1. Nationaal Lucht- en Ruimtevaartlaboratorium – National Aerospace Laboratory NLR European Air Transportation System Safety and Environment Dr. F.J. van Schaik Ir. R. Hogenhuis, Ir. R. Wever

2. 2 Content Approach / EPATS aircraft / EPATS operations Environmental issues Safety issues Recommendations

3. 3 Approach Market study Aircraft designs Safety study Environmental study D3.2 EPATS Airports Requirements including Other info Concepts, US, VLJ

4. 4 EPATS aircraft GNSS / P-RNAV ADS-B ACAS TAWS EFB / Moving Map Weather HUD / SVS / EVS FADEC 2020: about 100.000 a/c

5. 5 EPATS Flight Operations Internet Based Ticketing and Flight Operations Air Taxi / Shared Ownership One day return High reliability, High punctuality Network Centric ATM (SESAR) All weather 24 ops VFR / IFR / SCA (Un)controlled/ Self Controlled

6. 6 Environmental issues Assumptions: 100.000 a/c 2000 airports 365 flights per EPATS a/c per year lead to: –+24000 movements per year (m/y) per airport –Some airports will get 3x more movements –Other airports can’t have more than present day

7. 7 Environmental issues / noise --> Piston/ turbo prop aircraft are preferred for noise --> New aircraft become more and more silent Environmental issues / noise Noise = f (construction date, weight and number of passengers) Aircraft + typeyearMTOWpasrangeLA TOLA APPLA TO corrLA APP corr Cessna Citation Encore (J)1998763411763458.383.054.979.6 Mitsubishi MU300 Diamond I (J)199673947274471.977.270.475.7 Cessna Citation 525 CJ (J)199848535240860.381.760.381.7 Piper PA-42 Cheyenne (TP)197751256-9301570.377.167.774.5 Beech Super King Air B200 (TP)1981567013325168.877.864.773.7 Cessna 421C (P)197631038275661.074.059.072.0 Beech Bonanza A36 (P)197016333-5129167.864.067.864.0 Eclipse 500 (VLJ)200727195240854.972.854.972.8

8. 8 Environmental issues / emissions If bio-fuel is used, CO 2 is compensated, however The total production chain should be taken into account If Hydrogen is used, it will produce water and it is inefficient to make it and it needs heavy tanks Flying below 7 km will reduce water emission negative effect Restricted study

9. 9 Environmental issues / emissions Comparison of Specific Fuel Consumption: (kg. fuel per passenger kilometre) Car load factor 0.3 A/c load factor 0.6 to 0.9 Piston and Turbo are better than jets

10. 10 Safety issues studied Aircraft manufacturing and certification Flight operations Training and qualification Airport and Air Traffic Control Safety programs and Safety oversight

11. 11 Safety issues CS23 is not CS25 100.000 new pilots! Aspects of pilot training, inexperienced pilots Bird and wildlife, de-icing New technology, new ATM concepts like Self Controlled Airspace (Single) pilot operations / communications Controller workload

12. 12 Safety and Environmental conclusions and recommendations (1) / noise Many local airports are noise constraint and the upcoming EPATS might become a problem quickly => Socio - economic impact Local economy might forgive more noise VLJs replacing regular light jets reduce the noise impact Single and twin piston engines and turboprops give better or comparable noise characteristics during approach (comp. to VLJ) VLJ produce less noise during the take-off than conventional jets Engines should become more silent, higher efficiency, new propulsion techniques

13. 13 Safety and Environmental conclusions and recommendations (2) / noise and emissions Development of noise abatement routes, CDA, avoid the night Piston and turboprop engines have lower emissions than VLJs Piston and turboprop a/c are cleaner than VLJ up to 600 km but are slower Increase the load factor (optimisation) Fuel research for low environmental impact ==> It is difficult to predict what is possible ==> Define goals (e.g.) Can we bring/keep the airport noise below that of provincial roads?

14. 14 Safety and Environmental conclusions and recommendations (3) / Safety Are current regulations sufficiently safe for EPATS? R&D in automation supporting safe single pilot operations, flight envelope protection and further automation of flight Single pilot operations and feasibility study of the virtual co- pilot, Single Pilot Resource Management Mentor pilot and scenario based training concepts in EPATS Safe integration of EPATS aircraft in the air transport system of today has to be studied in more detail (impact on ATC and airport) Tailoring and application of commercial aviation safety programs to EPATS operators and outsourcing of safety programs shall be studied

15. 15 Overall recommendations Better EPATS statistics and forecasts needed EPATS will come quietly, so prepare! ATM safety research Environmental friendly procedures Emissions Remote airfields / control / autoland / de-ice Better SESAR for EPATS Single pilot Resource Management / Safety

16. 16 Conclusion Can you do without your PC? No? You also can’t do without your PA!

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18. 18 Safety issues in alphabetical order (1) Clear air turbulence/jet stream core or boundary encounters Convective weather encounters FMS programming and autoflight vs. manual flight control High-altitude upset Inadequate "land and hold short" (LAHSO) preparation Inadequate crosswind takeoff/landing preparation Inadequate exercise of "command" Inadequate knowledge of high-altitude weather Inadequate preparation for high-rate/high-speed climbs Source NBAA

19. 19 Incorrect/less-than-optimum cruise altitude selection Jet blast damage behind larger jets during ground operations Lack of pilot self-evaluations Low-fuel arrivals trying to stretch range Microburst/windshear encounters /Mountain wave encounters Physiological effect of high-altitude operations Recognizing single pilot "red flags" (as an alternative to below) Single pilot adherence to checklists VLJs misunderstood by ATC (pilot mitigations) Wake turbulence encounters Winter operations Safety issues in alphabetical order (2) Source NBAA