1. THE HUMAN POPULATION
Chapter 5 Chapter 6

2. Population Explosion > 1800’s – slow growth
1830 – 1 billion Time needed to add 1 billion
1930 – 2 billion 100 years
1960 – 3 billion 30 years
1975 – 4 billion 15 years
1987 – 5 billion 12 years
1999 – 6 billion 12 years
2011 – 7 billion (?) years
For information purposes only

3. POPULATION GROWTH THROUGH HISTORY12 11
2100 10 9
Modern
Age 8
Old
Stone
Bronze
Iron
Middle
Age
New Stone Age
Age
Age
Ages 7 6
2000
Future 5 4
1975 3
1950 2
1900 1
Black Death —
The Plague
1800
1+ million
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
A.D.
A.D.
A.D.
A.D.
A.D.
A.D.
years
B.C.
B.C.
B.C.
B.C.
B.C.
B.C.
B.C. 1
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
Source: Population Reference Bureau; and United Nations, World Population Projections to 2100 (1998).

4. Major Human Ages Hunter-gatherer 100,000-10,000 years ago
Agricultural Era 10,000 – 1700’s
Industrial Revolution
Early mid 1700’s
Modern – present

5. Is it due to an increase in birth rate?
The world population has been growing rapidly over the past 100 years. Why?
Is it due to an increase in birth rate?
Is it due to a decrease in death rate?
Is it due to longer life expectancy?
Is it a combination of these factors?
The answers to this question can be found by studying demography – to be examined later

6. Glossary Look up these terms and understand their meaning
Define the following terms:
Birth Rate (BR)
Death Rate (DR)
Rate of Natural Increase (RNI)
BR – DR
Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
Infant Mortality
Life Expectancy
Doubling time
GNI PPP per capita and GNP
Replacement level fertility (RLF)

7. World Economic Divisions
Low-income countries GNI < $766
Middle-income countries GNI $766-$9385
High-income countries GNI >$9385
More Developed countries (Developed) – High-income
Less Developed countries (Developing) – Low and Middle income
GNI = Gross National Income

8. Two Worlds – Developed World
18% of world’ population
wealthy nations - use 80% of world’s resources
affluence – over consumption
slow or no population growth
high per person environmental impact
I = P.A.T

9. Two Worlds – Developing World
82% of world’ population
Low and middle-income nations - use 20% of world’s resources
28% (1.5 billion people) of the population of developing world live on
rapid population growth
low per person environmental impact
28% live on less than $1/day

10. World Population - 2007 Population Size Rate of Natural Increase Total
Population Size
Rate of Natural Increase
Total
Fertility rate
World
6.6 billion
1.2%
2.7
More Developed Countries
1.2 billion
0.1%
1.6
Less Developed Countries
5.3 billion
1.5%
2.9
Less Developed Countries (excluding China)
4.0 billion
1.8%
3.3

11. Examine the “2007 World Population Data Sheet”
Examine the “2007 World Population Data Sheet” . Print a copy of the 2007 Data Sheet pdf file (I gave you a copy of this).
How do BR, DR, TFI, Life expectancy etc. differ in the More Developed and Less Developed World?

12. 18% of the world’s population live in developed world, 82% in less developed world.
76 million people added to the world population per year.
98% of population growth is occurring in developing countries. Why?

13. Quality of Life Indicators
The United Nations rates a countries Human Development Index (HDI) (external link) on the basis of the following quality of life indicators:
Life expectancy - living a long and healthy life
Adult literacy rate and
Purchasing power parity, PPP - having a decent standard of living (measured by, income).
These factors gives insight into the ability of population to take care of itself.
A low income society will not have the money (GNI) to spend on food, shelter jobs and health care which affects the Infant Mortality Rate and Life Expectancy.

14. Basic indicators, 2007 Country Infant Mortality Rate Life Expectancy
Basic indicators, 2007  
Country
Infant Mortality Rate
Life Expectancy
Per Capita GNI (2006)
US$
India 54 64
$3,800
Kenya 77 53
$1,300 
China 25 72
$7,730  
Brazil 27
$8,800  
United States
6.5 78
$44,260
Japan
2.8 82
$33,730  
Ireland
3.8
$35,540  
Examine the trend, there is no need to memorize the numbers

15. Replacement level fertility (RLF)
2.03 for developed countries
2.16 for developing countries
Currently
More developed countries TFR = 1.6
Less developed countries (ex. China) TFR = 3.3

16. Fertility Declines in Selected Countries
Examine the trend, there is no need to memorize the numbers
Fertility Declines in Selected Countries
Total fertility Rates
Country      
China
6.0
2.4
1.6
Mexico
7.2
3.8
Brazil
6.2
3.4
2.3
Indonesia
5.6
3.5
India
4.3
2.9

17. Population Increase and Growth Rate, Five-Year Periods
Percent increase per year
Millions
This figure illustrates the lag between changes in the rate of growth and the net increase in population per year.
Over the period , the population growth rate declined (a reflection of declining fertility), yet millions of people were added to the world’s population (which peaked around 1985, when 87 million people were added each year).
From 2000 on, the growth rate will continue to decline. Between 2015 and 2020, we will still be adding 72 million people each year. Why? Because the generation of women now having their children is very large as the result of high fertility in their mothers’ and grandmothers’ generations.
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.

