1. POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU | www.prb.org Population Growth and Its Implications for Development Carl Haub Senior Demographer Population Reference Bureau Washington, DC Population growth and its implications for ACP rural development CTA, Brussels, 27 January 2010

2. © 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org Contemporary World Population Issues All population growth is now in the poorest countries and areas. Very young age structures in developing countries guarantee this. The situation is most acute in sub-Saharan Africa. As essential as population projections are, their accuracy must be continuously monitored. Extreme aging will place enormous stress upon many industrialized countries’ economies and societies. Low fertility in developed countries presents South-North migration opportunities. Development is often impeded by a lack of reproductive rights. In many ways, population change in the U.S. is not very different from that of Europe.

3. © 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision. Global Population Growth Is Almost Entirely Concentrated in the World's Poorer Countries World Population (in Billions): 1950-2050 Developing Countries Developed Countries Billions Global Population: 1900 = 1.6 Billion 2000 = 6.1 Billion 2011 = 7 Billion

4. © 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org Life Expectancy at Birth (years) The 20th Century Population Explosion Was a Result of the Mortality “Revolution” Source: Costa Rica 1927 and 1950 - CICRED, others UN2006; Sri Lanka: ESCAP Country Monograph up to not incl. 1950, then UN2006 US: up to 1970 Vital Statistics books online; After 1970 NVSR 56:6 page 26

5. © 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org Females Fewer and Fewer Young People and Future Aging Developed Countries by Age and Sex, 2009 Age Millions Males United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision, medium variant

6. © 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org Females Large Numbers of Young People and Large Population Growth Developing Countries by Age and Sex, 2009 Age Millions Males United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision, medium variant

7. © 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org Population Reference Bureau, 2009 World Population Data Sheet Population of the World’s Regions, 2009 and 2050 Projected Millions

8. © 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) Indice synthétique de fécondité (ISF) The TFR is the average number of children a woman would bear in her lifetime if the birth rate of a particular year were to remain constant.

9. © 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org How Are Projections Made? The United Nations assumes that birth rates will decline so that all developing countries will eventually average a European-like 1.85 children per woman. That assumption is entirely dependent upon the additional assumption that the use of family planning will rise to the same level as that in Europe and North America, which the UN is very careful to point out.

10. © 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org NigeriaJapan Population 2009 (millions) 153 128 Population 2050 (millions) 285 95 Lifetime Births per Woman 5.7 1.4 Annual Number of Births 6,200,000 1,100,000 Percent of Population Below Age 15 45 13 Percent of Population Age 65+ 3 23 Life Expectancy at Birth 47 83 Infant Deaths per 1,000 Births 75 2.6 Annual Number of Infant Deaths 465,000 2,900 Percent of Adults with HIV/AIDS 3.1 - The “Demographic Divide” The Example of Nigeria and Japan 2009 World Population Data Sheet

11. © 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org Lifetime children per woman Fertility Decline in Bangladesh and the United States, 1800 - 2006 Two Very Different Histories Population Reference Bureau, NCHS, DHS surveys

12. © 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org United Nations, World Population Prospects, the 2009 Revision and 2009 World Population Data Sheet

13. © 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org Sample Registration System

14. © 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org Lifetime children per woman Demographic and Health Surveys and Statistics South Africa

15. © 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org Demographic and Health Surveys Use of Modern Contraception (Clinic and Supply Methods), mid-1990s and Most Recent TFRs=3.2/2.44.1/3.36.1/6.24.8/4.06.9/6.76.1/5.25.2/4.0 % of Married women, ages 15-49

16. © 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org Demographic and Health Surveys “Unmet Need” for Family Planning, Percent of Married/in Union Women TFR= 2.43.36.24.06.75.24.0

17. © 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org Demographic and Health Survey * Question asked of husbands

18. © 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org UNAIDS and Demographic and Health Surveys HIV Prevalence Before and After Nationally-representative Surveys Were Taken, Selected sub-Saharan African Countries, 2003-2006 Percent of adult population

19. © 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org United Nations Population Division, World Urbanization Prospects, The 2007 Revision. Future World Population Growth Will Be in Places Defined by Countries as “Urban” While Rural Places Decline World Population (in Billions): 1950-2050 Urban Rural Billions

