >> Savings Baseline >> Current Practice “For these measures, the baseline is defined by the typical choices of eligible end users in purchasing new equipment and services at the time of RTF approval. The RTF estimates this baseline based on recent choices of eligible end users in purchasing new equipment and services.” Section 1.3.3., Introduction >> Key Concepts >> Lifetime Savings “Savings may vary over the lifetime (see Lifetime guideline) of a measure. For measures with a current practice baseline the savings estimate should apply throughout the period between measure delivery and the end of the measure lifetime.” Counterfactual Baseline: Consumer purchases and installs a mix of inc/hal/CFL/LED They last for 1 to 12 years Then what? From 2020 onward, EISA 2020 standard limits some options (inc/hal) Efficient Case: Consumer purchases and installs a CFL or LED It lasts for 5 to 12 years. For the lifetime of the measure (5 to 12 years): It’s OK for savings to vary over the lifetime of the measure. Baseline: Unclear what this means for choices made throughout the lifetime of the measure.

13. Current Practice Baseline – Guidelines Applied to Residential Lighting Need to establish rule for how choices are made in the baseline throughout the lifetime of the measure. – Like-for-like replacement – when lamps in the counterfactual need replacement, they are replaced with the same thing – Typical choices at time of RTF approval – when lamps in counterfactural need replacement, they are replaced with the same mix of inc/hal/CFL/LED that is assumed at the time of measure implementation – Something in-between – there is some correlation between what was installed and what gets replaced, but not 100% Once this baseline rule is chosen, the baseline and efficient case can be modeled and lifetime savings can be determined. 13

14. Current Practice Baseline – Guidelines Applied to Residential Lighting (cont’d) All options would be subject to EISA 2020: For decisions in 2020 and beyond, inc/hal options would be replaced by a EISA 2020-compliant lamp. Concerns raised at Subcommittee: – Uncertainty in EISA 2020 implementation / manufacturer pushback Staff/CAT response: RTF typically doesn’t speculate on modifications to existing standards. If it’s on the books, we account for it. – Lighting controls may dramatically extend the lifetime of halogen lamps Staff/CAT response: – 95% of fixtures in RBSA are on manual controls. – No data to support halogen lifetime extension from typical use of lighting controls. 14 RTF Confirmation

15. Current Practice Baseline – Guidelines Applied to Residential Lighting 15 Baseline: Like-for-like replacement Baseline: Typical choices at time of RTF approval Baseline: Something in-between

16. Is there field research to inform this? Massachusetts panel study of sockets (NMR Group) – Same sockets visited in 2013, 2014, 2015 – “Households made a dramatic shift from inefficient to efficient bulbs, resulting in a net decrease in average wattage” – “LEDs as replacement bulbs affected all bulb types (including CFLs)” 16 Source: NMR Group, Inc., “Seeing The Light: Residential Panel Study Reveals Positive Developments” http://www.nmrgroupinc.com/seeing- the-light-residential-panel-study-reveals- positive-developments/

17. Current Practice Baseline 17 Baseline: Like-for-like replacement Baseline: Typical choices at time of RTF approval Baseline: Something in-between Staff/CAT recommend using the “typical choices” option for future replacements. Like-for-like replacement gives an upper-bound on likely baseline wattage Typical choices is consistent with the wording of the Guidelines and the rationale behind using a Current Practice baseline is consistent with our choice to use sales, rather than socket data for our baseline: each purchase decision is independent Something in-between requires an arbitrary selection of “where in-between?” is not likely to be very different than “Typical choices” RTF Confirmation

18. EISA 2020: 45 lumens/Watt 18 Phase 2 of the EISA lighting standards effective in 2020 – 45 lm/W for all covered lamps What should the baseline be from 2020 onward? – Federal standard (45 lm/W, 1,000 hour lifetime) No product exists on the market with these specifications – Lowest cost/worst performing compliant technology (CFL – 45 lm/W, ~5,000 hours lifetime, CFL cost) 7 th Plan approach Efficacy RTF Confirmation

19. Adjust sales data to account for lamp lifetime? Typical Choices: If each lamp purchase is independent of what it replaced, then no need to adjust for lifetime; each purchase is an independent choice. 19 RTF Confirmation

