1. First Generation Vulnerability Assessments: What can/should they do? 25 July 2012 Prof. Burkhard von Rabenau, Ph.D. GIZ Environmentally and Climate-Friendly Urban Development in Da Nang (ECUD)

2. Motivation Da Nang Vulnerability Assessments PEMSEA (2004) focused on Disaster Risks DaCRISS, JICA (2007-2010) focused on Urban Strategy ACCCRN, Rockefeller (2008-2010) CC Adaptation City/CCCO, Da Nang PC (2011) CC Adaptation Based on existing experience How should small communities prepare CC assessment? How can they do so w/o assistance? What parts of Da Nang methodology should be adopted, what discarded? What should the objectives be of a 1 st Generation Assessment? For action planning, what should be done now, what should be postponed for later?

3. Key Messages First Generation Assessments  Principal purpose is Mobilization and Start-up. There are many iterations to come.  Major concrete decisions come only after mainstreaming  Climate change adaptation is one of many objectives, must be balanced against others of equal importance Replication with lesser resources is possible  Often CC Assessments do both too much and too little  Limit objectives to awareness, exploration, work program  Use existing regional CC rather than own forecasts  Be incomplete, limit analysis to priority hazards  Avoid detail not later used  Cooperate with others  Focus on plausibility and story line, quantify later  Use indicators rather than abstract concepts  Use disaster risk and DRR as starting point, is already familiar

5. Climate Change and Its Impacts Scenario Analysis (exists)  Use MoNRE Regional scenarios: Sea level rise, change in temperature and rainfall  Variations from regional average too small to matter Identify secondary/tertiary hazards Type of hazards  Flooding, inundation: area, depth, frequency, location  Saline intrusion: area, impact  Storms, tai Source of Information  Use data from DRR action plans/Flood Committee Identify Historical Disasters Mostly exists for major disasters Use ‘Climate Plus Approach’ – current hazards + things will get worse Rely on current situation as starting point Limited exposure forecasts, vulnerability horizon non-specific Uses capacity experience with recent disasters

6. Exposure Analysis Cause/Effect  Exposure determines vulnerability and risk  Reverse also holds: risk changes how people behave Time Horizon  Identical to climate change scenario  In Climate Plus Approach say city & income grow or say double in 20-40 years  In Full Approach specify time, say t = 0, 20, 40 years Key elements Base the elements on indicators used in vulnerability analysis and the need of the risk analysis  Scale: Population, employment  Unit Values: Income, assets (relate value land, life GDP pc)  Land Use: Direction of growth relative to hazards, density  Policies: Conservation policies, building regulations

7. Vulnerability Assessment Cause Effect  Depend on two scenarios: Hazards and Exposure  Vulnerabilities can impact policies and hence exposure Types  Capital Cost ($): Human, Man-made, Natural resources (Loss of housing, infrastructure, forests, land, quality of land etc)  Current Operating Losses ($/unit time): Loss of wages, output, productivity, etc) Vulnerability Descriptors  Scoring: Abstract, difficult to give meaning, difficult to aggregate  Verbal explanation: Intuitive, concrete,  Indicators: Can be quantified; can be in intensive form Loss of life (in VND) due to storms per 100,000 population Income loss from flooding as % of monthly GDP Hectares of land lost (in has or VND) due to erosion

8. Risk Assessment: Qualitative

9. Risk Analysis: Quantitative Illustration Loss of Life  From exposure analysis: Population 1,000,000; income pc pa $1,000  From vulnerability analysis annual loss of life per 100,000 population: 0.5  Value of life: 100 times annual income (based on people’s own risk behavior and revealed preferences)  Current annual risk: $1,000x100x 0.5 x 1,000,000/100,000 = $500,000  Future annual risk (40 years hence): Population 2m, income pc pa $3,000, future loss per 100,000 is 0.6 Annual Expected Loss: $3,000 x 100 x 0.6 x 2,000,000/100,000 = $ 3,600,000  Present Value, Discount Rate 5%; Horizon 40 years; PWF Loss of Land (due to salinity, erosion, sea level rise)  Exposure analysis: Avg value of eroding land $10,000/ha; $30,000/ha in 40 yrs  Vulnerability analysis annual loss of land: 6 hectares now, 10 has in 40 years  Current annual risk: $10,000 x 6 = $60,000  Future annual risk (40 years hence): $30,000 x 10 = $300,000  Present Value, Discount Rate 5%; Horizon 40 years; PWF

10. Adaptive Capacity Da Nang Typology Differentiated by type of hazard and type of capacity. Seems too detailed and not sufficiently intuitive  (i) Regulations, policies; (ii) Capacity Building (iii) Promotion, education; (iv) Scientific research; (v) Construction, infrastructure; (vi) Tree planting Modifications  Add capacities: Governance Planning and coordination capacity Finance Willingness to act  Many capacities cross hazard, no need to evaluate by hazard

11. Strategic Options For each hazard review Instruments for protection, preparedness, coping, recovery  Policies, regulations to modify behavior  Direct interventions through infrastructure, risk management  Adaptive capacity (knowledge systems, planning, governance, management, resources) Example Drought Supply Side Instruments  Reservoir construction, evaporation control, water storage systems  Water management Demand Side Instruments  Price, shadow pricing for resource value  Regulation of indirect demand: Appliances and Fixtures, landscaping  Building codes  Incentives, penalties, fees, surcharges  Curtailment, rationing

12. Short-Term Actions Reasons for Postponement of Immediate Action  Impact of Discounting: Benefits are far in the future, cost is now  Uncertainty declines  Productivity gains from technical change available to postponement  Idle capacity cost offsets economies of scale Reasons for Immediate Action  Long gestation period  No regrets  Irreversibility, foreclosure of opportunities  Gains from economies of scale exceed idle capacity cost Focus on building adaptive capacity  Knowledge systems Data and indicator development, monitoring and evaluation, data management Building scientific capacity Preparation of models, what if questions  Planning, management and governance systems  Resources and Finance

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