1. Moving Forward: Egypt and Its Population

2. Egypt’s Population

3. 2 % Growth Rate 61.5

4. Egypt’s Population 123 2 % Growth Rate 61.5

5. Egypt China India Bangladesh

6. Egypt China India Bangladesh 5.5% habitable and 2.4% arable

7. = 100 persons Comparative Density EgyptBangladesh

8. Bangladesh = 100 persons Comparative Density Egypt 1,400 people/km 2

9. Bangladesh = 100 persons Comparative Density Egypt 2,600 people/km 2 1,400 people/km 2

10. = 100 persons Comparative Density Egypt 5,100 people/km 2 in 2030 Bangladesh 1,400 people/km 2

11. New Valley Development

12. Current Arable Land

13. New Valley Development Current Arable Land New Valley Arable Land

14. New Valley Development Current Arable Land New Valley Arable Land

15. New Valley Development Current Arable Land New Valley Arable Land 15 years.

16. Projection Assumptions u Two population projections

17. Projection Assumptions u Two population projections - Current fertility rate of 3.3 remains constant - red

18. Projection Assumptions u Two population projections - Current fertility rate of 3.3 remains constant - red - Replacement level fertility of 2.1 children per woman by 2015 - yellow

19. Annual Births constant fertility low fertility

20. Annual Births 1.6 constant fertility low fertility

21. Annual Births 2.5 1.6 constant fertility low fertility

22. Annual Births 1.5 2.5 1.61.6 constant fertility low fertility

23. Total Population constant fertility low fertility

24. Total Population 61.5 106 constant fertility low fertility

25. Total Population 61.5 90 106 constant fertility low fertility

26. Sectoral Impacts

27. Economy

28. Consequences of Growth Currently, Egypt must create 520,000 new jobs each year.

29. New Jobs Required

30. 520 580 constant fertility

31. 520 580 New Jobs Required low fertility constant fertility 270

32. 2.4 million jobs 520 580 New Jobs Required low fertility constant fertility 270

33. Effects on the Economy With ample employment:

34. Effects on the Economy With ample employment: With inadequate employment:

35. Water

36. Water u Drinking u Irrigation u Industry u Drinking u Irrigation u Industry

37. ... a lack of water may become one of the most serious impediments to the nation’s economic development, to say nothing of its negative impact on the quality of life of Egypt’s residents.” “ Egyptian Center for Economic Studies, 1996

38. Water Available per Person constant fertility low fertility

39. Water Available per Person 570 980 constant fertility low fertility

40. Water Available per Person 670 570 980 constant fertility low fertility

41. Water Available per Person 670 570 980 constant fertility low fertility 18% difference

42. Health

43. High fertility leads to high death rates among infants and mothers.

44. 30 41 121

45. High Risk Births

46. 26%

47. 425,000 infants exposed 26% High Risk Births

48. 425,000 infants exposed 34,000 infant lives saved High Risk Births

49. Benefits of Birth Spacing

50. Sectoral Impacts - 2026 18% higher income per person 2.7 million fewer in Cairo 3.8 million fewer primary students 18% more water 480 million LE saved annually in health costs

51. Contraceptive Prevalence and Total Fertility Contraceptive Prevalence Rate Total Fertility Rate

52. Contraceptive Prevalence and Total Fertility Contraceptive Prevalence Rate Total Fertility Rate 7% 7

53. Contraceptive Prevalence and Total Fertility Contraceptive Prevalence Rate Total Fertility Rate 48% 7% 7

54. Contraceptive Prevalence and Total Fertility Contraceptive Prevalence Rate Total Fertility Rate 7% 7 48%

55. Contraceptive Prevalence and Total Fertility Contraceptive Prevalence Rate Total Fertility Rate 7% 7 54% 48%

56. Contraceptive Prevalence and Total Fertility Contraceptive Prevalence Rate Total Fertility Rate 7% 3.6 7 54% 3.3 48%

57. Contraceptive Prevalence and Total Fertility Contraceptive Prevalence Rate Total Fertility Rate 7% 3.6 7 54% 3.3 70% 48%

58. Contraceptive Prevalence and Total Fertility Contraceptive Prevalence Rate Total Fertility Rate 7% 3.6 7 54% 3.3 70% 2.1 48%

59. Actions Required è Continue strong Government of Egypt support for the family planning program è Strengthen linkages between the family planning program and other sectors è Enhance private sector participation in the family planning program

60. Cost and Benefits of Family Planning Programs

61. Tunisia 8.60

62. TunisiaIndonesia 8.60 12.50

63. TunisiaIndonesiaThailand 8.60 12.50 14.00

64. TunisiaIndonesiaThailandEgypt 8.60 12.50 14.00 30.00

65. Effects of a Delay

66. 104 - 2010

67. Effects of a Delay 104 - 2010 108 - 2015

68. Effects of a Delay 104 - 2010 112 - 2020 108 - 2015

69. Effects of a Delay 104 - 2010 112 - 2020 108 - 2015

70. Effects of a Delay 104 - 2010 112 - 2020 108 - 2015 5 year delay = 4 million 5 year delay = 4 million

71. Egypt’s Choices Continue current efforts Implement new approaches

72. Egypt’s Choices 3 Continue current efforts Implement new approaches

73. Egypt’s Choices 3 3 Continue current efforts Implement new approaches

74. Actions Required è Continue strong Government of Egypt support for the family planning program è Strengthen linkages between the family planning program and other sectors è Enhance private sector participation in the family planning program

75. Moving Forward: Egypt and Its Population