20. Delivery Mechanisms – Current practice baseline Retail Mail by Request Unsolicited Mail Give away – Current Practice or Pre-conditions? Direct Install – Depends on replacement assumptions earlier in presentation – Staff/CAT recommend Current Practice baseline to be consistent with Typical Choices lamp replacement model. – First installation (time of measure delivery) would be pre-condition, though NEEA Socket Count – No longer needed as a delivery mechanism/ProCost results – Instead, workbook will include a worksheet of inputs for NEEA’s model (template provided by NEEA) 20 RTF Confirmation

21. Current Practice Baseline 21 Key Questions: (Staff/CAT recommendations in bold blue) What should be assumed for replacements required in the baseline after the time of the measure installation? Like-for-like replacement Typical choices at time of RTF approval Something in-between Should EISA 2020 be factored into the replacement model? Yes No What replaces incandescent/halogen in the baseline for non-EISA-exempt categories in 2020 and onward? 45 lm/W, 1,000 hours, ? cost 45 lm/W, CFL lifetime, CFL cost Something else Do sales need to be normalized by lamp life to estimate the lifetime? Yes No What baseline should be used for post-delivery replacements in the Direct Install delivery mechanism? Current practice Pre-conditions

22. Non-residential Participants in Retail Programs 22 Key Questions: What portion of upstream retail lamp sales should be assumed to go into non- residential sockets? by lamp type, lumen bin What should the baseline mix of technologies be for this portion of the market? What hours of use should be assumed for this portion of the market? Should retail measures be categorized as Planning or Provisional to address these uncertainties?

23. Accounting for Non-residential Participants 23 Some lamps sold through retail, upstream programs are installed in commercial spaces (including MF common-space) – Likely between 5 and 20% of all lamps Unclear which lamp types/lumen bins – Unclear what the baseline for these lamps is – Unclear what the hours of use are (could be much higher than residential) Significant uncertainty in this aspect of the retail measure = Planning measure? The next slides summarize what we know and how significant the uncertainty in savings is.

24. Non-residential Participants – Volume of Sales 24 Regional Data: – PSE/SBW/RIA Phone survey of 46 high-volume participating retailers in upstream program (74% of program volume) 22% of CFLs, 20% of LEDs sold to commercial customers Adjust for less commercial sales at lower volume retailers: 17% CFLs, 20% LEDs http://www.wutc.wa.gov/rms2.nsf/177d98baa5918c7388256a550064a61e/4d5df7ff36cccbf288257ce8005c84 f6!OpenDocument – NorthWestern Energy/SBW/RIA Phone survey of 8 CFL buy-down participants 19% commercial sales http://puc.sd.gov/commission/dockets/gaselectric/2012/ge12-001/vol1.pdf – Some commercial sales may have been to contractors who installed them in residential spaces New construction, remodel, direct install program – Ongoing research (lamp type-specific) Bonneville – surveys of building owners, property managers, and retailers – RTF measure categorization could inform survey instruments – Results expected ~January 2016 PSE – customer intercept studies at big box stores – Data collection almost complete

25. Non-residential Participants – Volume of Sales 25 Non-NW Data: Literature review of non-res lamp installs Source: Memorandum To: Massachusetts Program Administrators and Energy Efficiency Advisory Council, From: Michael Strom, Chris Russell, Lisa Wilson‐Wright, and Lynn Hoefgen, NMR Group, Inc., Doug Bruchs, and Bryan Ward, Cadmus Subject: Massachusetts Residential Lighting Cross‐Sector Sales Research Date: March 24, 2015 http://ma-eeac.org/wordpress/wp- content/uploads/Residential-Lighting- Cross-Sector-Sales-Research-Memo.pdf

26. Non-residential Participants – Volume of Sales 26 RTF needs to choose an estimate of the relative volume of non- residential installation Research done in the NW suggests ~15% – This discounts observed self-report data to account for commercial sales installed in residential spaces Customer intercept surveys in other regions suggest 6% – This is likely the most accurate methodology – But every region is unique: current practice, incentive levels, participating retailers vary. Staff/CAT recommendation: – 10% for General Purpose and Reflector and Outdoor categories – It’s in the middle of our two most reasonable estimates These are the typical commercial screw-base lamps – 0% for other lamp types RTF Confirmation

