1. © University of Missouri-Columbia The Role of Governance Stability in Migration Pamela (Pam) E Kelrick & Tom G. Johnson Liaison officer (Rural Policy Learning Commons) Truman School of Public Affairs University of Missouri-Columbia

2. Governance stability 2 In this study, ‘governance stability’ refers to the quality of political and social functionality in a society.

3. Governance & international migration? Governance institutions are increasingly confronted by emergent influences on international migration Globalization (Grugel and Piper, 2007) Security (Hanson, 2010; Ibrahim, 2005; Taureck, 2006; Weiner 1992) Human rights (Crush 2000; IOM 2009) Climate Change (IOM 2003 #3; UNFPA/IIED 2009) Preferential trade agreements (Orefice, 2012) Yet…the focus has been to explain international migration dynamics in many countries using only economic factors. (Betts 2008) 3

4. Why governance? Inclusive image of a nation and emerging influences Government, strong political influencers, institutions, organizations Sovereignty Nations are the standard political unit to define border security, establish and enforce migration policy National institutions and networks (e.g. unions, trade organizations, military) are stakeholders and influencers Quality barometer National migration policy and regulation is responsive to political and social forces Exploiting the variation of governance may reveal the level of influence (if any) on international migration Accessible and actionable If governance influences migration, then policy implications are accessible and actionable. 4 Not all governance is created equal…great variation exists

5. Governance Stability versus Migration for Countries Worldwide 5 N= 64 N= 49 50 * Using Fund for Peace Stability Index

6. This Study 6 Cross-section time series with random effects to determine the influence of governance stability on immigration and emigration in 30 countries.

7. MODELS & RESULTS 7 Comparison of governance metrics that affect emigration and immigration

8. Data Sources 8 TERMS SOURCES DEPENDENT Emigration per capita UN, Econ and Soc Affairs, Pop Div. Immigration per capita UN, Econ and Soc Affairs, Pop Div. INDEPENDENT Governance Stability Metrics Fund for Peace – 6 variables CONTROL Total labor per capita World Bank Annual data (2006-2009)

9. Governance Stability Metrics FFP Failed States Index Indicator Indicator Description Presence of group grievance History of aggrieved communal groups (past and present); institutionalized political exclusion Legitimacy of the state Level of corrupting activity by elite groups, resistance to transparency Public services Basic services to citizens, including public safety (policing), health, education, sanitation, and transportation Human rights and rule of law Authoritarian, dictatorial or military rule at the expense of democratic institutions and constitutional practices Security apparatus A stable security apparatus operates with a monopoly on the use of legitimate force Factionalized elites Fragmentation of ruling elites and state institutions such that the country leadership does not represent the entire citizenry 9 *Fund for Peace Stability Index 6 of 12 indicators

10. Generic Model 2 Model sets for comparison: Emigration model (6 versions): Y 1 = emigration per capita Immigration model (6 versions): Y 2 = immigration per capita Y it = α + β 1 X it + β 2 X it + β 3 X it + ε it X 1 = lag term (emigration OR immigration) X 2 = governance metric (6 versions from previous slide) X 3 = Total labor per capita ε = error term where i= event and t = year of event - All independent terms are lagged 1 year 10

11. Emigration Model Set 11 MODEL: Human rights and rule of law CoefficientP-value Emigration per capita 0.901 0.000 **** Total labor per capita 0.0010.781 Human rights and rule of law -0.00015 0.036 * R 2 (N=90)0.827 5 models with presence of group grievance, security apparatus, legitimacy of the government, public services, presence of factional elites No governance stability metrics were statistically significant. Emigration per capita was statistically significant in all of these models, with R-sq values = 0.82 Statistical significance * ≤ 0.05, ** ≤ 0.01, *** ≤ 0.001, **** ≤ 0.0001; S.E. robust

12. Immigration Model Set All Models Model aModel bModel cModel dModel eModel f lag immigration per cap 0.788****0.729****0.709****0.739****0.778****0.773**** total labor per capita 0.0171***0.013***0.012**0.016**0.015***0.017**** group grievance -0.0002 legitimacy of the state -0.0003** public services -0.0006** human rights /rule of law -0.0004* security apparatus -.00024** factionalized elites -0.0002* R-sq.789.794.799.795.791 12 Statistical significance * ≤ 0.05, ** ≤ 0.01, *** ≤ 0.001, **** ≤ 0.0001; S.E. robust

13. Summary results – comparison Emigration legitimacy of the state public services human rights /rule of law security apparatus factionalized elites group grievance Immigration legitimacy of the state public services human rights /rule of law security apparatus factionalized elites group grievance 13 * Bold variables were statistically significant

14. Summary results – conclusions Governance stability is important in international migration, but in different ways for emigration and immigration Emigration: lots can and must go wrong before anyone will leave Immigration: many factors are relevant to encourage immigration these factors are all relatively equivalent in influence Follow up: What happens at the subnational scale? Does this dynamic hold for longer periods of time? If we categorized the countries based on ranked stability, would the results look similar? 14

15. Policy implications Managing international migration is not simply an issue of economic condition, regulation, job opportunities, or status. Emigration: governance stability is not particularly influential Other factors (perhaps economic) are more influential Immigration: Governance stability (real or perceived) may be a factor in decision-making Other factors (perhaps economic) are more influential 15

16. Limitations National scale may not be relevant Only four years of available data available (2006- 09) Extrapolation of results to other countries is not advised. Governance is not the same as government Confuses migration policy (national level) with implementation (usually at regional/local level) Measurement error (perpetual nemesis of studying migration) 16

17. © University of Missouri-Columbia Thank you Pamela (Pam) Kelrick Doctoral Student Truman School of Public Affairs Graduate Research Assistant Community Policy Analysis Center (CPAC) Liaison Officer Rural Policy Learning Commons pekz82@mail.missouri.edu Pamela (Pam) Kelrick Doctoral Student Truman School of Public Affairs Graduate Research Assistant Community Policy Analysis Center (CPAC) Liaison Officer Rural Policy Learning Commons pekz82@mail.missouri.edu