20. © 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org What Are Urban Places? ArgentinaPopulated centers with 2,000 or more CanadaPlaces of 1,000 or more* China Cities designated by the State Council and other places with density of 1,500 or more per sq. km.* India Specified towns with governments and places with 5,000 or more and at least three-fourths of the male labor force not in agriculture* JapanCities (shi) with 50,000 or more* MaldivesMalé, the capital MexicoLocalities of 2,500 or more NigerCapital city and department and district capitals New ZealandCities, towns, etc. with 1,000 or more NorwayLocalities of 200 or more PeruPopulated centers with 100 or more dwellings SenegalAgglomerations of 10,000 or more United StatesPlaces of 2,500 or more, urbanized areas of 50,000 or more* *There are some additional requirements regarding population size, population density and specified urban characteristics

21. © 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org Distribution of Population by Size, of Village, Town, or City, India, 2001 2001 Census of India

22. © 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org Uttar Pradesh Bihar Kerala Population 2001 (millions) 166 83 32 Population 2010 200 99 34 Literacy Male/Female (%) 69/42 60/33 94/88 Lifetime Births per Woman 2007 3.9 3.9 1.7 Modern Contraceptive Prev. ’05-06 29 29 58 Traditional Contra. Prev. ’05-06 14 5 11 Urban Population (%) 21 11 26 Percent of Population < Age 15 41 42 26 Households with Electricity (%) 32 10 70 Households in Permanent-type House 53 41 68 Households with Television 25 9 39 Households with Car, Jeep, or Van 2.2 0.9 4.0 Households with Two-wheeler 3.6 10.4 10.0 Households in One-room House 30 43 11 Percent of Children <3 Underweight 47 58 29 2001 Census of India, National Family Health Survey-3, Sample Registration System, PRB projections The “Demographic Divide” in Three States of India

23. © 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org Households by Annual Income Groups, India, 2001-2002 National Council of Applied Economic Research, Delhi, 2005

24. © 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org National Statistical Offices Thousands Annual Net Immigration, 1990 - 2009, Selected Countries

25. © 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org United Nations, International Migrant Stock, the 2008 Revision

26. © 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org United Nations, International Migrant Stock, the 2008 Revision

27. © 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org World Bank, Migration Working Group

28. © 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org World Bank, Migration Working Group

29. © 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org Total Fertility Rates, Selected EU 15 Countries and the U.S., 1960 - 2008 Council of Europe, Recent demographic developments in Europe and national statistics websites Children per woman

30. © 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org Total Fertility Rates, Selected New EU Countries, 1960 - 2008 Council of Europe, Recent demographic developments in Europe and national statistics websites Children per woman

31. © 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org Females Population of Japan by Age and Sex, 1 December, 2009 Japan Statistics Bureau Age Millions Males

32. © 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org Females Population of Russia by Age and Sex, 1 January, 2009 State Statistical Bureau (GOSKOMSTAT) Age Millions Males

33. © 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org Eurobarometers, 56.2 and 65.1 Average “Personal Ideal“ Number of Children, 2001 and 2006, Females Ages 15 - 24

34. © 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org Eurobarometer, 56.2 Percentage of Women, Ages 18-34 Giving “None” or “One” as Their Ideal Number of Children, Selected Countries of Europe. 2001

35. © 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org

36. U.S. White non-Hispanic Population by Age and Sex, 2006

37. © 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org Females U.S. Hispanic Population by Age and Sex, 2006 U.S. Census Bureau Age Percent Males

38. © 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org U.S. National Center for Health Statistics and U.K. Office of National Statistics

39. © 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org U.S Census Bureau Components of U.S. Population Growth by Ethnic Group, 2007 - 2008 Millions

40. © 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org The Association Between Poverty and Fertility, 2007 % Living below $2 per day Average number of children per woman Population Reference Bureau, Population and Economic Development Linkages 2007

41. © 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org The Association Between Population Growth Rate and GDP Growth Annual population growth rate, 1975 - 2004 (%) Average annual GDP per capita growth rate, 1975 - 2004 (%) Population Reference Bureau, Population and Economic Development Linkages 2007

42. © 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org Thank You! carlh@prb.org