1. 1 Data mining of the UN Comtrade database in cooperation with Customs Ronald Jansen Chief of the Trade Statistics Branch United Nations Statistics Division / DESA E-mail: Jansen1@un.org orJansen1@un.org BigData@un.org

2. 2 Matching Imports and Exports Data

3. Reason for bilateral trade asymmetries o Country of Origin /Country of Destination  Adding Country of consignment o Valuation CIF /FOB  Imports and Exports FOB o Trade System  General Trade System for all 3

4. Country of Origin / Destination 4 China (A) Hong Kong (B) Netherlands (C) Germany (D) D records Imports of A (country of origin) C records Imports of A B records Imports of A Re-exports to C Re-exports to D A records exports to B

5. Country of Consignment 5 China (A) Hong Kong (B) Netherlands (C) Germany (D) D records Imports of C C records Imports of B B records Imports of A Re-exports to C Re-exports to D A records exports to B

6. Imports CIF / FOB Three Methods to obtain Imports FOB: 1. Recording of Cost, Insurance and Freight per transaction 2. Recording of Cost, Insurance and Freight per Shipment (and partition) 3. Sample Freight and Insurance by HS, Partner country and Mode of Transport and use to adjust CIF to FOB 6

7. Trade System  A 2006 global survey showed that 50% of countries use General Trade system and 50% Special Trade system  Difference in coverage (free zones, customs warehousing, processing zones) will lead to discrepancies in recording  All countries encouraged to record all elements of General Trade system (even in addition to Special) 7

8. Harmonization Process (M=X) 1. Reconciliation exercises – finding common ground 2. Reconciling large trade (Chatham House) 3. Use of imports (origin) as breakdown for partner exports 4. Estimation methods (USITC) 5. Customs interest in solving discrepancies 8

9. 9 SAS Visual Analytics for UN Comtrade

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21. 21 UN Comtrade in the Sandbox

22. 22 Comtrade in the Sandbox  UNECE Big Data Project – Results by November 2015  Available data – 2000-2014 annual HS and Tariff line data  IT specialists – ISTAT, Statistics Netherlands, UNSD, OECD  Proposals – Regional Value Chain analysis, Trade asymmetries, Unit-value indices calculations, Trade flow estimations (missing data and forecasting)

23. 23 Regional Value Chain analysis  Replicating – Network Analysis of World Trade (De Benedictis et al., 2013) a)Global and local centrality measures b)Sectoral Trade Networks Commodities? (Bananas; Olive Oil [Casieri et al.]) Industries? (DeBacker & Miroudot; Sturgeon & Memedovic) c)Restricting to Intermediate Goods trade d)Focusing on Geo-graphical groups  Building on “Mapping Global Value Chains” a)Intra- versus Extra-group trade in intermediate goods  Building on OECD work on “Regional economic integration” - Yamano et al; DeBacker and Miroudot; a)International I-O approach

24. 24 Trade Networks  Commodities o Bananas, Cement, Movies, Oil, Footwear, Engines (De Benedictis) o Olive Oil (Casieri)  Industries o Agriculture and Food, Chemical products, Motor vehicles, electronics, business services, financial services (DeBacker & Miroudot) o Electronics, Passenger vehicles, Apparel (Sturgeon & Memedovic) o CGGC Duke: Electronics, Aerospace, Medical Devices, Horticulture, Wheat, Fruit and vegetables,

25. Project added-value Industry Mapping o GVC Mapping o ISIC sectors (TiVA) o Other? BEC and intermediate goods o BEC Revision 5 – Split of Economic Categories and End-use; Goods and Services; differentiating within Intermediate goods – generic and specific intermediates Estimating missing trade flows Analyzing bilateral trade asymmetries

26. 26 Thank you Ronald Jansen Chief of the Trade Statistics Branch United Nations Statistics Division / DESA E-mail: Jansen1@un.org orJansen1@un.org BigData@un.org