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GINA WP 4.2 Business and Exploitation Plan May 3 rd 2011 GNSS for INnovative Road Applications.

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Presentation on theme: "GINA WP 4.2 Business and Exploitation Plan May 3 rd 2011 GNSS for INnovative Road Applications."— Presentation transcript:

1 GINA WP 4.2 Business and Exploitation Plan May 3 rd 2011 GNSS for INnovative Road Applications

2 GNSS for Innovative road Applications Company’s logo Content Introduction & Business model definition Addressable market and market potential General Cost Structure Business Case Scenarios Business Segment stand-alone scenario Business + Private Segments scenario Page 203/05/2011GINA D4.4 – Business and exploitation plan

3 GNSS for Innovative road Applications Company’s logo European Commission Push for interoperability and EETS The European Council and Parliament are developing a strategy for interoperability by establishing the European Electronic Tolling Service (EETS) and supporting pan-European research projects (i.e. CESARE, RCI) involving major stakeholders Interoperability Directive 52/ EC (2004) Commission Decision 750/CE (2009) CESARE I-IV RCI (Road Charging Interoperability) GNSS - Satellite positioning (Preferred) DSRC - 5.8 GHz microwave technology One OBU – One Contract for all EETS Road domains Non-discriminatory EETS Provider access to all EETS domains No additional toll Complementary to actual electronic toll services No physical barriers Separation of roles between Toll Chargers and Service Providers Main References Technologies EETS Key Elements EETS Key Elements Timetable Mid-2012 for >3,5 tons vehicles (i.e. Trucks, Buses, etc.) Mid 2014 for other vehicles (i.e. Cars, Light Commercial Vehicles, etc.) Page 303/05/2011GINA D4.4 – Business and exploitation plan

4 GNSS for Innovative road Applications Company’s logo Pan-European supporting projects - Cesare IV Framework Within CESARE project a basic EETS framework has been modelled and the roles of the four main actors (Toll Chargers, EETS Service Provider, EETS Service Users and Interoperability Management) have been defined Page 403/05/2011GINA D4.4 – Business and exploitation plan

5 GNSS for Innovative road Applications Company’s logo GINA EETS Business Model – Service vs Economic Flows EGNOS/GALILEO OPERATING COMPANY EETS PAN-EUROPEAN SERVICE PROVIDER OPERATING COMPANY GNSS SERVICE PROVIDER Guaranteed service END USER/CUSTOMER (Private + Business) Service bundle Service fee Fee per bundle TOLL CHARGER 1, 2…N CONTENT PROVIDER TELCO % Fee on toll collected Toll Collected Payment for usage INFRASTRUCURE OWNER PUBLIC INSTITUTIONS Service/product flows Economic flows Fee per Add-on Add-on Service Toll Collected The EETS Service Provider has a key role as it is the link between all the players along the Value Chain and it is involved in all economic and service exchanges Page 503/05/2011GINA D4.4 – Business and exploitation plan

6 GNSS for Innovative road Applications Company’s logo GINA Offer structure Consumer Business Basic Package Add- On HW Services Smart OBU without GUI Wireless GUI EFC E-CALL EFC E-CALL Fleet Management/ Basic Fleet Management/ Tracking and Tracing Theft management Traffic info system Navigation services/ active re-routing HW Services GINA Service Provider offer has been structured as: -a set of services offered in a bundle solution to maximize service usage and market penetration -a set of add-on services that can be purchased separately Two customer segments have been identified: business (i.e. commercial vehicles) and consumer (i.e. passenger cars) Page 603/05/2011GINA D4.4 – Business and exploitation plan Theft management Traffic info system Navigation services/ active re-routing

7 GNSS for Innovative road Applications Company’s logo Content Introduction & Business model definition Addressable market and market potential General Cost Structure Business Case Scenarios Business Segment stand-alone scenario Business + Private Segments scenario Page 703/05/2011GINA D4.4 – Business and exploitation plan

8 GNSS for Innovative road Applications Company’s logo Addressable end-user market For the addressable end-user market the Business Case has analysed the last available data relevant to the European market of cars, buses, light commercial vehicles, light, medium and heavy trucks, using CAGR of the last 4 years to project data The analysis took into consideration all the countries belonging to EU27. Page 803/05/2011GINA D4.4 – Business and exploitation plan

