1. OMM WMO WMO’S ROLE IN DISASTER MITIGATION AND RESPONSE CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES by M.Jarraud Secretary-General World Meteorological Organization

2. OMM WMO El Niño Weather, water and climate-related hazards Hail&Lightning Avalanches Flash floods Tornadoes Wildland fires & haze Hot & cold spells Heavy precipitations (rain or snow) Droughts Storm surges Storm (winds) River basin flooding Mud & landslides Ice Storms Tropical cyclones Dust storms

3. OMM WMO Global distribution of natural hazards (1993-2002)

4. OMM WMO Regional distribution of natural disasters (1993-2002)

5. OMM WMO Distribution of people killed (1993-2002)

6. OMM WMO Hydro-meteorological and geophysical disasters (1993-2002)

7. OMM WMO Evolution of natural disasters and their impacts

8. OMM WMO Climate change - Third IPCC assessment report - impacts In 2100 half of the world population will be under water stress Subtropical zones: Less precipitations; increased desertification Tropical zones: Increased health risks High latitudes: permafrost decrease Coastal zones: coastal erosion; storm surges; salt water intrusions Cost of global warming in 2050: 300 billion US Dollars per year (Munich Re)

9. OMM WMO International Framework ISDR succeeded IDNDR ProVention Several significant Declarations, Agendas and Conventions Millennium Declaration UNFCCC (climate change) UNCCD (desertification) Freshwater Agenda World Summit on Sustainable Development

10. OMM WMO Role of WMO in disaster management Response Recovery Mitigation Prevention Preparedness Monitoring Forecast and early warnings Vulnerability analysis and risk assessment Applications (agriculture, water resources, etc)

11. OMM WMO WMO’s contribution to natural disaster mitigation and reduction Adopting a framework for guidance and monitoring of disaster reduction Risk identification Knowledge management Risk management applications Preparedness and emergency management Governance support

12. OMM WMO Risk Identification Monitoring Early warnings for weather water or climate related disasters Adaptation measures Vulnerability assessment and Hazard analysis

13. OMM WMO Risk Identification: monitoring (1)

14. OMM WMO Risk Identification: monitoring (2)

15. OMM WMO Risk Identification: monitoring (3)

16. OMM WMO Risk Identification: monitoring (4)

17. OMM WMO Risk Identification: monitoring (5) 900 Argo floats in operation by mid-2003. By 2005, some 3 000 floats are planned.

18. OMM WMO Risk Identification: Early warnings (1) Ensemble Pred. tools 120 h 96 h72 h48 h24 h Global models Limited Area models Nowcasting tools Global models L.A. models EPS, Probabilities Warnings Activities Nowcasting Time dependency of forecast methods used for the preparation and maintenance of warnings at DWD (From Thomas Shuman –DWD)

19. OMM WMO GLOBAL DATA PROCESSING AND FORECASTING SYSTEMS Risk Identification: Early warnings (2) Strike probability (within 65 nm) of Typhoon Rusa over the next 120 hours. Starting time of the forecast is 27 August 2002 12 UTC. Full dots give the observed position over the period 27 August to 1 September 2002

20. OMM WMO Risk Identification: Early warnings (3) Observational data are needed for the study of climate variability and issue of warnings for climate- related disasters - issued from weeks to seasons in advance if adequate climate predictions are available Regular assessments and authoritative statements on climate variability Climate alert system for early warnings on pending significant climate anomalies

21. OMM WMO Risk Identification: Early warnings (4) WMO’s World Climate Programme (WCP) is monitoring and issuing El Niño outlooks, which alerts governments to prepare to El Niño related anomalies Regional Climate Outlook – important development for evaluation of seasonal forecasts Forums have become regular meetings in some regions, where NMHSs meet to discuss global climate model outputs and develop consensus seasonal forecasts for regional and local use

22. OMM WMO Risk Identification: Adaptation measures Adaptation is a response measure promoted by the UNFCC and early warning systems are one way of reducing vulnerability and enhancing adaptive capacity to weather events and climate change. Enhanced collaboration is needed between the climate and disaster reduction communities to the implementation of measures as environmental planning, data and information pooling, improved observation systems, best practices exchange, strengthened technical cooperation, and close collaboration with policy makers.

