1. Modelling of Toll Roads KUALA LUMPUR region Malaysia Presentation to Emme/2 users Group Brisbane April 2004

2. Bio-data -- John Mundy Degrees in Transport Planning and Computer Science; 10 years with UK Local Authority; 11 years with consultants (the MVA Group) - resided in Europe, Hong Kong and Malaysia; 9 years with Malaysian “construction group” / toll road operator; 5 months back into consultancy with SKM.

3. Major Projects / Achievements Simulation of in-street LRT running Hong Kong Airport Rail Link planning Hong Kong; Development and implementation of privatised toll roads in Malaysia; Talk today will focus on the latter and the application of Emme / 2 to deriving traffic and revenue forecasts.

4. Malaysia - “in brief” Modern day Malaysia was driven by former Prime Minister Mahathir; He recognised the need for mobilisation of private sector in partnership with the public sector; In period mid 80’s to mid 90’s GDP grew at annual rates of around 7% to 10%. Obvious need for infrastructure. Klang Valley - the economic engine 35% of national GDP.

5. Klang Valley - KL Region Some 20% of Malaysia’s population About 40% of nations cars - car ownership now approaching 0.3 per head. National car project(s) fuelled the rapid growth through late 80’s to mid 90’s; Early 1990’s road congestion was an issue and received a lot of press coverage; In last 10 years private sector investment in rail and road has successfully (relatively) contained the ills of congestion

6. Klang Valley - “Toll” city Since the early 1990’s the KL region has seen construction of:- over 400 kilometres of toll road (mostly dual 3 lanes) imposition of 40 toll plazas Many different concessions, but a couple of key players:- PLUS operating North-South Highway “through” the region and the Federal Route 2; Litrak / Gamuda - 3 highways comprising of 130 kilometres and 10 plazas in operation. SMART under construction.

7. 1. Shah Alam Expressway Won by competitive tender Capital costs of AUS$ 400 million.

8. 2. Damansara Puchong Highway Sole-source (unsolicited) proposal Capital costs also of AUS$ 400 million. Project company listed as greenfield 3 yrs prior to tolling

9. 3. Sprint Highway Sole-source (unsolicited) proposal Capital costs of AUS$ 500 million. Project has Malaysia’s 1st urban double deck structure and dual 3 lane tunnel

10. Modelling the Klang Valley Gamuda / Litrak identified the needs and opportunities an in-house transport section could answer; Aim was to “protect, enhance existing assets and to search for & identify new opportunities”; “beauty contest” of 5 consultants conducted in 1996, with 4 nominating Emme/2 as the platform model has developed over the last 7 years - more complexity added to bring “forecast” volumes fully in line with “actuals”.

11. Basic Structure of Model

12. Simple Model in 1996 Land use breakdown - population / employment Two vehicle types - privates and goods Matrix Estimated from counts 1 typical hour assignment - simple link and node network

13. More Complex Model by 2003 Land use breakdown - population by four income groups / employment by six activity types Trip generation of 13 categories (4 incomes by 3 purposes for privates; goods) Trip distribution introduced, calibrated against roadside survey data and independent screenline counts.

14. More Complex Model by 2003 Assignment of 10 separate matrices each with own values-of-time (9 privates and goods) Peak and inter-peak with appropriate weighting and combination to form daily forecasts. Junction delay modelling - both signalised and priority (including ramp entries)

15. Signalised Junction Modelling Total signalised junction capacity based on number of lanes approaching and the number of phases at the junction Volume through the junction was calculated and a junction volume / capacity ratio derived. Average delay at junction was relative to V/C Specific delay of turning movements through the junction - (left turns, throughs, rights and U’s were weighted differently)

16. Priority Junction Modelling Total junction capacity based on minimum of entry lane / exit lane capacity Volume through the junction was calculated and a junction volume / capacity ratio derived. Average delay at junction was relative to V/C Specific delay of turning movements through the junction - (left turns, throughs, rights and U’s were weighted differently). Also introduced the relative priorities of approach and exit

17. Incorporation of Junction Delay the signalised and priority junction delays were implemented through the Emme/2 macros and the VDF / turn penalty facilities. user data items were used to store the number of feeding lanes, stages at the signal and hence the junction capacity. extra attributes were used to identify signalised and priority junctions, the type of turn (L,T,R,U) and the type of move (non-priority to non-priority etc.)

18. “behavioural” factors in assignment drivers comfort bonus - hypotheses that 5 minutes on a congested stop-start route is ‘different’ to 5 minutes on a fee flow expressway. perceptions of delay at signals / priority junctions -- earlier calculations aimed at true values, concept that “stopped / delay” time would be weighted more highly than moving time. perceptions of toll cost -- true toll into model links but what of those that may not pay toll or use electronic means and thus may not perceive full amount. non-perception of vehicle operating (distance) costs.

19. other “behavioural” issues considered infinite and zero values-of-time; concept that even lower income travellers have urgent “quickest route” trips. Whilst some drivers will not pay toll out of principle. distance of trip impacting toll / non-toll choice. Toll as proportion of overall journey cost. perfect knowledge / signposting. A model will assume driver knows all options, even very local alternatives routes. Concept of longer distance trips being “signposted” forced to certain road hierarchy. point tolls not perceived as such. Application of open tolls as point load in the network, whereas perceived as cost for extended use.

20. Issue of “Elasticity”

21. Conclusions Transport models are an essential tool in forecasting traffic and revenues on toll roads. The modelling of human behaviour will remain a challenge and the flexibility and analytical skills of the user are paramount. The experience of Malaysia was that Emme/2 provided great flexibility through its macro capabilities. Whether we like it or not “Tolls are the future”