1. User Conference 10/30/14 2015 ESA-CSUF Master’s in Applied Math Research Program: Storms John D. Grace Earth Science Associates Long Beach, CA October 30, 2014

2. Follows 2012 Pore Pressure Prediction Project Highly productive 2012 ESA-CSUF project on pore pressure –>100 maps already in GOM 3 & growing –AAPG Bulletin article Model for adding value to GOM 3 by analysis of our data Seeking to broaden support User Conference 10/30/14

3. Technical Plan Upgrade storm forecasting –Extract possible paths for “disturbed air” –Disaggregate wind speed/timing data from NHC forecast tracks –Perform extensive validation tests Upgrade storm impact assessment –Effect of storm on GOM oil & gas supply –Calibrate to historical record User Conference 11/14/13

4. Spatial-Temporal Evolution of a Storm User Conference 10/30/14 Hurricane Bertha 7/27/14-8/6/14

5. Bayes’ Rule: Introducing Storm History into a Forecast User Conference 10/30/14 80% NHC Probability Disturbed Air System Becomes a Cyclone = 80% Probability Enters GOM = 37% Probability Disturbed Air Enters GOM As A Cyclone = (80% x 37%) = 30% Recalculate Map for Approach from East– Prob(Enter GOM) = 45% Recalculate Map for Approach from Southeast Prob(Enter GOM) = 15%

6. Monte Carlo: Deriving Possible Tracks from Disturbed Air Poly User Conference 10/30/14 All Named Hurricanes > 1950 Storms Intersecting Disturbed Air Origin Polygon Density of Tracks on Single Realization

7. Wind Speed & Timing Distributions User Conference 11/14/13 A-Lobster Platform EW-873 As of 0800 Central Time 8/20/15 NHC Storm Track

8. Forecasting Supply Loss User Conference 11/14/13 Estimate Pre- & Post- Storm Equilibria Estimate Short-Term Losses

9. Financial Proposal ESA is donating time & software Support we seek is 100% for grad students in project ($20K) We are not selling a new service – all results accessible to all users We are not trying to compete with private meteorological services – this is academic research User Conference 11/14/13