9 GNSS for Innovative road Applications Company’s logo Forecast for circulating cars in Europe (2010-2030) EU 27 cars market expected to increase from 244 Mln in the 2010 to 298 Mln in the 2030 with a CAGR around 1% Relative weight of the first 7 countries (Germany, Italy, France, GB, Spain, Poland, Netherlands) out of the total EU market is almost constant around 75% Page 903/05/2011GINA D4.4 – Business and exploitation plan

10 GNSS for Innovative road Applications Company’s logo Forecast for circulating LCV, Trucks and Buses in Europe (2010-2030) EU 27 commercial vehicles and trucks market expected to increase from 36 Mln in the 2010 to 48 Mln in the 2030 with a CAGR around 1,5% Relative weight of the first 7 countries (Germany, Italy, France, GB, Spain, Poland, Netherlands) out of the total EU market is almost constant around 70% Page 1003/05/2011GINA D4.4 – Business and exploitation plan

11 GNSS for Innovative road Applications Company’s logo Actual European toll collection market Source: ASECAP National Reports European toll collection market is ~€23B and Western European account for over 90% of the total collection Despite that, road pricing schemes are expected to spread rapidly all around EU due to: -Growing mobility needs -Inability of many government to finance additional road infrastructure -Increasing concerns over the environmental impact of road transport -Need for a better and more efficient use of existing infrastructure Page 1103/05/2011GINA D4.4 – Business and exploitation plan

12 GNSS for Innovative road Applications Company’s logo European toll collection forecast (2010-2030) Annual toll collection revenues have been projected along the Business Case according to actual road charging scheme trends and upcoming projects All EU27 countries RUC scheme where analysed in depth in order to take into account all country peculiarities Source: ASECAP National Reports, Toll Road News, Euromonitor, GINA project analysis Page 1203/05/2011GINA D4.4 – Business and exploitation plan

13 GNSS for Innovative road Applications Company’s logo European Electronic Toll Collection (ETC) products and services market Source: GIA Report, Company Annual Reports, IBTTA, ASECAP Companies with operations in many geos Annual ETC revenue (2008) European Electronic Tolling products and services market is ~€1.4B and highly fragmented Page 1303/05/2011GINA D4.4 – Business and exploitation plan

14 GNSS for Innovative road Applications Company’s logo Prominent European ETC vendors AlcatelIN Autostrade260Italy Ascom35France BouyguesFrance CapitaUK Cofiroute60Germany, France, US CS41France Efkon100Several Egis107Several Eurotoll85France, Spain GEA60Primarily France GMVSpain IBMSweden Kapsch250Several Peek Traffic BVEastern Europe Q-FREE80Norway SanefFrance SercoUK SICE60Spain, S. Africa Siemens AG120Several T-Systems230Germany Tecsidel23Spain Telvent250Several ThalesFrance, UK Indra120Spain, Latin America Vendor Est. ETC global revenue ($M) Main location Lane Maint. Hardware Back Office Page 1403/05/2011GINA D4.4 – Business and exploitation plan

15 GNSS for Innovative road Applications Company’s logo Urban Road Charging fee collection estimation (2010-2030) Introduction of Urban Road Charging Scheme in all cities above 1M inhabitants Growth of actual Urban Road Charging Scheme Progressive Introduction of Urban Road Charging Scheme in the remaining TOP 50 European cities Perpetuity Growth Urban Charging fee collection revenues of EU-27 Top-50* cities have been estimated starting from the ones of currently in place UC scheme (i.e. London, Milan, Stockholm) and adjusting them proportionally to population *EU-27 Top-50 cities have been selected according to population and traffic index (Tom Tom data) EU-27 Top-50 cities URC Collection Page 1503/05/2011GINA D4.4 – Business and exploitation plan

16 GNSS for Innovative road Applications Company’s logo Content Introduction & Business model definition Addressable market and market potential General Cost Structure Business Case Scenarios Business Segment stand-alone scenario Business + Private Segments scenario Page 1603/05/2011GINA D4.4 – Business and exploitation plan

