1. Transitioning CMAQ for NWS Operational AQ Forecasting Jeff McQueen*, Pius Lee*, Marina Tsildulko*, G. DiMego*, B. Katz* R. Mathur,T. Otte, J. Pleim, J. Young, G. Pouliout, D. Wong, K. Schere(NOAA/ARL/ASMD & EPA) P. Davidson(NWS/OST) * NOAA/NCEP Environmental Modeling Center

2. Operational Requirements Driven by NCEP Operational Meteorological Model (Eta-12) I/O Formats: – Only machine binary, GRIB and BUFR, disk space limitations Time Requirement: – 12 Z 48 hour forecast available by 17:25 Z (1:25 pm EDT) – 06 Z 48 hour forecast available by 13:00 Z ( 9 am EDT) – 65 IBM Power 4 procs available – 12 Z start after Eta is complete (14:30 Z) Robustness: – Thoroughly tested & evaluated with retrospective and real-time experimental runs – Available to NWS Gateway, NDGD: 99% reliability, 24x7 NCEP support – Accuracy: 90% exceedence hit rate

3. Air Quality Forecasting Configuration for Operational Implementation ● NE Domain: 12 km 166x142x22 top at 100 mb ● 48 hour forecasts of ozone (O 3 ) : 06 and 12 UTC runs ✔ Eta-Post corrections to Land-Use, vertical temperature interp ✔ Updated emissions inventories: ✔ Project 2002 point and area source inventories for 2004 ✔ Updated Mobile Emissions using MOBILE6 inventory ✔ Simplified Temperature dependency on mobile emissions ✔ Use of GFS ozone for upper Lateral Boundary Conditions above 6 km ✔ “ Cleaner” chemistry lateral boundary conditions below ✔ 6 hour cycling ✔ Minimum Kz in CMAQ PBL set over rural areas to increase mixing and help reduce O3 overprediction at night (initiated on 7/22/04) ● Real-time Verification ● BUFR O3 and CMAQ output evaluated with VSDB/FVS system

4. Air Quality Forecasting Experimental Expanded Domain Configuration ● Eastern US : 48 hour forecasts of ozone (O 3 ) : 06 and 12 UTC runs ✔ 3x expanded domain (East of Rockies, 268x259x22) run in parallel ✔ Minimum Kz mixing ✔ Transformed grid to reduce interpolation error bet. Eta, emissions processor and CMAQ ✔ Expanded emissions inventories ✔ GFS ozone as upper Lateral Boundary Conditions above 6 km ✔ “ Cleaner” chemistry lateral boundary conditions below (Initiated on 8/3/04) ✔ Additional processors (~65) used ✔ 12 z Available by 17:30 UTC

5. Air Quality Forecasting Research Aerosol Domain Configuration ● Eastern US : 24 hour forecasts of O 3 & Aerosols: 12 UTC run only ✔ Same system as operational except ✔ 3x expanded domain (East of Rockies) run ✔ Began July 16, 12z w/ 24 hr cycling ✔ Expanded emissions inventories ✔ GFS ozone as upper Lateral Boundary Conditions above top 6 km ✔ “ Cleaner” chemistry lateral boundary conditions below ✔ 33 processors on Development Machine (less (less reliability, 8x5) ✔ Available by 21 UTC

6. 00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18 soil ozone Forecast: eta premaq cmaq 6h 48h 20 August 2003: NCO parallel implemented 6h Cycling GRIB output to TOC

7. AIRNOW Ozone obs With wrong land-use  With correct land-use  Land-use Coupling to Eta

8. Eta-Post Temperature Interpolation Error

9. Current Physics Coupling w/ NCEP Eta-12 Current Capability Met Model (Eta, NMM, WRF) AQ Model (CMAQ) Core E gridC Grid Clouds Full Cloud Microphysics Eta cloud water Radiation GFS/NASA RRTMDerived from RH for photolysis PBL Mellor-YamadaPleim-Xu Land Surface NOAH commonEta canopy conductance terms for Pleim-Xu

10. Air Quality Forecasting 2004 User Access ✔ NE Domain (1x, O3) : ✔ Public: NDGD and TOC ftp server ✔ Surface ozone predictions ✔ State Forecasters: HPC web site ✔ Sfc O3 & met plots ✔ Daily (2pm) conference calls ✔ HPC forecasters trained ✔ Focus group: EMC web site ✔ Expanded met plots (pbl hgt, sw rad, ventilation index….) ✔ Sfc & upper level O3 and precurser plots (NOx, NOy,CO,SO2) ✔ ICARRT web page: sfc & UL ozone ✔ Experimental Domain (3x, O3): ✔ Focus group only: EMC Web page

11. Products Predicted Sfc Ozone (1, 8h, max) Eta cloud cover Eta PB L hgt

12. Air Quality Forecasting 2004 Verification (1x and 3x) ✔ NCEP EMC FVS System : ✔ 1 and 8 hour O3 averages ✔ RMSE, Bias, STD, correlation coefficients Time series by fhr and day, subregion ✔ using EPA AIRNOW O3 network began 7/12/04 ✔ FHO contingency exceedence stats (POD, FAR, threat scores) ✔ Began 8/1/04 ✔ NWS/MDL ✔ Daily Spatial obs vs predicted exceedence maps ✔ Contingency exceedence stats since June 1 ✔ NOAA/OAR/EPA ✔ Retrospective evaluations (8/12-19, 2003) ✔ RT:Similar Stats except stations averaged over CMAQ grid points ✔ ICARRT web page: sfc & UL ozone timeseries vs observations

13. NE DOMAIN Retrospective Evaluation Maximum 1 Hr ozone Errors (Aug.12-19,2003) Runs RMSE (ppb) MAGEMNGEMNBMFB MB NMBNMER NO GFS 15.37 11.8121.8511.767.96 4.88 8.1519.710.64 W/ GFS 16.21 12.5923.4514.009.75 6.10 10.1721.000.62 W/ GFS Mobile6 New pt/area 14.50 Final 2004 11.1921.0011.918.36 4.69 7.8318.680.64 LU_flawd (2003 config) 22.84 2003 16.0 26.7630.880.62 LU correct 16.42 7.45 12.4321.040.63

14. Eta Real-Time Verification August 2004 Temperature Downward SW

15. Real-Time Verification EMC FVS time-series binned by FHR RMSE Bias

16. Real-Time Verification EMC FVS 36 h forecast time-series by day RMSE Bias

17. Real-Time Verification EMC FVS forecast by sub-region BIAS 1x vs 3x NE, SE US BIAS 1x vs 3x E. Canada, APL US

18. Real-Time Verification NWS MDL Evaluation Predicted vs Obs Exceedence

19. Summary ● NCEP Currently running 3 systems: ● Operational NE (1x) ● Experimental (3x) ● Research Aerosols (3x) ● Retrospective and real-time results show improvements from 2003: ● Mean daytime bias reduced from ~17 to 5 ppb ● Mean daytime rmse reduced from 22.8 to 14.5 ppb ● However, still general overprediction in day, poorer performance at night

20. FY05 Planned NCEP Runs Production (2x/day to 48 hrs) – Operational: Eastern U.S.(3x) Eta CMAQ-Ozone pending evaluation – Experimental: CONUS Eta/WRF CMAQ Improved Coupling w/ Radiation – Development/Research – Eastern U.S. CMAQ w/WRF coupling – Eastern U.S. retrospective aerosol runs

21. BACKUPS

22. NE DOMAIN Retros. Evaluation 1 Hr Avg ozone Errors (8/12-19, 2003) RMSE Mean Bias

23. ICARRT Evaluation