1. The Adapting to Rising Tides Project San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission

2. Photo: Ingrid Taylor The goal of the ART project is to increase the preparedness and resilience of Bay Area communities to sea level rise and other climate change impacts while protecting ecosystem and community services. ART Goal

3. Adapting to Rising Tides How will sea level rise and storm events affect the future of Bay Area communities, infrastructure, ecosystems and economy? What approaches can we pursue, both locally and regionally, to assess these challenges, and reduce or manage these risks?

4. ART Objectives Create an integrative (cross-sector and cross-jurisdiction) adaptation planning framework that can be applied in other areas of the Bay region Develop, test, and refine adaptation tools and processes to help the region address climate change Understand how adaptation planning can be scaled to different geographic extents – local, regional, state, federal

5. ART Planning Process

6. ART Assessment Frames  Society and Equity  Economy  Environment  Governance

7. Identify Partners Review Climate Impacts Select Planning Area and Assets Step 1 - Scope & Organize

8. ART Partners ABAG Alameda County Public Works Community Development Public Health Department Transportation Commission BART Bay Institute Bay Trail CA Coastal Conservancy Capitol Corridor JPA City of Alameda City of Emeryville City of Hayward City of Oakland City of San Leandro City of Union City East Bay Dischargers Authority East Bay Municipal Utility District East Bay Regional Park District H.A.R.D. Pacific Institute PG&E Port of Oakland San Francisco Estuary Institute San Francisco Estuary Partnership

9. ART Working Collaborations Active and engaged Working Group plus a Communication and a Technical Subcommittee Working Group Members Provide: Data Judgment Feedback Tools of Collaboration: Small meetings Working group meetings On-line survey Phone interviews Document review

10. ART Climate Impacts More frequent floods Floods that last longer Permanent inundation Shoreline erosion and overtopping Elevated groundwater and salinity

11. ART Project Area 66.7 square miles in Alameda county, including six cities, one unincorporated community, and numerous special districts A diversity of land uses, key regional infrastructure, natural resources and shoreline communities Local interest and capacity

12. ART Asset Categories Airport Community land use, facilities, services Contaminated lands Energy, pipelines and telecom Hazardous material sites Ground transportation Parks and recreation Natural shorelines Seaport Stormwater Structural shorelines Wastewater

13. Impacts, Vulnerability & Risk Step 2 - Assess

14. Assessment Process

15. Impacts Assessment Assess Impacts Local Climate Projections Six future climate scenarios Five potential climate impacts Asset Inventory Twelve asset categories Metrics describing asset specific characteristics Existing Conditions and Stressors Report

16. Summarizing the ART Impact Assessment: The Existing Conditions and Stressors Report Project introduction and background Climate change impacts under consideration Description of assets in each category Existing Conditions

17. Assess Vulnerability Vulnerability is the susceptibility of people, property, and resources to the negative impacts of climate change

18. If exposed, would an asset be physically or functionally impaired? If compromised could it maintain primary function? Could primary function be restored quickly, easily or in a low-cost manner? Assessing Vulnerability

19. What is the magnitude of the expected consequences on:  Society and Equity  Economy  Environment  Governance Assessing Risk

20. Data-driven desktop analysis Stakeholder survey and interviews To help answer Vulnerability and Risk questions: V&R Approach

21. Exposure Analysis Shoreline Study Asset Evaluation Park and Recreation Values Socio-economic Evaluation Equity Approach Data-Driven Desktop Components

22. Used refined sea level rise and storm maps to determine potential asset exposure to:  Tidal inundation (i.e. daily high tide, MHHW)  Storm event flooding (100-year stillwater level)  Wind driven waves during a 100-year storm event Exposure Analysis

23. Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) Key Demographics  Low-income population  Institutionalized population  Linguistically isolated  Renter-occupied  No vehicle Property values (Assessor) Building replacement values (HAZUS) Workplace/Employees (HAZUS) Socio-Economic Evaluation

24. Stakeholder Survey and Interviews Physical and functional sensitivity Adaptive capacity Magnitude of consequence Equity considerations Best Professional Judgment:

25. ART V&R Report Vulnerability & Risk Assessment Report Identifies the underlying causes and components of vulnerability and risk Presents methods, data and findings of the assessment www.adaptingtorisingtides.org

26. Vulnerability & Risk Profile Sheets Includes a Key Issue Statement Identifies timing of the vulnerability and scale of the consequences Classifies the vulnerabilities into actionable categories Describes consequences on people, the economy and ecosystem services Communicating V&R

27. ART Classification People Physical Qualities Ecosystem Services Scale Management Control Information Timing Vulnerability & Risk Adaptation Response Classification used to sort vulnerabilities and risks into actionable categories to support selection of adaptation strategies

28. Developed for four sectors incorporating all twelve asset categories: * Community Land Use * Utilities * Transportation * Shorelines * ART Adaptation Response

29. Issue & Action – describes and classifies the vulnerability and identifies a proposed strategy Effectiveness – identifies how the proposed action addresses the vulnerability Implementation – the how, who and when necessary to implement the action Taken together... Action + Effectiveness + Implementation = Adaptation Response

30.  Highlight key issues in the ART project area  Adequate for certain types of vulnerabilities, e.g., systemic or policy issues  Provides a starting point for other vulnerabilities, e.g., specific or unique assets  Pinpoints the issue of scale – at the ART project scale some strategies are too general ART Adaptation Response

31. Complete the “Plan” Step of the process Develop a portfolio of planning process tools, materials, and lessons learned Continue shoreline park adaptation planning Partner with ABAG on multi-hazard shoreline resilience – initial focus on the Oakland International Airport and Bay Farm Island ART Next Steps

32. Adapting to Rising Tides Lindy Lowe lindyl@bcdc.ca.gov 415-352-3642 Wendy Goodfriend wendyg@bcdc.ca.gov 415-352-3646 Visit the ART project at: www.adaptingtorisingtides.org