17 GNSS for Innovative road Applications Company’s logo GINA Telecommunication costs - Main assumptions *General public offers scaled down starting from offers with data allowance as close as possible to the defined communication range (100- 500 MB/month) Telco Requirements Costs Future Trends Telco costs stable along the BP time horizon: cost would not be decrease significantly, rather than maximum data cap would increase rapidly Roaming The communication channel among the OBUs and the Central IT Infrastructure will be done by GPRS/UMTS: RUC data reports will be sent daily to optimizes bandwidth and server usage The communication requirement range for the basic package have been assumed around 100 MB/month for both the consumer and the business segment International roaming costs declining along the BP time horizon from 5 to 3 times the cost of national services Average roaming percentage weight: -Consumer segment: 10% -Business segment: 20% Communication prices per country, based on currently offered mobile broadband services*, with a 40% discount achievable thanks to proper negotiation and business agreements Further 40% discount for private segment versus business segment Page 1703/05/2011GINA D4.4 – Business and exploitation plan

18 GNSS for Innovative road Applications Company’s logo European mobile broadband services prices COUNTRY>OPERATORNAME OF PLAN 100 MB €/MONTH AUSTRIAT-MOBILEFAIRCLICK BASIC3,0 BELGIUMMOBISTARINTERNET EVERYWHERE MAX1,5 CZECH REP.T-MOBILEINTERNET BASIC1,0 FRANCE BOUYGUES TELECOMFORFAIT PC INTERNET MOBILE4,5 SFRFORFAIT AJUSTABLE4,9 GERMANY T-MOBILEWEB'N'WALK CONNECT M8,4 VODAFONE D2MOBILE CONNECT VOLUME L6,7 O2MOBILE DATENTARIFE INTERNET PACK5,0 GREECEPANAFON (VODAFONE)VODAFONE MOBILE BROADBAND VMC2506,0 HUNGARYVODAFONEVODAFONE INTERNET 1G1,3 IRELANDVODAFONE IRELANDVODAFONE MOBILE BROADBAND1,5 ITALYVODAFONE OMNITELMOBILE BROADBAND2,5 NETHERLAN DS T-MOBILEMOBIEL BREEDBAND BUSINESS3,5 VODAFONE LIBERETELDATA-ABONNEMENTEN NATIONAAL PLUS4,0 POLAND CENTERTEL (ORANGE)ORANGE FREE STANDARD1,8 POLKOMTEL/PLUS GSMIPLUS PRYWATNIE 601,8 PORTUGAL TMN (TELEMOVEL)BANDA LARGA LIGHT2,2 OPTIMUSKANGURU BASIC2,2 SLOVAK REP. ORANGE SLOVENSKOMOBILNÝ ORANGE INTERNET1,2 T-MOBILE SLOVAKIARÝCHLY INTERNET 21,2 SPAIN AMENA/ORANGETARIFA INTERNET EVERYWHERE2,9 TELEFONICA MOVILESTARIFA PLANA INTERNET3,5 VODAFONE ESPANATARIFA NAVEGA MINI2,2 SWEDENSVENSKA UMTS-NATMOBILT BRETBAND MIDI1,0 UK ORANGEMOBILE BROADBAND1,9 T-MOBILE UKMOBILE BROADBAND1,9 VODAFONEMOBILE BROADBAND1,9 AVERAGE2,9 Note: data refers to mobile broadband services via USB modem / PCMI card since any add-ons for voice communications is required Actual mobile broadband costs vary from 1,0 € to 8,4 € across different EU-27 countries, with an average of 2,9€ Page 1803/05/2011GINA D4.4 – Business and exploitation plan BACKUP

19 GNSS for Innovative road Applications Company’s logo GINA OBU related costs - Main assumptions OBU+Install Cost Evolution (Business Segment) OBU & Installation Financing Assistance The OBU purchase cost and all the costs related to installation and assistance would be included in the basic package OBU cost for business segment, installation included, assumed to be 160€ in 2015 (starting from 220€ in 2012), declining to 80€ in 2030 following an exp-curve: -Costs are highly affected by scale economies -Installation costs (actually around 50€/OBU) would be drastically reduced in case of partnership with vehicles manufacturers OBU cost for consumer segment, assumed to be 45€ in 2018 (starting from 90€ in 2012), declining to 30€ in 2030 following an exp-curve; installation costs in this case have not been considered since the OBU has been assumed “plug & play” type, much simpler than the business segment type OBU + Install costs assumed to be sustained through a “leasing like” purchasing, -10% interest rate -5 years leasing duration, after 5 years the OBU would be completely renewed Assistance costs for fixing troubles with OBU assumed to be equal to 30% the annual leasing fee Page 1903/05/2011GINA D4.4 – Business and exploitation plan OBU+Install Cost Evolution (Consumer Segment)