18. Quality of Life
What are the effects of population growth on the quality of life in the developing world?
Poverty
Malnutrition
Unsafe water
Diseases
Lack of housing
Undermines economic growth
Environmental degradation
Use the text to examine these factors

19. What options are available to rural poor ?
Over-cultivation – soil erosion
Farm marginal land
Illegal activities (poaching, drugs, prostitution)
Rural to urban movement - Urban ghettos
Emigration – legal or illegal

20. Urbanization 15 megacities (>10 million) in developing world
Largest Urban Agglomerations, 1950, 2000,                                                                                                                                                          Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects, The 1999 Revision.
15 megacities (>10 million) in developing world

21. The poorest of the poor 1.5 billion people live on<$1/day Lack:
adequate food
decent housing
jobs
health care
results in high infant/child mortality and low life expectancy
resort to illegal activities, scavenging, begging, prostitution, illegal immigration
UN Millenium Development Goals

22. Absolute Poverty
About 1.5 billion people (about 1 person in 4) lives in “absolute poverty”
Robert McNamara, former president of the World Bank defines this as
“A condition of life so limited by malnutrition, illiteracy, disease, squalid surroundings, high infant mortality, and low life expectancy as to be beneath any reasonable definition of human decency.”

23. Environmental Effects
What are the effects of population growth on the environment?
Soil erosion
Poaching
Loss of species
Desertification
Air/water pollution
Examine how overpopulation affects these factors

24. Affluence
High consumption of food, lumber, nonrenewable resources (minerals, oil)
USA – highest per person consumption of resources
High pollution – CO2 , hazardous air and water pollutants
Impact on developing countries -tropical forests (lumber), minerals, oil exported.

25. Demography - Population Profile
A population profile is a bar graph which shows:
The number or percentage of males and females at each age group in a population.
Can be used to estimate the future growth of a population.

26. Demography
The study of populations, their composition and predictions of future change.
Demographer - a person who studies populations and population change over time.

27. Example

28. % Natural Increase is determined by the difference between birth rate and death rate.
Population Growth is determined by the difference between birth rate plus immigration and death rate plus emigration.
Net Migration rate - # of people entering or leaving the population per A + sign indicated net addition of migrants, a – sign indicated net removal of migrants.

29. BR = 39, DR = 21, % Nat. Increase = 2. 1% , Growth Rate = 1
BR = 39, DR = 21, % Nat. Increase = 2.1% , Growth Rate = 1.8%, TFR = 5.3, Net Migration = unavailable
This population is undergoing rapid population growth – pyramid shaped profile

30. Populations with wide bases tend to be “young populations” – have a large number of people below age 15.
Have great momentum for future growth as the large number of young will soon enter their reproductive years.

31. BR = 14, DR = 8, % Nat. Increase = 0. 6%, Growth Rate =0. 9%, TFR = 2
BR = 14, DR = 8, % Nat. Increase = 0.6%, Growth Rate =0.9%, TFR = 2.1, Net Migration = 3
This population is undergoing slow population growth – notice the base is about the same width as the middle section (15-65 year olds)

32. BR = 10, DR = 14, % Nat. Increase = -0. 5%, Growth Rate = -0
BR = 10, DR = 14, % Nat. Increase = -0.5%, Growth Rate = -0.8%, TFR = 1.4, Net Migration = - 4
This population is undergoing population shrinkage or negative population growth. Notice the base is smaller than the middle population (15-65 year old) group.

33. Populations with narrow bases are producing few young
Populations with narrow bases are producing few young. Their TFR has been below 2.0 for several years.
These populations are shrinking
may not have enough workers to support dependants in the future.
Many countries of western Europe are shrinking (negative percent natural increase)
may encourage their populations to reproduce and/or open their borders to more immigrant workers.

34. Predictions vs. Projections
In the past, demographers have been incorrect in their predictions.
Fertility rates have declined faster than were expected.
They now make projections – low, medium, high.
Source: United Nations Population Division, 2003