2. LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS TURKEY PART 3: EARTHQUAKES Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA

3. TURKEY

4. NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED DISASTERS IN TURKEY FLOODS WINDSTORMS EARTHQUAKES WILDFIRES ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE HIGH BENEFIT/COST FROM BECOMING DISASTER NRESILIENT GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE AND COMMUNITIES

5. Natural Phenomena That Cause Disasters Planet Earth’s heat flow causes movement of lithospheric plates, which causes faulting, which causes EARTH- QUAKES

6. TECTONIC PLATES

8. ANATOLIAN PLATE AND NORTH ANATOLIAN FAULT

9. TURKEY’S SEISMICITY: 1900 TO PRESENT

10. ELEMENTS OF RISK AND DISASTER

11. HAZARDSHAZARDS ELEMENTS OF EARTHQUAKE RISK EXPOSUREEXPOSURE VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY LOCATIONLOCATION RISKRISK

12. EARTHQUAKE HAZARD MODEL EARTHQUAKE HAZARD MODEL SEISMICITY TECTONIC SETTING & FAULTS TECTONIC SETTING & FAULTS

13. IDENTIFY THE SEISMICALLY ACTIVE FAULTS

14. EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS ARE POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS

15. EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS SURFACE FAULT RUPTURE, GROUND SHAKING, GROUND FAILURE (LIQUEFACTION, LANDSLIDES), AFTERSHOCKS

16. TECTONIC DEFORMATION EARTHQUAKE TSUNAMI GROUND SHAKING FAULT RUPTURE FOUNDATION FAILURE SITE AMPLIFICATION LIQUEFACTION LANDSLIDESAFTERSHOCKSSEICHE DAMAGE/LOSS DAMAGE/ LOSS DAMAGE/LOSS

17. GROUND SHAKING

18. PROBABILISTIC GROUND SHAKING HAZARD

19. EXPOSURE MODEL EXPOSURE MODEL LOCATION OF STRUCTURE IMPORTANCE AND VALUE OF STRUCTURE AND CONTENTS

20. VULNERABILITY MODEL VULNERABILITY MODEL QUALITY OF DESIGN AND CONSTRUCTION ADEQUACY OF LATERAL-FORCE RESISTING SYSTEM

21. UNREINFORCED MASONRY, BRICK OR STONE REINFORCED CONCRETE WITH UNREINFORCED WALLS INTENSITY REINFORCED CONCRETE WITH REINFORCEDWALLS STEEL FRAME ALL METAL & WOOD FRAME VVIVIIVIIIIX 3530 25 20 15 10 5 0 MEAN DAMAGE RATIO, % OF REPLACEMENT VALUE CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS HAVE DIFFERENT VULNERABILITIES TO GROUND SHAKING

22. INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING EARTHQUAKES SOIL AMPLIFICATION PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT (SURFACE FAULTING & GROUND FAILURE) IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN FIRE FOLLOWING RUPTURE OF UTILITIES LACK OF DETAILING AND CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS INATTENTION TO NON- STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS CAUSES OF DAMAGE “DISASTER LABORATORIES”

23. A DISASTER CAN HAPPEN WHEN THE POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS OF AN EARTHQUAKE INTERACT WITH TURKEY’S COMMUNITIES

24. A DISASTER is --- --- the set of failures that overwhelm the capability of a community to respond without external help when three continuums: 1) people, 2) community (i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, and social constructs), and 3) complex events (e.g., earthquakes, floods,…) intersect at a point in space and time.

25. Disasters are caused by s ingle- or multiple-event natural hazards that, (for various reasons), cause extreme levels of mortality, morbidity, homelessness, joblessness, economic losses, or environmental impacts.

26. THE REASONS ARE... When it does happen, the functions of the community’s buildings and infrastructure will be LOST because they are UNPROTECTED with the appropriate codes and standards.

27. THE REASONS ARE... The community is UN- PREPARED for what will likely happen, not to mention the low-probability of occurrence— high-probability of adverse consequences event.

28. THE REASONS ARE... The community has NO DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIO or WARNING SYSTEM in place as a strategic framework for early threat identification and coordinated local, national, regional, and international countermeasures.

29. THE REASONS ARE... The community LACKS THE CAPACITY TO RESPOND in a timely and effective manner to the full spectrum of expected and unexpected emergency situations.

30. THE REASONS ARE... The community is INEFFICIENT during recovery and reconstruction because it HAS NOT LEARNED from either the current experience or the cumulative prior experiences.

