1. Cars in the Future Energy Policy, Forecasting & Modelling Hannah Daly Sustainable Energy Research Group Environmental Research Institute University College Cork ERI Research Open Day December 15 th, 2010

2. “Car of the Future”

9. Summary of Motivations: Climate change & CO 2 Peak oil Security of supply Volatile oil prices EU targets Cars are particularly hard

10. Energy Modelling Bottom-Up vs Top-Down Simulation Optimisation

11. Bottom-Up Car Stock Model 1. Disaggregate the fleet 1. Fuel type 2. Age 3. Engine size (cc band) 2. Characteristics of each type of car 3. Econometric drivers: activity and sales 4. Demographic forecasting

12. 1. Disaggregated Car Stock 2008

13. 2. Scrappage Profiles

14. 3. Econometric Drivers Annual Sales & Vkm driven by GNP & fuel price Elasticities derived from historic regression

15. 3. Econometric Drivers

16. 4. Demographic Forecasting

17. 5. Energy Calculation

18. Scenario Analysis Change parameters to test policies.. –Type of salesEV, new-car efficiency targets –Economy & fuel priceImpact of recession –Scrappage profileScrappage scheme –Activity Modal shift, demand reduction Compare energy, CO 2 to baseline

19. EV Scenario: 2020 Stock Profile

20. EV Results

21. EV Results: Energy & CO 2 Displaced

22. EV Results: Renewable Energy

23. Biogas: CNG vehicles 10% CNG vehicle target Lower carbon content Same efficiency as Diesel cars Possibility of renewable biomethane: 7.5%

24. Result: CNG vs EV

25. RES-T

26. Future Direction TIMES model: –What is the cost optimal technology mix to reach targets? Modal shift –What are investment costs and payoffs for public & non-motorised transport? Socio-economic technology modelling: –How does the changing socio-economic profile effect modal and technology choice?

27. Cars in the Future Energy Policy, Forecasting & Modelling Hannah Daly Sustainable Energy Research Group Environmental Research Institute University College Cork ERI Research Open Day December 15 th, 2010