20 GNSS for Innovative road Applications Company’s logo GINA Architecture Overview Central IT Infrastructure Vehicles Users Vehicles Users OBU Content Provider 1 Content Provider 2 Content Provider 3 Content Provider n RUC & Service Users (e.g. Motorway Companies, Municipalities, Insurances companies) GINA Core IT Infrastructure Service Center 1 Service Center 2 Service Center 3 Service Center n GINA EETS Service Provider External Entities GINA core IT infrastructure is composed by two main blocks: -the Central IT Infrastructure -the Service Centers These tow blocks are the key elements for determining both Capital Expenditure profile and Operating Expenses profile Page 2003/05/2011GINA D4.4 – Business and exploitation plan

21 GNSS for Innovative road Applications Company’s logo GINA Opex & Capex profile estimation For both Opex and Capex a stepwise evolution profile has been assumed, reflecting the progressive penetration in different areas According to the defined penetration plan three main phases have been identified: Phase II Phase III Phase I Investments and operating costs to support the service provision to the business segment in Area 1 (Central Southern Europe) Investments and operating costs to support the service provision to business and private segment in Area 4 (Eastern Europe) and Area 5 (Mediterranean Island) in addition to Area 1 Investments and operating costs to support the service provision in Area 2 and Area 3 (Benelux & Great Britain) (Northern Europe) in addition to Area 1, Area 4 & Area 5 Page 2103/05/2011GINA D4.4 – Business and exploitation plan

22 GNSS for Innovative road Applications Company’s logo GINA Opex & Capex - Main Assumptions Opex Launch on the market for Business segment on 2015 Architecture upgrades driven by penetration plan 1 years prior to each architecture upgrade, 50% of the upgraded architecture on- going costs shall be supported to prepare the go-live During the launch year for each phase additional launch costs shall be supported Opex reduction for the business segment stand-alone scenario equal to 40% (not applied for core IT infrastructure Phase 1) Depreciation On-going investment Launch/ Upgrades Investment Hardware: 5 years Software: 3 years Other material: 5 years Other not material: 15 years 33% of investments have to be supported two years ahead GINA SP launch or architecture upgrades, the remaining 66% one year ahead Capex reduction for the business segment stand-alone scenario equal to 30% Sustaining/maintenance capex are equal to depreciation Capex Page 2203/05/2011GINA D4.4 – Business and exploitation plan

23 GNSS for Innovative road Applications Company’s logo GINA Opex profile (2013-2030) - Business segment stand-alone Pan-EU system On-going Area 1 - 50% ongoing costs Opex distribution Area 1 Launch + ongoing costs Area 1 + Area 4&5 50% On- Going Area 4&5 Launch Area 2&3 Launch Pan-EU system on-going operating expenses equal to ~34M€ Page 2303/05/2011GINA D4.4 – Business and exploitation plan Area 1&4&5 + Area 2&3 50% On- Going Area 1 ongoing costs Area 1&4&5 on-going costs

24 GNSS for Innovative road Applications Company’s logo GINA Opex - Details by Phase Business segment stand-alone Page 2403/05/2011GINA D4.4 – Business and exploitation plan BACKUP

25 GNSS for Innovative road Applications Company’s logo GINA Opex profile (2013-2030) - Business + Private segments Pan-EU system On-going Area 1 - 50% ongoing costs Opex distribution Area 1 Launch + ongoing costs Area 1 + Area 4&5 50% On- Going Area 4&5 Launch Area 2&3 Launch Pan-EU system on-going operating expenses equal to ~57M€ Page 2503/05/2011GINA D4.4 – Business and exploitation plan Area 1&4&5 + Area 2&3 50% On- Going Area 1 ongoing costs Area 1&4&5 on-going costs

26 GNSS for Innovative road Applications Company’s logo GINA Opex - Details by Phase Business + Private segments Page 2603/05/2011GINA D4.4 – Business and exploitation plan BACKUP

27 GNSS for Innovative road Applications Company’s logo GINA Capex profile (2013-2030) – Business segment stand-alone Maintenance Area 1 system development and business start-up Capex distribution Area 4&5 system “Scaling-up” Overall about 621 Mln € Capex in 17 years Page 2703/05/2011GINA D4.4 – Business and exploitation plan Area 2&3 system “Scaling-up”