27. Non-residential Participants – Hours of Use 27 Hours of Use – DOE EERE, “2010 U.S. Lighting Market Characterization” 10-11 hours per day for screw-base lamps in commercial spaces – Meta-study of self-reported hours of use by building operators – EMI 2014, “Michigan Statewide Commercial and Industrial Lighting Hours-of- Use Study” (metered study) 7.5 hours per day for all lamp types – BPA and other Lighting Calculators Self-reported hours of use by space-type, not specific to screw-based lamps in those space types. – BPA/SBW Commercial Lighting Research Plan for Commercial: Lighting - Non-Residential Lighting Retrofits UES measure Includes metering of some screw-based lamps Results expected ~August 2015 http://rtf.nwcouncil.org/protocols/com/NonResLightingRetrofitsResearchPlan_V1.docx Staff/CAT recommendation: – 7.5 hours per day – prefer metered data to self-reported data RTF Confirmation

28. Non-residential Participants – Baseline 28 Baseline lamp types, types of lamps sold to commercial customers – DOE EERE, “2010 U.S. Lighting Market Characterization” CFL-to-Incandescent ratio twice as high for Commercial than for Residential – NEEA – CBSA 580 observations of screw-based fixtures in buildings, count of fixtures in subspace, weighting up to site and region – Could examine the types of screw-base lamps small businesses install – Without a good estimate of hours of use, can’t map sockets to sales, though Staff/CAT recommendation – Assume sales baseline for both residential and non-residential installations is the same Analytical simplicity More efficient than average baseline for commercial implies less efficient than average baseline for residential – effects would counteract With non-residential installations 10% of all sales, the impact on savings of a simplifications here would be less than 10%. RTF Confirmation

29. Accounting for Non-residential Participants 29 Consider weighted average hours of use for General Purpose lamp, 750-1049 lumens. – Residential hours of use: 2.0 hrs/day (analysis based on RBSA socket count and metered study) – Commercial hours of use: vary from 0 to 10 hrs/day – Commercial share of participation: vary from 0 to 20% Likely range of resulting hours of use is between 2.0 and 3.2. This is 2.6 +/- 23%. Savings are directly proportional to HOU

30. Upstream Retail ≠ Proven Measure? 30 – Likely effect is large, but uncertain – Without quantifying this effect, we don’t have the certainty needed for a Proven retail measure – However, research originating from a research plan may not be useful for very long (EISA 2020) – Is ongoing research likely to narrow the range of uncertainty? % of commercial installs – Bonneville – surveys of building owners, property managers, and retailers – PSE – store intercepts – These studies will give us more regional data points, and at a level of granularity not available in other studies Commercial Hours of Use – Research Plan for Commercial: Lighting - Non-Residential Lighting Retrofits UES measure – Lighting Calculators – Bonneville and other – Staff/CAT recommend: setting the category for the retail delivery mechanism to Provisional limit the Research Plan to research on the region that is already underway Update measure in time for Bonneville Implementation Manual (update needed in January, 2016) RTF Confirmation

31. Research Needs 31 Estimate where lamps purchased from residential-facing retailers end up (residential, MF common space, commercial), by technology type, lamp type, lumen bin – Develop estimate based on results of ongoing research being conducted by Bonneville and PSE Estimate hours of use for these applications – Residential – RBSA and Avista metered studies – MF Common Space - ? – Commercial – Non-residential Retrofit Lighting research, regional lighting calculators

32. Non-residential Participants in Retail Programs 32 Key Questions: (Staff/CAT recommendations in bold blue) What portion of upstream retail lamp sales should be assumed to go into non-residential sockets? by lamp type, lumen bin 10% for General Purpose and Reflector/Outdoor and 0% for other lamp types Something else What should the baseline mix of technologies be for this portion of the market? Assume shelf/sales baseline is representative of all sectors Something else What hours of use should be assumed for this portion of the market? 7.5 hours/day Something else Should retail measures be categorized as Planning or Provisional to address these uncertainties? Yes No

