1. Bridging the Macro and the Micro: Integrating Empirical Realities with Scenario Analysis Elusiyan Eludoyin Doctoral Researcher UCL Energy Institute

2. Map Aim Concept Holistic Framework Methodological Approach Conclusion

3. Aim Policy for sustainable provision and adoption of modern energy services. Sustainability of the transition for different consumers, under changing environments. Nature of the transition Suitability of policy mechanisms for given socio-economic conditions Consumer and Supplier relations – How Policy impacts? Government/ Dev. Agency Policy Investors Modern Energy Service Suppliers Consumers MacroMicro

4. Concept Transition (consumer) –Energy ladder, fuel stacking –Kowsari and Zerrifi 2011 – three dimensional assessment (energy services) Decision making (consumer) –Behavioural economics, technology adoption theory, social and environmental psychology, sociology –Wilson et al 2007 – various economical and non-economical factors ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Holistic transition –Beyond financial necessities –Stakeholder engagement and nature, linked to underlying goals (sustainability). –Households, livelihoods; SMEs/public institutions, avoided costs/value addition –Suppliers, organisational objective (profit, not-for profit)

5. TRANSITION service CONSUMERS SUPPLIERS demand Endogenous Exogenous CONDITIONS MARKET ENVIRONMENT INVESTORS Type of investment Contractual terms Partnerships Economy Energy Resources Industrialization Sovereignty Political stability, Transparency Resource selection Liquidity Regulation Technology Wider sector structure Framework

6. Base year5 years10 years Scenario End 20 years Market Environment Supplier choices Consumer Choices LEAP Market Environment Supplier choices Consumer Choices LEAP Market Environment Supplier choices Consumer Choices LEAP Approach – Scenario Analysis AHP 1.Reference Scenario – Current trends 2.Existing Commitments – Broad policy commitments and plans 3.Renewable Energy Scenario – Explorative; competitiveness of renewable energy

7. AHP – Analytical Hierarchy Process -Necessary livelihood needs (livelihood capitals) -Linked to Exogenous factors -Necessary operational measures (sustainability factors) -Linked to exogenous factors Consumers (e.g. household) Suppliers Exogenous factors based on relevant policy criteria – Supply-side Policy Criteria Financing mechanism (access to credit) Subsidy level (direct funding support) Cost of tech components (Tax incentives) Finance/Funding channels (REA, MFI) Technical capacity (development agency policy) Previous Level of Demand (based on LEAP output) Demand-side Policy Criteria Financing mechanism (access to credit) Other Welfare needs (policy alignment) Service Type from Producers (based on supplier AHP analysis)

8. Conclusion Limitations –Dependent on assumptions (iteration process, market picture) –Participant understanding of questions –Secondary data availability Willing practitioners To provide knowledge on the suitability of certain policy actions on country and local dynamics.

9. Thank you for your attention Questions and Comments please