28 GNSS for Innovative road Applications Company’s logo GINA Capex - Details by Phase Business stand-alone segment Page 2803/05/2011GINA D4.4 – Business and exploitation plan BACKUP

29 GNSS for Innovative road Applications Company’s logo GINA Capex profile (2013-2030) – Business + Private segments Overall about 731 Mln € Capex in 17 years Page 2903/05/2011GINA D4.4 – Business and exploitation plan Capex distribution Maintenance Area 1 system development and business start-up Area 4&5 system “Scaling-up” Area 2&3 system “Scaling-up”

30 GNSS for Innovative road Applications Company’s logo GINA Capex - Details by Phase Business + Private segments Page 3003/05/2011GINA D4.4 – Business and exploitation plan BACKUP

31 GNSS for Innovative road Applications Company’s logo EGNOS signal and SG&A Costs - Main Assumptions Commissions to sales agent (either belonging to third parties or to an own sales force network) equal to 5% of total revenues (based on telecom benchmark where commissions go from 4 to 8% of revenues) Marketing costs Administration, Finance & Control costs Commercial costs Other Costs 0,9% of the revenues (based on telecom benchmarking) for advertising and promo costs for product launch, customer retention initiatives and brand/product awareness building Staff of 300 employees for the pan-European service provider at regime condition costing 80k€ each (2,2% of revenues) Rent and other minor costs assumed to be 0,7% of the revenues Lost revenues due to claims and frauds have been assumed: 0,5% of toll collected for Infrastructure operators 1% of toll collected for Municipalities EGNOS Signal Costs * GIROADS study relevant to EGNOS System operating costs: system operations costs between 30 and 35 million euros per annum (cost allocation for the road domain between 3 and 15 million euros per year) Galileo Concessionaire costs for GNSS services included EDAS equal to 1,5 € per annum* Page 3103/05/2011GINA D4.4 – Business and exploitation plan

32 GNSS for Innovative road Applications Company’s logo Content Introduction & Business model definition Addressable market and market potential General Cost Structure Business Case Scenarios Business Segment stand-alone scenario Business + Private Segments scenario Page 3203/05/2011GINA D4.4 – Business and exploitation plan

33 GNSS for Innovative road Applications Company’s logo GINA Penetration Strategy Area 2 Area 1 Area 3 Area 4 Area 5 5 geo-cluster have been identified : -Area 1- Central-Southern EU (Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Portugal and Austria) -Area 2 -Benelux & Great Britain (Netherlands, Belgium, Luxemburg, UK, Ireland ) -Area 3 - Northern Europe (Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania ) -Area 4 - Eastern Europe (Poland, Czech Rep., Slovakia, Slovenia, Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria ) -Area 5 - Mediterranean Island (Greece, Malta, Cipro) For an EETS provider, covering all Europe in a “big bang” fashion seems to be very tough both from an economical and operational point of view and a progressive geographical penetration seems to be the only feasible solution In order to define a progressive penetration plan, geo-clusters have been defined using the following criteria: - Geo-adjacency and Trans European Network (TEN-T) priority axis - Actual Road Charging scheme - Upcoming Road Charging projects Page 3303/05/2011GINA D4.4 – Business and exploitation plan

34 GNSS for Innovative road Applications Company’s logo GINA Penetration Plan Central- Southern Europe (Area 1) Benelux & Great Britain (Area 2) Northern Europe (Area 3) Eastern Europe (Area 4) Mediterrane an Island (Area 5) 2013201420152016201720182019202020212022201220112023 Launch of GINA for BUSINESS SEGMENT Annual Toll Coll. (2009) Nr. Countries Main Actual Scheme Penetration Plan 20,4 M€6 Toll system for all vehicles 0,3 M€5Toll free 0,4 M€6Toll free 0,9 M€7Vignette 0,5 M€3 Toll system for all vehicles The implementation plan have been defined with the objective of maximizing penetration and optimizing operational and capital expenditure Page 3403/05/2011GINA D4.4 – Business and exploitation plan Launch of GINA for CONSUMER SEGMENT Launch of GINA for CONSUMER + BUSINESS SEGMENT