33. Measure Identifiers 33 Key Questions: Lumen Bins Switch to EISA lumen bins? Extend smallest lumen bin from 310 to 749 lumens to 250 to 749 lumens? Consider grouping 749 to 1049 lumens with 1049 to 1489 lumens

34. Lumen Bins The RTF’s current measure uses the following lumen bins – 250 to 664 lumens – 665 to 1439 lumens – 1440 to 2600 lumens However, the EISA standard uses the following lumen bins – less than 310 lumens – 310 to 749 lumens – 750 to 1049 lumens – 1050 to 1489 lumens – 1490 to 2600 lumens Program concerns – – changing lumen categories requires program infrastructure retooling – Increased number of categories is problematic – Very few lamps in market under 310 lm or above 2600 lm RTF Staff/CAT proposal – 250 to 749 lumens Extend EISA range on the low end to be consistent with existing programs ENERGY STAR qualified products exist at this lower bound – 750 to 1049 lumens – 1050 to 1489 lumens Consider grouping with 749 to 1049, based on sales/shelf results – 1490 to 2600 lumens 34 RTF Judgement

35. Lamp Types As part of the April 2014 Residential Lighting measure update, Staff/CAT consider lamp type categorization and developed the following: – Decorative and Mini-Base – General Purpose and Dimmable – Globe – Reflectors and Outdoor – Three-Way Staff/CAT demonstrated that further aggregation could lead to significant variation in actual savings depending on the program mix of lamp types – E.g., number of globe vs. decorative lamps Bonneville considered alternate groupings that mirror EISA coverage/exemptions, but this resulted in an impractically large number of lamp type categories Staff/CAT will prepare the measure update using the same lamp type categories RTF presentation April 23, 2014 http://rtf.nwcouncil.org/meetings/2014/04/Residential_Lighting_CFLandLED_2014_04_23%20v18.pptx http://rtf.nwcouncil.org/meetings/2014/04/Residential_Lighting_CFLandLED_2014_04_23%20v18.pptx Subcommittee presentations from March 2014 http://rtf.nwcouncil.org/subcommittees/reslighting/meetings.htm 35

36. Other Measure Identifiers Delivery mechanism – Addressed earlier in the presentation Room type group – Direct Install only – This measure identifier is addressed later in presentation 36

37. Measure Identifiers 37 Key Questions: (Staff/CAT recommendations in bold blue) Lumen Bins Switch to EISA lumen bins? Yes No Extend smallest lumen bin from 310 to 749 lumens to 250 to 749 lumens? Yes No Consider grouping 749 to 1049 lumens with 1049 to 1489 lumens? Yes No

38. ProCost/Measure Workbook Modeling 38 Key Questions: How to model varying lifetime savings in ProCost? From present to 2019 From 2020 onward Should Risk Mitigation Credit be applied to near-term savings or just persistent savings? Which results should be shown in the measure table?

39. EISA 2020: Modelling in measure workbook 39 RTF CAT/Staff proposed approach – Do two ProCost runs: One for savings that persist throughout measure life One for incremental savings that go away after 2019 – Compute overall cost effectiveness from total TRC Costs and total TRC Benefits – In the measure table, Have two columns for savings: 2016 to 2019, 2020 onward – Add an explanation sheet at the beginning of the workbook to explain the stepped shape of savings – In this way, the RTF provides programs with first year savings, out-year savings, and cost-effectiveness assuming stepped-savings. Programs can determine which savings values are appropriate for them. – Staff/CAT considered also showing average annual savings over the measure life, but don’t think it’s a meaningful, or necessary number. RTF Confirmation

40. Risk Mitigation Credit 40 ProCost applies credit to each kWh of savings Savings that only last a few years do not mitigate longer-term risks – 7 th Plan only applies risk mitigation credit to savings exceeding 45 lm/W RTF Confirmation LED Wattage Short-term savings – don’t apply Risk Mitigation Credit Persistent savings – apply Risk Mitigation Credit

41. ProCost/Measure Workbook Modeling 41 Key Questions: (Staff/CAT recommendations in bold blue) How to model varying lifetime savings in ProCost? From present to 2019 Average savings over that period Something else From 2020 onward Average savings over that period Something else Should Risk Mitigation Credit be applied to near-term savings or just persistent savings? Apply to all savings Apply only to savings that last beyond 2019 Which results should be shown in the measure table? Modify measure table to show savings from both time ranges Average annual savings over lifetime Something else

