1. 1 GLOBAL TRADE OVERVIEW Workshop Favignana, 28-29 September, 2009 Audun Lem, FAO

2. 2 Outline World fish supply and demand –utilization and consumption –trade –China –prices Distribution trends Rise of aquaculture Conclusions

3. 3 WORLD FISH SUPPLY

4. 4 World fish production Million t200720082009e2009/ 2008 Capture90 0 Farmed5052 0.8% Total140142 0.3%

5. 5 FISHSTAT 2007 World Fish Production catch aquaculture

6. 6 Role of China in production

7. 7 Fish Utilization Food uses Feed

8. 8 Per caput food supply (est) Kg/year2007200820092009/08 Food fish 16.9 16.8-0.3% Capture9.49.39.2-1.3% Farmed7.57.6 1.0%

9. 9 Fish in overall protein supply

10. 10 World aquaculture production: growing quickly: 1950-2008, but slowing down aquaculture

11. 11 Aquaculture producers 2007 China

12. 12 Asia incl. China

13. 13 WORLD TRADE

14. 14 World Fish Trade: Export Value - in 1000 US$ - developing developed

15. 15 WORLD FISH EXPORTS US$ 99.5 BILLION (2008) TRADE STILL GROWING in ‘08 –+ 7 % (2008) 2008 IMPORTS > USD 100 BILL for 1 st time DEVELOPING COUNTRIES –50 % OF WORLD EXPORTS NET EXPORT REVENUES FROM FISHERIES CRUCIAL FOR MANY DEVELOPING COUNTRIES –US$ 26 bill. (2008)

16. 16 Share of world fisheries production destined to exports Million tonnes (live weight)

17. 17 Net exports from developing countries fish

18. 18 Main fish exporters 2008 (value)

19. 19 Main fish importers (2008) Japan USD 14.5 bill.13.8 % USUSD 14.1 bill.13.5 % EUUSD 49.0 bill.46.8 % Total big 3USD 77.6 bill.74.1 % Total worldUSD 104.7 bill. 100 %

20. 20 Fish market trends Japan: long-term decline but small rebound 2008 –high consumption: 65 kg/kaput –imports below 3 million tons in 2007 USA: long-term growth, overtaking Japan as # 1 country –rising population and consumption /kaput 24 kg consumer confidence falling in 2008 and 2009 2010 turn-around ? EU: long-term growth: # 1 market –expanding population, stable consumption at 20 kg –rising imports: e.g. catfish from Viet Nam, mussels from Chile South America –low average consumption, 9 kg per kaput, slow increase –large potential for increase –supply increase must come from aquaculture

21. 21 Distribution 71 % of world imports by three markets within these markets: supermarkets represent 50- 85 % of retail sales concentration of sales whereas industry remains fragmented same tendency in developing countries at the same time: seafood retail net margins reportedly low compared to other food products

22. 22 Future ? Supply side: more concentration in aquaculture for some species (salmon, European bass/bream) –focus on costs, economies of scale –focus on marketing and distribution Demand: retail concentration in developed and developing But aquaculture has some advantages over wild: –traceability –contracts on price and volumes

23. 23 ISSUES OF IMPACT

24. 24 Role of China in production

25. 25 Some recent data from China

26. 26 Seafood Consumption - China

27. 27 Protein Consumption - China

28. 28 The next China: Viet Nam 2008: Nr 5 among world exporters –but a growing importer as well reprocessing domestic consumption

29. 29 Commodity prices fish versus other food

30. 30 Food prices, excl. fish

31. 31 And fish ?

32. 32 The FAO Fish price index

33. 33 FUTURE FISH PRICES ? DEMAND: slowly rising –because of population growth –small underlying increase in per kaput consumption SUPPLY –capture: stable, not increasing –aquaculture: increasing but declining growth PRICE IMPACT ? –most probably slightly higher fish prices but not much –price cycles in commodity markets –industry profitability through product development, technological innovation and cost reduction

34. 34 TRADE CONTEXT 153 countries now in WTO –Russia is ready to join (?): 2010 ? –China joined 2001, Viet Nam in 2007 WTO: RULES BASED SYSTEM –tariffs –market access (SPS/TBT): quality and safety now main issue in market access –dispute resolution Doha Round: 2001 - ? –market access (tariffs) –fisheries subsidies Regional and bilateral trade agreements –proliferation –regional trade areas, like EU. –many South American countries active in bilaterals

35. 35 AQUACULTURE FUTURE fastest growing food producing sector in the world accounts for almost 50% of the global food fish 52 million tons of fish produced worth US$ 75 billion (2007) Given the projected population growth, an additional 40 million tons of aquatic food needed by 2030 to maintain current per caput consumption.

36. capture aquaculture 200520152030

37. 37 CONCLUSIONS Fish has always been a globalised commodity –but of higher importance for developing countries than most other commodities Fish production is increasing, but only thanks to aquaculture: 50% share in 2008 in food fish Fish trade is increasing: almost USD 100 billion in 2008 Fish trade: big 3 import 71 % but in decline Outsourcing of production and of processing Rise of China and Viet Nam, and Russia Future: India ?

38. 38 THANK YOU