35 GNSS for Innovative road Applications Company’s logo GINA Market Share The EETS market has been assumed to be characterized by the presence of few big players due to: -very high capital requirements -institutional restrictions (i.e. certification/ standardization issues on road charging) EETS Service providers may come from different industries, i.e.: -Oil companies -Banks & financial institutions -Telco operators -Road Operator/Toll Chargers Competitive Arena & GINA Market Share GINA Service Provider have been assumed to reach a market share around 30% of the EETS market GINA market leadership assumption have been driven by: -GINA SP would be one of the first entrant -GINA SP would have a technological competitive advantage based on EGNOS/Galileo performance Page 3503/05/2011GINA D4.4 – Business and exploitation plan

36 GNSS for Innovative road Applications Company’s logo GINA Business Case Scenarios - Main Assumptions Business + Private Segment Page 3603/05/2011GINA D4.4 – Business and exploitation plan Business stand-alone Segment EETS Overall Penetration in the Business Segment for each country belonging to the different areas has been supposed 8-10% in the launch year and growing 40% in the first 2 years, 8% for the following 8 years and 2% from the 10 th year on GINA Market Share 30% Price of Base package: from 12 €/month in 2015 to 8,5 €/month in 2030 Discount for the first submission year: 40% % of roaming: 20% EETS Overall Penetration in the Private Segment for each country belonging to the different areas has been supposed 3% in the launch year and growing 25% in the first 2 years, 8% for the following 4 years and 2% from the 7 th year on GINA Market Share 30% Price of Base package: from 4 €/month in 2018 to 3 €/month in 2030 Discount for the first submission year: 40% % of roaming: 10%

37 GNSS for Innovative road Applications Company’s logo Content Introduction & Business model definition Addressable market and market potential General Cost Structure Business Case Scenarios Business Segment stand-alone scenario Revenues generation potential Cost structure definition Profitability analysis Business + Private Segments scenario Page 3703/05/2011GINA D4.4 – Business and exploitation plan

38 GNSS for Innovative road Applications Company’s logo Market potential vs GINA Penetration - Business segment GINA Penetration (%) No. of commercial vehicles in EU27 (Mln) GINA Service Provider business segment users would pass from 0,7Mln in 2015 to 6Mln in 2030, with a penetration of ~12% on the overall addressable market at regime condition Page 3803/05/2011GINA D4.4 – Business and exploitation plan

39 GNSS for Innovative road Applications Company’s logo GINA Pricing Scheme - Business Segment Page 3903/05/2011GINA D4.4 – Business and exploitation plan Business Service Price Toll Chargers Basic Package Add On Smart OBU without GUI EFC E-CALL Fleet Management/ Basic 12-8,50 €/month 10 €/month 2 €/month 8 €/month Fleet Management/ Tracking & tracing Theft management Traffic info system Navigation services/ Dynamic re-routing Wireless GUI End Users Municipalities Percentage on toll collection 2% Percentage on toll collection 5% Price Evolution (€/month) In order to maximize penetration and service usage a 40% discount on the first year subscription fee has been assumed

40 GNSS for Innovative road Applications Company’s logo GINA Revenues streams evolution (2015-2030) User-fee Add-on VAS Motorway % fee Revenues streams break down End-user fees are the most important revenues stream accounting for ~66% of total revenues at regime conditions VAS fees account for about 31% of total revenues Page 4003/05/2011GINA D4.4 – Business and exploitation plan

41 GNSS for Innovative road Applications Company’s logo Content Introduction & Business model definition Addressable market and market potential Business Case Scenarios General Cost Structure Business Segment stand-alone scenario Revenues generation potential Cost structure definition Profitability analysis Business + Private Segments scenario Page 4103/05/2011GINA D4.4 – Business and exploitation plan

42 GNSS for Innovative road Applications Company’s logo GINA Cost structure elements The cost structure is referred to the GINA Service Provider intended as the company that sells different ITS service packages to final customers by aggregating inputs of specific service providers Main costs element are the following:  Telecommunication costs  VAS Provisioning costs  OBU related costs (Leasing, Installation, Assistance)  Core IT Infrastructure costs ( Central Infrastructure, Service Centers)  EGNOS signal guarantee costs  Lost Revenues  SG&A ( Selling commissions, marketing expenses, administrative and othe costs)  D&A (Depreciation and Amortization relevant to Capital Expenditure) 1 2 4 3 5 6 8 7 Page 4203/05/2011GINA D4.4 – Business and exploitation plan 9

43 GNSS for Innovative road Applications Company’s logo GINA Cost Structure evolution Cost Structure evolution 7 5 6 4 2 1 3 8 The cost structure remains approximately constant along the Business Plan horizon Page 4303/05/2011GINA D4.4 – Business and exploitation plan 9

