1. Pest Risk Analysis International Plant Protection Convention (IPPC)

2. SPS Definition Risk assessment -- the evaluation of the likelihood of the entry, establishment, or spread of a pest or disease … and the associated potential biological and economic consequences... (SPS Annex A)

3. IPPC Definition The process of evaluating biological or other scientific and economic evidence to determine whether a pest should be regulated and the strength of any phytosanitary measures to be taken against it -- (1997 IPPC)

4. PRA Obligations SPS Article 5.1 -- Members shall ensure that … phytosanitary measures are based on an assessment … of the risks … IPPC Article II -- technically justified (phytosanitary measures) justified on the basis of conclusions reached by using an appropriate pest risk analysis...

5. Standards and PRA Phytosanitary measures must be based on international standards or justified on the basis of PRA (SPS Articles 3 & 5) Deviations from standards must be justified by PRA (SPS Article 5) Provisional (emergency) measures must be reviewed using PRA (SPS Article 5)

6. PRA and Trade Few specific phytosanitary standards have been done, therefore most phytosanitary measures must be justified by PRA PRA is used to: –justify protection measures affecting trade –evaluate or challenge other’s measures –encourage technical dialogue/info sharing –prioritize risk management and research

7. The Role of Scientists Recognize that regulatory policy is dependent on scientific inputs Actively participate, support, and influence regulatory decision-making with trade- sensitive scientific inputs Ensure that plant pests are only a barrier to trade when and where appropriate

8. Evolution of PRA in the IPPC ISPM 2: Guidelines for PRA Supplementary standards –Pest categorization –Probability of introduction –Economic impact –Risk management

9. … And More Evolution Concept standard: Guidelines for PRA (to be revised) Pest Risk Analysis for Quarantine Pests Pest Risk Analysis for Regulated Non-Quarantine Pests Supplementary Standards

10. Stages of PRA Initiation Risk Assessment –probability –consequences Risk Management Transparency –uncertainty

11. Initiation Stage Pest-initiated –detection (interception or incursion) –research or biological control Pathway –commodity evaluation –other regulated article –policy review or change

12. Risk Assessment Stage Presence/absence/distribution Official control Introduction potential Establishment potential Spread potential

13. Elements of Risk Assessment Probability With pathway Escapes detection Survives transit Favorable location Overcomes resistance Able to reproduce and spread Consequences Direct economic Indirect economic Environmental Other: –Political –Social –aesthetic

14. Risk Management Stage Identify options Evaluate options for: – efficacy – feasibility – impacts

15. Transparency Document information sources Identify processes/methods Provide rationale for conclusions/decisions Describe uncertainty and identify data gaps or areas for additional research