1. Disaster Resilience – does regulation matter? UN Summit on Disaster Resilience, 25 th June 2014 Dr. Sebastian von Dahlen Economic Counsellor IAIS c/o BIS, Basel London, 25 th June 2014

2. Outline 1. Resilience 2. Disasters 3. Learning 4. Integrating disaster risk and resilience 2

3. 1. Resilience … … (re)insurance, and regulation Toward defining resilience: Source: von Dahlen (2014), forthcoming in «Exploring Extremes» (book) Resilience – synonyms include: flexibility and elasticity 3

4. 2. Disasters … … insurance, and GDP growth effects a) Impact on growth path (GDP)b) Cumulative effect (GDP) Source: von Dahlen, von Peter (2014), Journal of Financial Perspectives (forthcoming) 4

5. 3. Learning … … including on risks at the sovereign level Source: von Dahlen (2014), forthcoming in «Exploring Extremes» (book) 5

6. 4. Integrating disaster risk and resilience … … in financial and wider regulation 1. On-going IAIS work: Macroprudential surveillance (MPS) tools / analytics Toward a global BCR and ICS 2. More broadly, integrating disaster risks and resilience: Goes beyond insurance regulation Should include appropriate incentive structures 6

7. 4. Integrating disaster risk and resilience … … and the post-2015 Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction Proposed architecture of indicator system includes: Source: UNISDR (2014), United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Post-2015 Framework for DRR, draft 5 June 2014 Identify underlying drivers of risk and resilience! 7 Reducing Existing Risk Risk sensitive public sector Risk sensitive private sector Avoiding New Risk Risk sensitive public sector Risk sensitive private sector Strengthening Social and Economic Resilience Resilient public sector Resilient private sector

8. 4. Integrating disaster risk and resilience … 8 1.Environmental resilience and stability, Actors: e.g. UN, WB; 2.Economic resilience and stability, Actors: e.g. G20, OECD, IMF; 3.Financial resilience and stability, Actors: e.g. FSB, BIS, IAIS, IOSCO; Source: von Dahlen (2014), forthcoming in «Exploring Extremes» (book) … and three resilience and stability dimensions:

9. 4. Integrating disaster risk and resilience...... into the financial system This should include: Identifying and analysing prevailing risks; Reducing existing risks; Avoiding new risks; Strengthening financial, economic, social and environmental resilience – 1:100 ? Supporting stakeholders from different fields. 9

10. Thank you! 10