31. ERZINCAN: TURKEY’S WORST EARTHQUAKE DISASTER DECEMBER 26, 1939 A STRIKE-SLIP FAULT EARTHQUAKE 32,700 DEATHS M7.8

32. ERZINCAN

33. ERZINCAN COLLAPSE

34. IZMIT: TURKEY’S 2 ND WORST EARTHQUAKE DISASTER AUGUST 17, 1999 A STRIKE-SLIP FAULT EARTHQUAKE 17,118 DEATHS M7.6

35. COLLAPSES

36. IZMIT HIGHLIGHTED TODAY’S PROBLEM: SOFT-STOREY BUILDINGS

37. THE REASON: LACK OF, OR INADEQUATE PROTECTION (I.E., ADOPTION AND IMPLEMENTATION OF A MODERN BUILDING CODE)

38. THE ALTERNATIVE TO AN EARTHQUAKE DISASTER IS EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE

39. TURKEY’S COMMUNITIES DATA BASES AND INFORMATION HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS INVENTORY VULNERABILITY LOCATION EARTHQUAKE RISK RISK ACCEPTABLE RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE PREPAREDNESS PROTECTION FORECASTS/SCENARIOS EMERGENCY RESPONSE RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION POLICY OPTIONS

40. LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL EARTHQUAKES PREPAREDNESS FOR ALL OF THE LIKELY HAZARDS AND RISKS IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

41. LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL EARTHQUAKES PROTECTION OF BUILDINGS AND INFRASTRUCTURE AGAINST COLLAPSE AND LOSS OF FUNCTION IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

42. LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL EARTHQUAKES TECHNOLOGIES THAT FACILITATE THREAT IDENTI- FICATION AND/OR PREPARATION OF DISASTER SCENARIOS ARE ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

43. LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL EARTHQUAKES TIMELY EMERGENCY RESPONSE IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

44. EARTHQUAKES IN TURKEY ARE INEVITABLE ---SO, DON’T WAIT FOR ANOTHER REMINDER OF THE IMPORTANCE OF BECOMING EARTHQUAKE DIS- ASTER RESILIENT.

45. STRATEGIC COLLABORATION (I.E., WORKING TOGETHER ON A COMMON GOAL) FOR BECOMING EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENT

48. EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES

49. EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR EQ—TS DISASTER RESILIENCE MEASURMENT TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., GROUND SHAKING; STRAIN) INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY (E.G., GIS) RISK MODELING (E.G., HAZUS, INSURANCE UNDERWRITING) MEASURMENT TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., GROUND SHAKING; STRAIN) INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY (E.G., GIS) RISK MODELING (E.G., HAZUS, INSURANCE UNDERWRITING) DATABASES DISASTER SCENARIOS ZONATION OF POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS AS A TOOL FOR POLICY DECISIONS DATABASES DISASTER SCENARIOS ZONATION OF POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS AS A TOOL FOR POLICY DECISIONS

50. EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR EQ—TS DISASTER REWILIENCE AUTOMATED CONSTRUCTION EQUIPMEMT PREFABRICATION AND MODULARIZATION ADVANCED MATERIALS (E.G., COMPOSITES) COMPUTER AIDED DESIGN PERFORMANCE BASED CODES AND STANDARDS ACTIVE AND PASSIVE ENERGY DISSIPATION DEVICES (E.G., BASE ISOLATION) REAL-TIME MONITORING AND WARNING SYSTEMS COMPUTER AIDED DESIGN PERFORMANCE BASED CODES AND STANDARDS ACTIVE AND PASSIVE ENERGY DISSIPATION DEVICES (E.G., BASE ISOLATION) REAL-TIME MONITORING AND WARNING SYSTEMS

51. EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR EQ—TS DISASTER RESILIENCE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF PHYSICAL EFFECTS MEASUREMENT TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., SEISMIC NETWORKS, TSUNAMI WARNING SYSTEM) PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF PHYSICAL EFFECTS MEASUREMENT TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., SEISMIC NETWORKS, TSUNAMI WARNING SYSTEM) DATABASES SEISMIC ENGINEERING MAPS: GROUND SHAKING, GTOUND FAILURE, TSUNAMI WAVE RUNIP DISASTER SCENARIOS WARNING SYSTEMS RISK MODELING (E.G., HAZUS, INSURANCE UNDERWRITING) DATABASES SEISMIC ENGINEERING MAPS: GROUND SHAKING, GTOUND FAILURE, TSUNAMI WAVE RUNIP DISASTER SCENARIOS WARNING SYSTEMS RISK MODELING (E.G., HAZUS, INSURANCE UNDERWRITING)