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Published byHarvey Robbins Modified over 9 years ago
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Is Canada’s Housing Market Overvalued by 30 to 60 per cent? Canada Overvaluation Estimates: Bank of Canada: 10% - 30% Deutsche Bank: 63% Fitch Ratings: 21% IMF: 20% Moody’s Analytics: Less than 15% CMHC: Modestly Ben Myers, Fortress Real Developments | Twitter: @BenMyers29 What you Missed from the BOC Report 1.Simple ratios like price-to-rent are easy to understand but are misleading in a number of ways 2.They concluded that housing has been overvalued since 2007 and has only experienced a modest degree of upward creep since 2009 3.They admitted that their model IGNORES supply! 94% of the top Canadian housing analysts believe these types of studies have no power to predict future price movements
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Risk of overbuilding has subsided Annual Need for New Units in the Toronto CMA TD: 30,000 to 35,000 CMHC: 34,000 Altus: 40,000 Urban Futures: 42,000 to 46,000 Ben Myers, Fortress Real Developments | Twitter: @BenMyers29 GTA Starts, Completions, U/C Down, New Home Sales Up
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Other 2014 Pricing Results [Resale] Brookfield RPS: 13.2% [Resale] Teranet: 7.2% [New] Urbanation: 3.7% - condo only [New] RealNet: 4.1% - condo only Strong GTA Price Growth in 2014, All Forecasts Positive for 2015 Ben Myers, Fortress Real Developments | Twitter: @BenMyers29
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Actually fewer completed and unabsorbed apartment units at year-end 2014 compared to 2013 Ben Myers, Fortress Real Developments | Twitter: @BenMyers29 Completed and Unabsorbed Supply at Long-Run Average
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Average condo rents increasing by 3.4% and 3.5% annually per CMHC & Urbanation respectively since 2011 Investors & foreign buyers not ‘fleeing’ the market Ben Myers, Fortress Real Developments | Twitter: @BenMyers29 Condominium Apartment Rents Remain Positive Despite Additional Supply
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Just 864 starts in 2014, down 87% from 2002 Completions down 79% from 2002 Units under construction down 41% since 2002 Ben Myers, Fortress Real Developments | Twitter: @BenMyers29 Supply of New Housing is Shrinking Drastically in Mississauga
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Singles, Semis & townhouses accounted for 84% of completions between 2000 and 2004 That rate dropped to just 36% between 2010 and 2014. Ben Myers, Fortress Real Developments | Twitter: @BenMyers29 Market Share of Low-Rise Housing is Shrinking
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Singles pricing up around 20% over the past five years. New traditional townhouses in Mississauga are priced at $730,000 on average. Stacked towns are priced at $440,000 on average. Ben Myers, Fortress Real Developments | Twitter: @BenMyers29 Average Price of a New Single-Detached House is $1.2 Million to $1.3 Million in Mississauga South
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Market now sees stacked townhouses as viable and desirable housing type. The 18 sites launched in 2014 are already 68% sold on average! Ben Myers, Fortress Real Developments | Twitter: @BenMyers29 Explosion of GTA Stacked Townhouse Development Launches since 2012
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Vacancy Rate currently sits at just 1.8% In Peel Region average leased condo had rents increase 7.2% in 2014, vacancy rate at 1.2% Ben Myers, Fortress Real Developments | Twitter: @BenMyers29 Apartment Rents have Increased in 22 of the Last 24 Years in Mississauga, Condos getting Big Rent Premium
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