23. OMM WMO Risk Identification: Vulnerability assessment Linkage between climate and disaster databases to assess different vulnerabilities. A pilot project is on going in Chile linking climate with flood disaster databases with the support of WMO through the World Climate Programme as part of the activities of IATF working Groups on Climate and Disasters and on Risk, Vulnerability and Impact Assessment

24. OMM WMO Risk Identification: Hazard analysis Improved hazard analysis and hazard mapping are needed to be extended to all countries as a tool for risk communication among policy makers and communities. Hazard maps are essential to prepare evacuation efficiently and to allow authorities to adjust land use and city planning. WMO will continue to assist NMHSs in developing and managing climate databases, through the Data Rescue and Climate Database Management Projects.

25. OMM WMO Knowledge Management (1) Many hazards associated with high-impact weather involve smaller-scale atmospheric phenomena, which exhibit still low predictive skills (e.g., localized heavy precipitation) Further improvements in the prediction of high-impact weather and in the full utilization of forecast information WMO’s World Weather Research Programme - support to cooperative international research projects and experiments (e.g. THORPEX) - translate research findings into policy and operational actions for high impact weather phenomena

26. OMM WMO Knowledge Management (2) User education and awareness are essential: to increase weather literacy and interest in meteorological topics to ensure that warnings and forecasts provided by the NMHSs are understood by the intended users to build up a high level of awareness of hazards and preparedness to enable emergency management authorities to make well- informed decisions WMO’s Public Weather Services Programme contributes to this effort for the interpretation of forecasts and warnings

27. OMM WMO Risk Management Applications (1) The Associated Programme on Flood Management Promotes the concept of Integrated Flood Management across sectors Collect case studies and conducts pilot projects to mitigate flood-related disasters and to develop community approaches to flood management. Application of a set of guidelines and best practice for use by NHSs for existing and planned activities in flood management

28. OMM WMO Risk Management Applications (2) WMO’s Agricultural Meteorology Programme Provides guidance on the development of support systems for sustainable land management and agro-climatic zoning with the active participation of the Commission for Agricultural Meteorology.

29. OMM WMO Preparedness and emergency management Timely and accurate forecasts and warnings of natural hazards coupled with adequate local preparedness planning are fundamental requirements for disaster reduction Optimal response to natural disasters requires effective coordination and cooperation between responsible agencies, institutions, officials, the media, political leaders and other players at local, national and international levels WMO will support the NMHSs to establish and enhance partnerships between NMHSs and the national authorities and organizations involved in the natural disaster reduction activities to improve preparedness and emergency planning

30. OMM WMO Governance Support Legislation and adequate normative framework are essential to implement risk management. Political commitment is crucial to allocate the necessary resources. Contributions of NMHSs need to be integrated in national disaster management plans. WMO is supporting NMHSs to promote natural disaster reduction and mitigation as national priority action by the Governments.

31. OMM WMO Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Programme (1) Fourteenth WMO Congress (May 2003) Recognized the significant role WMO and NMHSs play in international disaster reduction activities concerning mitigation of, and preparedness for, natural disasters of meteorological or hydrological origin Decided to initiate a new WMO major programme on Natural Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (building on all relevant WMO Programmes and activities) as a crosscutting programme to enhance international cooperation and collaboration in the field of natural disaster activities

32. OMM WMO Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Programme (2) To develop an effective and efficient mechanism to provide, in an integrated fashion, the WMO response to the requirements and needs of Members and international community concerning disaster reduction in light of related developments To encourage and assist Members in developing/enhancing NMHSs contribution to national disaster preparedness programmes in a more fully integrated manner, especially in coordination with national civil defence/disaster coordination offices

33. OMM WMO Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Programme (3) To ensure that activities and results of relevant WMO Programmes are fully used in the process of the WMO’s participation in the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR) To enhance WMO’s role and recognition as one of the leading international organizations dealing with disaster reduction, in particular through active participation in high-level global fora and related activities

34. OMM WMO International Framework (1) Natural disasters affect all countries, but burden falls disproportionately on developing countries Support to natural disaster reduction is both an issue of sustainable development and a matter of environmental justice requiring international solidarity

35. OMM WMO International Framework (2) ISDR succeeded IDNDR Several significant Declarations, Agendas and Conventions: Millennium Declaration UNFCCC (climate change) UNCCD (desertification) Freshwater Agenda World Summit on Sustainable Development

36. OMM WMO Conclusions (1) Need for an integrated approach National and regional levels Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services Cooperation across disciplines and agencies Links with academic community International level Between IGOs and NGOs concerned Capacity building and transfer of technology activities

37. OMM WMO Conclusions (2) Need for an integrated approach In multiple domains observations communications data processing (incl NWP) … Accross disciplines

38. OMM WMO