42. Residential Hours of Use 42 Key Questions: What study should be used for hours of use?

43. Hours of Use (Residential) 43 Current RTF measures use hours of use (HOU) measured in California in 2008/2009 – 8452 fixtures at 1233 sites – “Final Evaluation Report: Upstream Lighting Program Volume 1” CALMAC Study ID: CPU0015.01 – http://www.calmac.org/publications/FinalUpstreamLi ghtingEvaluationReport_Vol1_CALMAC_3.pdf http://www.calmac.org/publications/FinalUpstreamLi ghtingEvaluationReport_Vol1_CALMAC_3.pdf Hours of use, by room type, are applied to each lighting record in RBSA to determine average hours of use by lamp type/lumen bin

44. Hours of Use (Residential) 44 RBSA study included lighting hours of use metering – http://neea.org/docs/default-source/reports/residential- building-stock-assessment--metering-study.pdf?sfvrsn=6 http://neea.org/docs/default-source/reports/residential- building-stock-assessment--metering-study.pdf?sfvrsn=6 – NEEA, April 28, 2014 REPORT #E14-283 Residential Building Stock Assessment: Metering Study – 874 fixtures, 104 sites Staff/CAT propose using this more recent data, from the region, rather than the California data. – Avista has offered metered data from an additional 70 homes to bolster our regional sample

45. Room Type Groups (Direct Install and NEEA Socket Count only) Hours of Use (HOU) and Room Type Groups – Current measure uses KEMA data from CA, supplemented by DOE data – Propose using RBSA metered data – Significantly Higher HOU for Family/Kitchen/Living Room suggests separating High and Moderate Use room type groups. 45

46. Residential Hours of Use 46 Key Questions: (Staff/CAT recommendations in bold blue) What study should be used for hours of use? California metered sample RBSA metered sample / Avista metered sample (if available) RBSA metered sample extrapolated to NW population / Avista metered sample (if available)

47. Extrapolating LED Cost and Performance Data to Time of Implementation 47 Key Questions: Should LED Cost and Efficacy be extrapolated to 2016?

48. LED Cost and Performance Extrapolation 48 Current measure (RTF approved in April 2014) includes extrapolation of existing LED cost and performance data to time of measure implementation to reflect the rapidly changing market Staff/CAT propose to use same approach this time – Use data collected in 2014 Sources: Efficacy: “SSL Pricing and Efficacy Trend Analysis for Utility Program Planning” PNNL 2013 Cost: "Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications” Navigant Consulting for US DOE, August 2014

49. Extrapolating LED Cost and Performance Data to Time of Implementation 49 Key Questions: (Staff/CAT recommendations in bold blue) Should LED Cost and Efficacy be extrapolated to 2016? Yes No

50. Backup Slides 50

51. Adjust sales data to account for lamp lifetime? Typical Choices: If each lamp purchase is independent of what it replaced, than no need to adjust for lifetime; each purchase is an independent choice. Like-for-like: If each lamp purchase is correlated to what it replaced, than multiple lamp purchases are part of the same consumer choice (e.g., to be a halogen socket) and sales data should be normalized to account for lamp life. – Analogy: Internet subscription: If DSL internet subscribers paid for service monthly And cable internet subscribers paid for three months at a time We’d determine market share by a count of subscribers, not a count of payments 51

52. BPA/NEEA Sales-based Baseline 52

53. BPA/NEEA Sales-based Baseline Data – Sales data of major retailers from Neilsen in 2014 – NEEA Shelf survey (December 2014) – Estimates of market share by store category (analysis based on data from 2014 ENERGY STAR Partners meeting) – Estimates of market share by retailer based on NW store count and number of lamps displayed per store – Sales data use for retailers where available ( ~30% of market ) – Supplemented with shelf survey data – Analysis by Cadeo Group for Bonneville, on going 53

54. Lamp Costs 54

55. Lamp Costs 55 Baseline lamps costs: Bonneville/NEEA shelf/sales data (2014), data not yet available Measure Cost: Idaho Power program data (Q1 2015)