44 GNSS for Innovative road Applications Company’s logo GINA Steady state (2030) cost breakdown Steady state (2030) cost breakdown Cost structure at steady-state condition (2030) amounts to ~ 770 M€ Telecom costs are the largest cost items, for ~55% of total costs (including VAS) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 Page 4403/05/2011GINA D4.4 – Business and exploitation plan 8

45 GNSS for Innovative road Applications Company’s logo Content Introduction & Business model definition Addressable market and market potential Business Case Scenarios General Cost Structure Business Segment stand-alone scenario Revenues generation potential Cost structure definition Profitability analysis Business + Private Segments scenario Page 4503/05/2011GINA D4.4 – Business and exploitation plan

46 GNSS for Innovative road Applications Company’s logo GINA Profitability EBITDA figures stably positive starting from 2017, growing to 206 M€ in 2030 (22% of revenues) Mln € Profitability evolution Page 4603/05/2011GINA D4.4 – Business and exploitation plan

47 GNSS for Innovative road Applications Company’s logo GINA EBIT formation – Steady-State (2030) Steady-State (2030) EBIT is around 18% of total revenues Telco costs are the largest cost item accounting for about 43% of total revenues, followed by OBU costs accounting for about 18% of total revenues Steady State (2028) EBIT formation Variable Costs Fixed costs Page 4703/05/2011GINA D4.4 – Business and exploitation plan

48 GNSS for Innovative road Applications Company’s logo GINA Free cash flow analysis Unlevered Free Cash flow positive after 6 years from start-up Cumulative FCF positive from 2025 (10 years after start-up) 2012 NPV is ~ 388 M€ assuming a WACC equal to 8% Unlevered Free cash flow (Mln €) Page 4803/05/2011GINA D4.4 – Business and exploitation plan

49 GNSS for Innovative road Applications Company’s logo Content Introduction & Business model definition Addressable market and market potential Business Case Scenarios General Cost Structure Business Segment stand-alone scenario Business + Private Segments scenario Revenues generation potential Cost structure definition Profitability analysis Page 4903/05/2011GINA D4.4 – Business and exploitation plan

50 GNSS for Innovative road Applications Company’s logo Market potential vs GINA Penetration – Private segment GINA Penetration (%) No. of cars in EU27 (Mln) GINA Service Provider private segment users would pass from 1,8 Mln in 2018 to 6,5 Mln in 2028, with a penetration of ~2% on the overall addressable market at regime condition Page 5003/05/2011GINA D4.4 – Business and exploitation plan

51 GNSS for Innovative road Applications Company’s logo GINA Pricing Scheme - Private Segment Page 5103/05/2011GINA D4.4 – Business and exploitation plan Private Service Price Toll Chargers Basic Package Add On End Users Municipalities Percentage on toll collection 2% Percentage on toll collection 5% Price Evolution (€/month) In order to maximize penetration and service usage a 40% discount on the first year subscription fee has been assumed Smart OBU without GUI EFC E-CALL 4-3 €/month 1 €/month 3 €/month Theft management Traffic info system Navigation services/ Dynamic re-routing Wireless GUI

52 GNSS for Innovative road Applications Company’s logo GINA Revenues streams evolution Business + Private (2015-2030) User-fee Add-on VAS Motorway % fee Urban % fee Revenues streams break down End-user fees remain the most important revenues stream accounting for ~65% of total revenues Fee from municipalities applied to consumer segment only are completely negligible Page 5203/05/2011GINA D4.4 – Business and exploitation plan Launch of GINA Offer for private segment

53 GNSS for Innovative road Applications Company’s logo GINA Revenues streams evolution Business + Private (2015-2030) User-fee Business Add-on VAS Business Motorway % fee Urban % fee Revenues streams break down Private segment revenues up to 30% of total revenues Page 5303/05/2011GINA D4.4 – Business and exploitation plan Launch of GINA Offer for private segment User-fee Private Add-on VAS Private * * Motorway % fee split 50-50 between Business and Private; Urban % fee assigned 100% to Private segment

54 GNSS for Innovative road Applications Company’s logo Content Introduction & Business model definition Addressable market and market potential Business Case Scenarios General Cost Structure Business Segment stand-alone scenario Business + Private Segments scenario Revenues generation potential Cost structure definition Profitability analysis Page 5403/05/2011GINA D4.4 – Business and exploitation plan

