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Published byEric Ellis Modified over 9 years ago
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Angus Deaton, Princeton University
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Successes Here in the World Bank, I should say something about the 2005 round of the ICP One great success Extensions of content Implementing a broad welfare agenda Health as well as wealth Well-being seen more broadly Talk about achievements in comparability Extensions in availability Another Bank success
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2005 Round of the ICP For academics, internationally comparable accounts are among the most important of all development data sets World Development Indicators Penn World Table ICP 2005 huge improvement over ICP 1993 Central control, general management of WB Integrated global system 1993 round had lost credibility: uncoordinated regions Changed our view of the world
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Broadening scope Development is about broad based improvement Income is important So are other parts of well-being Health, education, life evaluation, emotional well- being, mental health Major improvements in measurement, availability, and comparability of such data world wide Empirical implementation of the Sen agenda Deprivation and well-being in broad spaces
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Examples System of Demographic and Health Surveys Recently a major tool for health assessment in poverty, deprivation, and health Major source for infant and child mortality In countries without complete vital statistics Most of the poor countries in the world Also weighs and measures children (and increasingly) adults Documentation of malnourishment around the world All of this is on a naturally comparable basis One of my favorite examples: height of women..
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165 170 678910 Log of real GDP per head in year of birth Average height South Asia Africa Latin America & Caribbean Europe US China Central Asia 6
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Other important examples DHS is only one example And researchers have a lot of catching up to do Many others WHO World Health Surveys UNICEF MICS Surveys These like DHS easily available and downloadable Many more income and expenditure household surveys exist and many more available World Bank leadership of International Household Survey Network Helping to standardize, store, disseminate Technical support for metadata & standardization
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Database for development World Development Indicators, with many millions of subscribers worldwide Open Data Initiative WDI is new openly available on line Anyone in the world with access to the internet can instantly access these data Takes us beyond academics (who were OK) to governments, NGOs, journalists, around the world Includes other Bank data, projects, and data tools Exactly the sort of global public goods that the World Bank should be providing Likely to greatly expand and improve development discourse, nationally and internationally
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Private sector too Gallup World Poll aim is to sample all the population of the world Since 2006, run identical surveys in 155 countries National samples of 1,000 or so in each country Most countries surveyed in most years Many hard to survey countries, e.g. Myanmar, China, Cuba, 36 countries in sub-Saharan Africa Collects detailed data on self-reported well-being Emotional experience as well as life-evaluation Demographics Income (much better than one might think) These data fill an important gap in the world But they are proprietary and a Gallup commercial asset
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Outstanding tasks Mortality data are seriously incomplete Especially in the poorest countries, especially for adults “imputing” data from best sources is useful, but not a substitute WHO world mortality database is a great resources (under- used) but not useful for the countries where it is most needed Household survey data Used to be the leaders, now lagging Major inconsistencies (e.g. rate of growth) with NAS LSMS project did many important things, but never could produce internationally comparable surveys (like DHS for example) The next big priority
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More outstanding National accounts Very weak in many poor countries Very weak in some not-so poor, rapidly growing countries I have argued that growth transitions put special strains on old systems, including possible overstatement of GDP growth rates, for example. SNA may assure comparability, but adherence to SNA is variable from one country to another Reconciliation with household surveys has to be open to revision of NAS Politically difficult to revise down fast growth rates
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Improving national accounts For ICP, technical assistance to improve national accounts is now seen as central With more regular ICP, large revisions are going to be harder to defend Sarkozy Commission challenges To many currently existing treatments in GDP More dialog between economists & NA statisticians To develop better “green” accounting To develop measures of self-reported well-being Ready to move from academia to statistical offices US example: well-being module in ATUS about to be released
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Thank you! Especially for inviting a user to participate in these discussions today
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