56. Derating CFL and LED Lifetime 56

57. Derating CFL and LED Lifetime 57 Switching effects on CFL lifetime “Welcome to the Dark Side: The Effect of Switching on CFL Measure Life” Corina Jump, James J. Hirsch, Jane Peters, and Dulane Moran, 2008 ACEEE Summer Study

58. Derating CFL and LED Lifetime 58 Switching effects on CFL lifetime “Welcome to the Dark Side: The Effect of Switching on CFL Measure Life” Corina Jump, James J. Hirsch, Jane Peters, and Dulane Moran, 2008 ACEEE Summer Study

59. Derating CFL and LED Lifetime 59 LEDs – Switching does not appear to be an issue – Lumen depreciation is the mode of failure that lifetime ratings are based on – Rapidly evolving products make long test periods impractical – RTF has historically capped the lifetime of LEDs to 12 years to address uncertainty in actual product performance and real-world factors (break, remodel) – Staff/CAT recommend no change

60. Storage Rate Slides from October 2013 CFL Presentation http://rtf.nwcouncil.org/meetings/2013/10/CFLs_RTF_2013_10%20v20.pptx http://rtf.nwcouncil.org/meetings/2013/10/CFLs_RTF_2013_10%20v20.pptx 60

61. Accounting for Storage Rate To date, the RTF has not counted savings for energy efficient equipment that is installed later on. But there is evidence that most CFLs eventually get installed, probably within a few years of purchase or receipt. How should the RTF account for stored-but-eventually-used products? 61

62. Storage Rate – Lifetime Guidelines 1.2.2. Measure Lifetime Measure lifetime is defined as the median number of years during which at least half the deliveries of a measure are in place and operable, i.e., produce savings. Measure lifetime should not be confused with a measure’s sunset date, which is the period during which a measure’s savings estimation method is RTF-approved. 2.3.1. Factors Affecting Lifetime Many factors may have a substantial impact on measure lifetime. All substantial factors should be considered in the estimation. A factor is substantial if it would increase or decrease the measure lifetime by at least 20%. Factors that may be relevant to measure lifetime include, but are not limited to, the following. – Program delivery method. Measures directly installed may last longer than measures delivered via mail for self-install, because self-installers may be less skilled and may not install according to manufacturer expectations, such as appropriate placement. 62

63. Storage Rate – CFL Failure Lamps installed right away (e.g., direct install) 63 Source: Review of Massachusetts tracking data. Lynn Hoefgen et al., 2013, “Study It ‘til You’re Sick of It: CFL Research as an Example of Other Efficiency Markets”, 2013 International Energy Program Evaluation Conference.

64. Storage Rate – CFL Failure But not all retail lamps get installed right away 64 Assumes that 24% of lamps are installed at time of receipt, and 8% of lamps are installed in each of the subsequent 3 years.

65. Storage Rate – CFL Failure But not all retail lamps get installed right away 65 Note: 1)Installation rate increases in first few years 2)But some lamps installed in the first couple of years are already failing 3)The lifetime of the retail measure (6.1) is longer than that of the direct install measure (5.5).

66. Storage Rate – Savings Guidelines Roadmap 1.3.2. Savings “Savings is defined as the difference in energy use between the baseline (see section 3.2) and post (after measure delivery) periods, which is caused by the delivery of a measure.” – Not clear on how to specify savings with unusual decay functions. – Historically, RTF has used first year savings, except for Last Measure In (LMI) measures. 66

67. Storage Rate – Questions What should the savings value represent? – First year savings? – Maximum savings before end of EUL? – Average savings from measure start until death of last unit? – Something else? The answer to this should inform how to handle storage rates for CFLs, where we – know the patterns of failure overtime, and – think we know when stored bulbs eventually get used Staff proposal: – Use first year savings – Use failure and installation patterns to estimate median time to 50% installation. This complies with the Guidelines. – Guidelines Issue: This does not lead to the correct lifetime savings (savings x EUL). [RTF approved this proposal at the October 2013 RTF meeting] Staff also received a proposal to disregard storage rate because the stored lamps tend to get installed within a few years. This has been discussed at previous RTF meetings. 67