55 GNSS for Innovative road Applications Company’s logo GINA Cost Structure evolution (Business + Private) Cost Structure evolution 7 5 6 4 2 1 3 8 The cost structure remains approximately constant along the Business Plan horizon Page 5503/05/2011GINA D4.4 – Business and exploitation plan 9

56 GNSS for Innovative road Applications Company’s logo GINA Steady state (2030) cost breakdown (Business+Private) Steady state (2030) cost breakdown Cost structure at steady-state condition (2030) amounts to ~ 1080 M€ Telecom costs are the largest cost items, for ~55% of total costs (including VAS) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 Page 5603/05/2011GINA D4.4 – Business and exploitation plan 8

57 GNSS for Innovative road Applications Company’s logo Content Introduction & Business model definition Addressable market and market potential Business Case Scenarios General Cost Structure Business Segment stand-alone scenario Business + Private Segments scenario Revenues generation potential Cost structure definition Profitability analysis Page 5703/05/2011GINA D4.4 – Business and exploitation plan

58 GNSS for Innovative road Applications Company’s logo GINA Profitability (Business + Private) EBITDA figures stably positive starting from 2019, growing to 257 M€ in 2030 (20% of revenues) Mln € Profitability evolution Page 5803/05/2011GINA D4.4 – Business and exploitation plan

59 GNSS for Innovative road Applications Company’s logo GINA EBIT formation – Steady-State (2030)Business + Private Steady-State (2030) EBIT is around 16% of total revenues Telco costs are the largest cost item accounting for about 46% of total revenues, followed by OBU costs accounting for about 18% of total revenues Steady State (2028) EBIT formation Variable Costs Fixed costs Page 5903/05/2011GINA D4.4 – Business and exploitation plan

60 GNSS for Innovative road Applications Company’s logo GINA Free cash flow analysis (Business + Private) Unlevered Free Cash flow positive after 6 years from start-up Cumulative FCF positive from 2025 (10 years after start-up) 2012 NPV is ~ 485 M€ assuming a WACC equal to 8% Unlevered Free cash flow (Mln €) Page 6003/05/2011GINA D4.4 – Business and exploitation plan Launch of GINA Offer for private segment

61 GNSS for Innovative road Applications Company’s logo Scenarios comparison - Key Figures # Subscribers in 2030 Revenues in 2030 EBITDA in 2030 EBIT in 2030 NPV (e.c. 2012; WACC 8%) 6,1 Mln Page 6103/05/2011GINA D4.4 – Business and exploitation plan Scenario 1 (Business) Scenario 1 (Business) Scenario 1 (Business + Consumer) Scenario 1 (Business + Consumer) 936 Mln € 206 Mln € (22%) 168 Mln € (18%) 388 Mln € 12,7 Mln 1.291 Mln € 257 Mln € (19,9%) 212 Mln € (16,4%) 485 Mln € Enlargement of business perimeter to Consumer Segment increases overall profitability in absolute terms (EBIT from 168 Mln€ to 212 Mln€), but penalizes it in relative terms (from 18% to 16,4%)

62 GNSS for Innovative road Applications Company’s logo Monthly end-user fees are by far the most important source of revenues Toll chargers % fee have a very limited impact Executive Summary Business Model Market Potential Revenues Generation Cost Profitability Progressive geographical penetration through 5 main EU-27 geo-cluster: covering all Europe in a “big bang” mode not feasible from both financial and operational point of view Overall EETS market from ~2M vehicles in 2015 to ~42M vehicles in 2030 GINA EETS Service Provider market share ~30%, allowing to serve ~6M end-users in 2030 for the business segment and 6,5M end-users in the private segment The largest cost items are Telco and VAS costs (about 50% of total costs) followed by OBU related costs (~20%) GINA EETS Service Provider intended as the company that sells different ITS services to final customers aggregating inputs from specific content providers Two main service fees: -monthly user fee from end-users -percentage fee on toll collected from toll chargers Significant business opportunity with a good profitability in the long term (EBITDA at regime condition about 20% of Revenues) Two main issues: -Long break-even period that requires a significant start-up stress (cumulative FCF positive after 10 years) -High Sensitivity to price changes Page 6203/05/2011GINA D4.4 – Business and exploitation plan


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